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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
A bit of a range of temperatures today. Cooler northeast. Warmer southwest.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching Thursday night and Friday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Monday: 4. Low risk.
Monday night. 4. Low risk.
Tuesday through Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Some wetting rain is expected across parts of SEMO and far southwest Kentucky before noon today. Temperatures will be mild with low mixing heights and a moderate east to northeast breeze. Mixing heights increase a bit for Monday with a stronger north wind. Above normal temperatures are forecast much of the rest of the week with unsettled conditions developing late week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Monday, February 05, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 5:24 PM .
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Monday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: North 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:18 AM
Moonset: 12:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday, February 06, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 5:24 PM .
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds from the southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast becoming east southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:24 AM
Moonset: 1:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:25 AM
Moonset: 2:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday, February 08, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely. A chance of thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 6:17 AM
Moonset: 3:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday, February 09, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty. Becoming west southwest.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a few remaining showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 2 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 5:16 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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- Mild temperatures this week. Well above average temperatures.
- Cold front arrives Thursday PM into Friday with showers and perhaps thunderstorms.
- I continue to watch mid to late February into March for several cold shots.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone!
I hope you had a nice weekend.
We are going to have a warming trend as we move through the week.
A quiet weather pattern today into Thursday morning. There will be time periods where clouds will attempt to push into the region from the west northwest and northeast. Overall, the sun will win out today.
We will need to watch clouds tomorrow over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Otherwise, nice weather.
Temperatures will be well above average into Saturday. As a matter of fact, Friday’s temperatures may be 20 degrees above average! That is quite amazing. What a flip this pattern is from what we were experiencing a few weeks ago.
You can expect sixties Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
How many degrees above average will temperatures be?
Average highs for this time of the year are around mid to upper forties. Average lows are in the mid to upper 20s.
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Of course, with those warm temperatures will come rain chances. Even a few thunderstorms.
There could be a small risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday, but for now the Storm Prediction Center has not placed us in a risk zone. I will keep a close eye on it.
The concern would be damaging wind. Again, for now the risk appears low.
Rain totals Thursday afternoon/evening into Friday evening.
I am monitoring Saturday through Monday for low end rain chances. Confidence in rain during that time period is lower.
I continue to watch a few shots of cold air as we move deeper into February and early March.
The GFS does show that general idea, but details remain murky (it is a long way off). Also, there remain questions about whether the cold air will be dry or deliver some snow and wintry mix chances. Monitor updates.
The blue and pink represent below average temperatures.
February 17th
February 18th
February 21st
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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ZoomRadar
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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