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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Friday Night – A few clouds. Cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Winds: Light winds and variable direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Milder.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures 54-58 degree range. We could touch 60 over southeast Missouri.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None expected.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear sky conditions. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – High winds. Partly to mostly sunny. Perhaps increasing clouds in the afternoon. Mild. A late afternoon shower possible. Low chance.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures 64-68 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 15-30 mph. Gusts above 40 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none. Perhaps a stray shower towards evening. Low chance.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Gusty/high winds for boaters.
Sunday Night – A period of clouds. Cool. A chance for spotty showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-44 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 20 mph. Winds may shift to the west late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways.
Monday – Partly sunny and breezy. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures 58-64 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None expected.
Monday Night – Increasing clouds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely no precipitation. Will be monitoring a new system coming in from the west.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Quite a few clouds. An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures may vary across the region. This will depend on the track of the area of low pressure. Goes south and we will be colder. Well north and we will end up mild. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is possible.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Lightning possible.
Tuesday Night – A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Turning colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-42 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming northwest at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning is possible.
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds. Colder.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? None.
What impact is expected? None.
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Preparing for spring severe weather
2. Calm Saturday on tap for the region
3. Windy on Sunday, but very mild
4. Weak front Sunday night
5. Strong system on Tuesday
This is a reminder that spring typically brings several rounds of severe weather to our region.
I suggest having multiple avenues for receiving severe weather information. Here are some suggestions
- NOAA Weather Radio. The Midland 300 is my favorite. You can program what products you would like to be alerted for. If you don’t want flash flood warnings then you can filter those out. If you only want tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings then you can program it for just that. Great weather radio. Amazon has them at decent prices. Yes, you will pay a little bit more for that radio, but you won’t be bothered with every single alarm. And, those alarms can become annoying after awhile. Especially true if you don’t need all of the warning products.
- WeatherTalk texting service. Through the texting I will let you know that severe weather is in the forecast. The texts I send out are supplemental texts (not warning texts). Confirmed damage text messages, a tornado is on the ground message, baseball size hail has been reported in Scott County, Missouri texts, an intense storm is entering your county. Those are some examples. Remember, the proceeds from WeatherTalk pay for this blog, the interactive city view radars, all of the graphics you see on Facebook and Twitter, the AWARE email (which is $100 a month to produce), the text messages, and my time.
- A severe weather warning AP. There are many to choose from. I have some suggestions here
- Television and a battery powered radio.
- Outdoor sirens should be the last on your list. Outdoor sirens are meant for people outside. If you can hear them then great. But, don’t use them as your primary source for warning.
As always, I encourage you to check forecasts frequently when severe weather is in the forecast. Forecasts evolve and change. Severe weather is similar to winter storms in the difficulty level of forecasting.
Weekend forecast:
We have a decent weekend ahead of us.
Saturday will deliver widespread 50s and a few lower 60s to the region. Sunday will be warmer. But, Sunday will be windier. Winds on Sunday should gust in the 30-40 mph range. And, a few gusts may top 40 mph. If you are boating on Sunday then use care.
A weak front pushes through the region on Sunday night. A stray shower can’t be ruled out. Light.
A much stronger storm system approaches on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some data brings precipitation into the region as early as Monday night. I will need to fine tune the timing of the event.
An area of low pressure is forecast to move through central Missouri into central Illinois. This places us in the warm sector. Assuming that is the track of the low.
At this time, it appears that showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region on Tuesday. Locally heavy rain can’t be ruled out. Gusty winds.
If the track of the system were to shift southward then we would be talking about snow and ice. For now, I am leaning towards the warm solutions. But, as always, monitor updates. We are still several days away from the event.
We cool down behind the system on Wednesday. Below normal temperatures appear likely on Wednesday into Friday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Sunday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Monday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Tuesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be ONE. Monitor updates.
Wednesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
No winter weather of any significance.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – Snow is unlikely to occur. Monitor updates.
Wednesday – Snow is unlikely to occur. Monitor updates.
No major changes.
Windy for boaters on Sunday.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain through Sunday afternoon.
A scattered shower is possible Sunday evening into early Monday morning. If rain does occur then it will be light. Rainfall totals under 0.20″.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
