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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Saturday Night – Mostly clear sky conditions. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Increasing towards morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – High winds. Partly to mostly sunny. Perhaps increasing clouds in the afternoon. Mild. A late afternoon shower possible. Low chance.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures 66-72 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 15-30 mph. Gusts above 40 mph possible. Peak winds between 10 am and 3 pm.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none. Perhaps a stray shower towards evening. Low chance.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Gusty/high winds for boaters.
Sunday Night – A period of clouds. Cool. A chance for spotty showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 20 mph. Winds will shift to W/NW late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated/Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? Breezy early in the evening. Maybe some wet roadways.
Monday – Partly sunny and breezy. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures 58-64 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 4-8 mph. Winds becoming east and then southeast late morning. Then south/southeast in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None expected.
Monday Night – Increasing clouds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% early and then 40% towards Tuesday morning.
Coverage of precipitation? Some chances towards Tuesday morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible late.
Tuesday – Quite a few clouds. An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures may vary across the region. This will depend on the track of the area of low pressure. Goes south and we will be colder. Well north and we will end up mild. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Lightning possible.
Tuesday Night – A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Turning colder. Small chance of a flurry at the end of the system.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming northwest at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds. Colder.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? None.
What impact is expected? None.
Will monitor another precipitation system for Wednesday night or Thursday.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Spring usually means more active weather
2. Windy Sunday
3. A shower possible Sunday night
4. Rain chances increase on Tuesday/rumble thunder possible
Sunday forecast:
A cold front will approach our region on Sunday afternoon and night. This system does not have much moisture to work with. But, it will deliver strong and gusty winds to the region.
Here is the 12 pm Sunday wind gust map. Windy!
Peak winds should occur between 10 am and 3 pm. Widespread 30-40 mph winds are expected. Gusts above 40 mph likely. Boaters use care.
Temperatures on Sunday will reach spring fever levels. Upper 60s and some 70 degree readings. Oh yeahhhhhh
The cold front will push through the region on Sunday night. I can’t rule out a stray shower late Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Rainfall totals would be less than 0.10″.
Here is the dew point may for Sunday evening. Not much recovery of moisture into the region. Thus, the front will push through mostly dry. Had dew points been in the upper 50s to middle 60s then I would expect a bit more in the way of precipitation.
This dew point map shows dew points mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s ahead of the cold front. And, dropping into the 30s behind the cold front (dew points). Dew points are a great way to measure moisture in the atmosphere. A bit better than using relative humidity.
Monday will deliver a few clouds, but calm weather.
A stronger storm system will move into the region on Tuesday. An area of low pressure will push out of Missouri into Illinois. The system will pass to our north. This places our region in the warm sector. I can’t rule out some lightning. The severe weather threat appears to be low. Dew points will mostly be in the 50s. A bit low for severe weather. But, I will monitor trends.
You can see the dew point map for Tuesday afternoon. The yellow represents higher dew points. Quite a bit of moisture. How far north this deeper moisture will spread is a bit of a question mark. This will be dependent on how far north the low tracks. The further north the low tracks the better chance we have for a few thunderstorms.
Zooming in a bit. Here is what the NAM is forecasting for dew points on Tuesday. Fairly low. If the area of low pressure is deeper then these numbers would increase. The higher the dew points the heavier the rain and the better chance for thunderstorms.
The NAM model guidance is not as strong with the area of low pressure as other data. Both the GFS and EC are a deeper and more organized system. This leaves some questions on how much rain will fall on Tuesday.
Here is the NAM guidance surface map for Tuesday afternoon. Not much of a surface low reflection on the NAM.
Green would be rain. The lines represent isobars. Equal lines of pressure. Image is from weatherbell.com
Here is the GFS guidance. It shows an area of low pressure over Missouri and Illinois. A bit stronger than the NAM. This is the 6 am weather map. GFS is a bit stronger than the NAM. Image is from weatherbell.com
What are the rainfall probabilities. This is my first forecast and subject to adjustments.
What is the percent chance of X amount of rain falling? This appears to be a widespread 0.25″-0.50″ event. If the EC model guidance is correct then a bit more will fall over parts of the region. I will monitor trends.
Another storm system could bring precipitation chances around Wednesday night or Thursday. Perhaps a bit colder air in the region. If the system were to be a bit more organized then I would be thinking about snow or wintry mix. For now, a cautious approach is best. I will monitor trends and update accordingly over the coming days.
Here is how the GFS depicts the Thursday system. Low is well to our south. Some light wintry precipitation in our region. IF the guidance is correct. Long shot, at this point. Cold high pressure building in from the north. Image is from weatherbell.com
Let’s keep an eye on the week of March 9th. A heavy rain event will be possible. Perhaps enough rain to cause problems (flooding).
Heads up on that event. I will keep you updated.
Preparing for severe weather this spring!
This is a reminder that spring typically brings several rounds of severe weather to our region.
I suggest having multiple avenues for receiving severe weather information. Here are some suggestions
- NOAA Weather Radio. The Midland 300 is my favorite. You can program what products you would like to be alerted for. If you don’t want flash flood warnings then you can filter those out. If you only want tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings then you can program it for just that. Great weather radio. Amazon has them at decent prices. Yes, you will pay a little bit more for that radio, but you won’t be bothered with every single alarm. And, those alarms can become annoying after awhile. Especially true if you don’t need all of the warning products.
- WeatherTalk texting service. Through the texting I will let you know that severe weather is in the forecast. The texts I send out are supplemental texts (not warning texts). Confirmed damage text messages, a tornado is on the ground message, baseball size hail has been reported in Scott County, Missouri texts, an intense storm is entering your county. Those are some examples. Remember, the proceeds from WeatherTalk pay for this blog, the interactive city view radars, all of the graphics you see on Facebook and Twitter, the AWARE email (which is $100 a month to produce), the text messages, and my time.
- A severe weather warning AP. There are many to choose from. I have some suggestions here
- Television and a battery powered radio.
- Outdoor sirens should be the last on your list. Outdoor sirens are meant for people outside. If you can hear them then great. But, don’t use them as your primary source for warning.
As always, I encourage you to check forecasts frequently when severe weather is in the forecast. Forecasts evolve and change. Severe weather is similar to winter storms in the difficulty level of forecasting.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Monday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Tuesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be ONE. Monitor updates.
Wednesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Thursday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
No winter weather of any significance.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – Snow is unlikely to occur. Monitor updates.
Thursday – Snow is unlikely to occur. Monitor updates.
No major changes.
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Windy for boaters on Sunday.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain through Sunday afternoon.
A scattered shower is possible Sunday evening into early Monday morning. If rain does occur then it will be light. Rainfall totals under 0.20″.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
