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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
Rain chances will vary greatly from north to south over the coming days.
See the daily details further down in the blog. See the future-cast radars, as well.
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Saturday to Saturday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Saturday night into Sunday. Lightning is possible.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce 55 mph wind and dime size hail Saturday night and Sunday. There is a low-end risk of damaging wind.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Heavy rain is likely Saturday night into Sunday. Rain totals of 0.75″ to 1.75″ will occur. There will be bands of greater than two inches. Recent snow and rain have caused the ground to be saturated. Avoid flooded roadways. There will be sharp rises on streams and rivers.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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February 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of a few showers (mainly over the Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee)
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 60° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated far south
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few wet roadways over our southern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 5:48 PM
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Saturday night temperatures may rise as a warm front lifts through the area.
Double click on the animation to enlarge it.
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind. A few storms could be intense with gusty wind.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% north and 100% Bootheel IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 52° then rising SE MO 45° to 50° rising South IL 45° to 50° rising Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 54° rising West KY 50° to 55° rising NW TN 53° to 56° rising
Wind direction and speed: Southeast becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Avoid flooded roadways. Gusty wind near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check radars
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 7:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures may fall northwest to southeast late in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% north and 90% far south IL ~ 30% north and 70% far south KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west northwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B far south and monitor radars far north.
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 5:49 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers. Rain chances will be higher before midnight. A slight chance of thunderstorms in northwest Tennessee and near the Kentucky/Tennessee State line. Rain will diminish northwest to southeast as the night wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% far north and 60% far south IL ~ 30% far north and 50% far south KY ~ 80% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° SE MO 28° to 34° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: North at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered far north and numerous far south (see graphics further down in the blog)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:33 PM
Moonset: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 52° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 5:50 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:43 PM
Moonset: 8:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a few showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 5:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 35° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 9:55 PM
Moonset: 8:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 5:52 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:07 PM
Moonset: 9:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 60° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 5:53 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 36° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Maybe a few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 9:44 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a few showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 5:54 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A slight chance of a shower early in the night.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered early in the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 12:19 AM
Moonset: 10:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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March 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset: 5:55 PM.
Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:29 AM
Moonset: 11:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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March 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: A few clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 38° to 40° South IL 38° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:34 AM
Moonset: 12:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 3rd Severe storms are possible Sunday, February 28, 2021
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Avoid flooded roadways.
A few storms could produce strong and gusty winds tonight and Sunday. A low-end severe weather risk.
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Weather Discussion
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- Locally heavy rain tonight and Sunday.
- A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind. Low-end severe risk.
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Forecast Discussion
The main weather story continues to be rain chances.
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It won’t rain all of the time but intervals of rain and storms.
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The peak timing of widespread showers and thunderstorms will be tonight and Sunday.
I am expecting a widespread 0.75″ to 1.75″ of rain. There will be pockets of greater than two inches.
A flood watch covers most of the region. Some fields may flood. Streams and rivers will rise. Avoid flooded roadways.
The watch also includes the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
Some NWS graphics.
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Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
A bit more broad-brushed.
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A few of the storms could produce strong and gusty winds and small hail as well. There is a low-end severe weather risk. Again, that would be tonight and Sunday.
Watch how temperatures and dew points rise tonight. There will be quite a bit of moisture in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to tap into. Thus, the heavy rain concerns.
Temperatures will rise as the warm front surges northward.
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Dew points
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PWAT values will also be on the rise.
PWAT values
Those are large numbers for February. A good indicator that locally heavy rain will occur tonight and perhaps Sunday, as well.
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CAPE
CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Instability. We typically watch for surface based CAPE (although in the winter we can look at all levels).
Surface based CAPE tends to be related to severe thunderstorms.
There will not be much surface based CAPE tonight. There will be some mid-level CAPE.
On Sunday, there will be a bit more surface based CAPE. Thus, let’s keep an eye on the threat of a few intense thunderstorms over the next 24 to 36 hours.
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Surface based CAPE. Sunday 1 PM.
Sunday 2 PM
Sunday 3 PM. With time, it wanes.
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The Storm Prediction Center has included portions of the region in a level one out of five risk for severe thunderstorms. One is the lowest. See graphics further up in the blog.
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The WPC has placed portions of our region in a risk of enhanced rainfall. What does that mean? It simply means that locally heavy rain will be possible.
This first graphic covers Saturday night. The yellow zone has a higher risk of heavy rain vs the green zone. This may still need to be adjusted.
Either way, some locally heavy rain is likely in our region. Some roads may flood.
This next graphic covers Sunday. You can see, the heavier rain shifts southward with time.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
The system later today and tonight. Weak event.
Short-range. The GFS pops some light sprinkles along the incoming Wednesday cold front. Do not expect much if anything at all.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 26th through March 4th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 35 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 5th through March 11th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers March 12th through March 25th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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