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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
Rain chances will vary greatly from north to south over the coming days.
See the daily details further down in the blog. See the future-cast radars, as well.
I posted some graphics in the main portion of the weather discussion blog. They will show you a graphical view of the probability chances of rain.
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Sunday. I can’t rule out lightning.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain in the Tennessee Valley over the coming seven days. This will cause some of our rivers to rise, as well. Remember, that water flows northward (some of it). Monitor updates locally, as well. The placement of a frontal boundary will determine rain totals.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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February 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Isolated showers. Mild. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 62° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Isolated showers. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:54 PM
Moonset: 5:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler. A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 52° South IL 50° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 5:46 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A few showers will be possible over our southern counties. Mainly the Bootheel eastward along the KY/TN State line.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 30° to 32° South IL 30° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None north. Scattered far south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways far south. See graphics and future-cast radars.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:01 PM
Moonset: 5:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of mainly rain showers across the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% north and 30% Bootheel IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 48° SE MO 45° to 48° South IL 45° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 45° to 48° NW TN 45° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 5:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° SE MO 35° to 40° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 36°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
Moonrise: 5:11 PM
Moonset: 6:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. A chance of a few showers (mainly over the Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee)
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated far south
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. A few wet roadways over our southern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 5:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% north and 60% Bootheel IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 7:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. More south vs north.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% north and 60% far south IL ~ 30% north and 50% far south KY ~ 60% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 5:49 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% far north and 60% far south IL ~ 30% far north and 50% far south KY ~ 60% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° SE MO 34° to 40° South IL 32° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered far north and numerous far south (see graphics further down in the blog)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:33 PM
Moonset: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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March 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 5:50 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 32° to 38° South IL 32° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 35° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:43 PM
Moonset: 8:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These will be updated between 10 AM and 11 AM
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through March 3rd. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Monitor river levels over the coming weeks.
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Weather Discussion
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- Weak cold front Wednesday/Wednesday night will knock a few degrees off the thermometer.
- Watching the weekend into next week for a more active weather pattern.
- Rain chances will be higher from the Bootheel and then east along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.
- No measurable snow in our forecast.
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Find a trusted meteorologist. Whether that would be me or one of the local television meteorologists.
I always tell people to choose their sources for weather wisely. Find someone local. Find someone local that is a meteorologists. Find someone you can trust.
There are local websites that post extreme model runs showing you feet of snow a week away. Rarely, do these models verify.
We have a hard enough time forecasting snow and ice 24-hours in advance let alone seven, eight, nine, or ten days in advance.
It is irresponsible to constantly post the most extreme weather graphics. I can always find models that show something crazy. Whether it be a blizzard on day ten or a tornado outbreak.
It is worse when these people post these images without context.
Almost every local meteorologist had to respond to some postings over the past few days.
I am not talking about the ones that simply say winter is not over. We know this. We can still have snow in March. I am talking about the ones that post images and make them look like forecasts.
Your trusted meteorologists will always give you plenty of time to prepare for inclement weather. That is our job. Our job is not to scare you a weeks in advance of something that most likely won’t come true.
Making matters worse, these sites occasionally get it right. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut every so often. As the saying goes. If you post long-range maps long enough, one or two will eventually verify.
Just find someone you can truly trust when it comes to weather forecasting.
Sorry, rant over.
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Forecast Discussion
We have a semi-active weather pattern developing.
There will be multiple chances of precipitation, for at least portions of the region, over the coming seven days.
The difficulties in the forecast will be the placement of the heavier rain and how far north to push the rain.
Model data, over the past 24-hours, has been trending further south with the heavier rain totals. Mostly the Tennessee Valley vs the Ohio Valley.
This is the direction I have been leaning. We will see how it plays out.
Notice that each time-period, in the daily forecast at the top of the blog, reflects different rain chances across the area. Please see the daily details (not the top graphic). The daily details break up the region into small quadrants.
There continue to be adjustments to those percentage numbers. I am sure there will be some more.
If some of these systems drift too much further south, then we may remove rain chances from at least a portion of the area.
There are a couple of time periods where rain appears more likely.
See the future-cast radars further down in this blog update. That will give you an idea on each system.
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Today and Tonight
A weak fast moving cold front will sweep across the region today. It will be mild ahead of the front and cooler behind it. Nothing too extreme. Thankfully.
There will be a few rain showers along the cold front. Any rain totals would be light. Less than 0.10″. Most areas will simply remain dry.
Cooler tonight. Again, nothing extreme.
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Thursday into the weekend.
Dry Thursday (during the day). No weather concerns.
There will be a chance of a few rain or rain/snow showers Thursday night and Friday.
This will mostly be across the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee.
A few of those rain showers may push into western Kentucky. For now, northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois should remain dry Thursday into Friday night.
I will keep a close eye on the system. Just in case it pushes a tad further north.
That means that rain chances will look like this.
Let me show you a series of graphics that show you the probability of rain during each 12-hour time period.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Thursday night
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Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
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Saturday night
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Sunday
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Sunday night
Monday
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You cam tale the general idea from those graphics. More rain south. Less rain north.
At this time, severe weather appears a no-go through next Tuesday. I can’t 100% rule out lightning Sunday.
Let me show you some ensemble graphics.
What are ensembles?
First, the GFS ensembles.
A few rain events will be possible. Especially, over our southern counties.
Questions remain on how far north to take the precipitation. Notice the higher totals are over the Tennessee Valley.
These maps represent the Mean of the ensembles.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
GFS model. Rain totals through Tuesday morning. These maps represent the Mean of the ensembles.
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Now the GFS ensembles.
Notice the EC and GFS agree on the placement of the heavier rain totals.
EC model through Sunday morning. Sharp cut-of in rain totals north to south. These maps represent the Mean of the ensembles.
EC model through Tuesday morning. Rain totals. These maps represent the Mean of the ensembles.
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Here is a new model. The NWS Blend of Models. This is just what it sounds like. It blends a bunch of models together.
Again, notice the placement of heavier rain totals south vs north.
There was a trend to lower totals over the past 12 to 24 hours (locally). Let’s see if that trend continues.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.
There was a slight shift southward with the heavier rain. That is good news locally.
All of the guidance has shifted southward.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precip
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
No precip
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
The system later today and tonight. Weak event.
Short-range. The GFS pops some light sprinkles along the incoming Wednesday cold front. Do not expect much if anything at all.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 24th through March 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 3rd through March 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers March 9th through March 22nd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Apple users click here
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You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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