Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 3rd and 4th: Cold Saturday, but warming trend on the way

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.

You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well


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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

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Charity Fund Raiser for Guardian Family Services.  Shane Parker, aka The Bear On The Air, Bear-B-Que Catering Co., will be selling Rib’s for $20 a slab. Preorder by calling 618-524-4357 or 618-645-6444. Pickup Saturday, February 4th at Metropolis Big John’s between 11 am and 2 pm.

There will be some extra RIBS sold on Saturday, as well!  If you missed out then stop by and see what Shane has for you.  He may still have a few slabs!!!  I think he has 16 left.

Phase ONE of the fund raiser is complete.  The Guardian Family Services is trying to raise $7500.00.  That will be matched by Beau Dodson Weather/Shadow Angel Foundation.

Watch for more information on additional projects as we move into February.

 

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users.  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

 

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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February 3, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear with just a few passing clouds.  Cold.  Below normal temperatures. 
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 16 to 25    IL ~14 to 22    KY ~ 15 (NW KY) to 24    TN ~ 20 to 25
Winds
:  North winds become east and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts likely
Wind Chill when applicable
:  15 to 20 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Moonrise will be at 11:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:30 p.m.  First Quarter

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February 4, 2017
Saturday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cooler.  Below normal temperatures.  Increasing clouds during the afternoon hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 38 to 45     IL ~ 38 to 45     KY ~ 38 to 45    TN ~ 42 to 46  
Winds
:  Southeast and south winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the afternoon and evening hours
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:53  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:23 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 3 
Moonrise 
will be at 11:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous


Saturday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Gusty winds, at times.  An isolated light shower/sleet/snow shower possible.  Data continues to trend drier and drier for Saturday night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Perhaps some wet roadways.   Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 32 to 36    IL ~ 28 to 36    KY ~ 32 to 36    TN ~ 32 to 38
Winds
:  South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 28 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  20 to 30 degrees
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  Unlikely.  Small chance for sleet pellets or flurries.
Moonrise will be at 11:42 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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February 5, 2017
Sunday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Some early morning clouds and then quite a bit of sun with passing clouds.  Not as cold.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 48 to 54    IL ~ 48 to 54    KY ~ 50 to 55    TN ~ 52 to 56  
Winds
:  Southwest winds and west winds at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:52  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:24 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 3 
Moonrise 
will be at 12:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbous


Sunday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds overnight.  A 20% for a shower after 2 am
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Perhaps some wet roadways.   
Is severe weather expected
?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps isolated after 2 am
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 32 to 38    IL ~ 32 to 36    KY ~ 34 to 38    TN ~ 35 to 40
Winds
:  Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable
:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 12:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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More information on the UV index.  Click here

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 

 

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Warming trend by Sunday
  2.  Thunderstorm chances next week
  3.  Colder Tuesday into Friday
  4.  Precipitation?

Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Winter Weather Outlook tab.  These are updated at least twice each week.

The winter weather outlook was updated on Tuesday, January 31st

If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted into text option three.  The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com website.

Friday night into Sunday
Confidence:  High

Calm weather Friday night into Sunday.

It will be chilly on Friday night and Saturday morning.  Lows will dip into the upper teens and lower 20’s over the northern half of the region and lower to middle 20’s elsewhere.   Any wind will make it feel a bit colder.

The good news is that the cold blast is short lived.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 30’s to middle 40’s on Saturday afternoon and into the upper 40’s to middle 50’s on Sunday!  That will push us above normal in the temperature department.

Mix of sun and clouds on Saturday.  Some question about how much sun there will actually be.  At least intervals of clouds.

A system will brush our region on Saturday night.  A few clouds and a small chance for sprinkles or a flurry can’t be ruled out.  No measurable precipitation is anticipated.

Here is the NAM future-cast radar for Saturday evening.  Perhaps a few spotty showers.

Some gusty winds likely Saturday night, as well.

Wind gust map

A few clouds on Sunday morning, otherwise we should see quite a bit of sun.  Sunday would be the pick day of the weekend.

Here are the Sunday afternoon temperatures.  Not warm, but better than Friday and Saturday.

 

Sunday night into Tuesday
Confidence:  Medium

The big weather story will be a deepening area of low pressure that will push through the central United States into the Great Lakes.  This system will pull warmer air into our region.  Highs on Monday will likely top out in the 60’s.

There will be increasing chances for showers and perhaps thunderstorms on Monday and Monday night.

A cold front will sweep through the region on Monday night into Tuesday night.  This front will be accompanied by gusty thunderstorms.  I can not rule out severe thunderstorms.  Let’s keep an eye on it.  A number of ingredients are coming together for severe weather.  Still early for details.

Let’s check out a few parameters

Click links to discover what each parameter is used for

CAPE

Lifted Index

EHI (is used to find spin/shear in the atmosphere)

Lapse Rates

Here is the dewpoint map for Tuesday

Remember, 58 and above is a concern for dewpoints.

Here are the gradient wind gusts for Tuesday.  Gradient winds occur when the air pressure falls or rises rapidly.

Another round of precipitation is possible Wednesday night into Thursday night.  Still a bit early to know whether this might be snow.

Temperature anomalies

Check out February 19, 2017

Wow.  If the GFS is right then WELL above normal temperatures mid-month.

 

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

The official NOAA rainfall total forecast is below.

Click image to enlarge

Most of this falls on Monday into Wednesday

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Saturday morning low temperatures

Saturday afternoon high temperatures

Sunday morning low temperatures


Sunday Afternoon high temperatures

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No major changes to the ongoing forecast.

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Monitoring Tuesday for strong storms.  Monitor updates.  Still early to know for sure what will happen.

 

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday night through Sunday night:  No severe weather concerns.

Monday through Tuesday:  Monitor updates.  Some storms are possible Monday into Tuesday.  Timing of the system will need to be monitored.  I can’t rule out strong storms, but confidence this far out is low.  Closely monitoring Tuesday for the strongest storms.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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