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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Today and this evening. Another chance late Monday night into Wednesday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. A few strong storms are possible today with gusty wind and hail. Another system late Monday night into Wednesday night. There are timing differences in the data as to when the peak time frame will be. I am watching Tuesday and Wednesday closely for the threat of severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined our region for severe storms.
Tuesday
Wednesday’s severe weather outlook. The SPC has already outlined our area. This is a concern.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Thursday into Thursday night: 3. Very low risk.
Friday into Friday night: 5. Moderate risk.
Saturday: 5. Moderate risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Widespread showers and some thunderstorms will bring a widespread soaking rain to the region today. Winds become northwesterly behind a frontal passage this afternoon. Great dispersion is likely on Friday with deep mixing. RH values may approach 25% in the Ozark Foothills of Missouri, while values should remain above 40% east of the Mississippi River. Winds will switch back around to southerly beginning on Sunday. They are expected to be quite strong next week, with the potential for 40 mph surface gusts Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong thunderstorms are possible mid next week as well.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing. Breezy. It won’t rain all day, but once showers and storms move in or develop, they will continue into the evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 30 mph. Gusty. Wind becoming west northwest behind the cold front.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is likely.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 5:42 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the evening. The rain may have ended over a good chunk of the region. Ending west to east.
Moonrise: 4:02 PM
Moonset: 5:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: A few clouds. A slight chance of light showers or snow showers over mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 8 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:03 PM
Moonset: 6:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered rain or snow showers over mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
A range of temperatures. Cooler where there might be clouds over our northeast counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 5:44 PM .
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Saturday Night Forecast: A few passing clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:02 PM
Moonset: 6:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM .
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:00 PM
Moonset: 7:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Mild today with showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be strong.
- Slightly cooler Friday and Saturday and then we warm back up.
- Watching Monday night into Tuesday night for thunderstorms. Some could be intense. Stay tuned.
- Colder behind the front next Tuesday night/Wednesday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Let’s start thinking about severe weather as we move into the coming weeks.
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Forecast Discussion
Let’s start to review our severe weather safety plans with the family and kids. Where to shelter. When to shelter. Know the difference between a watch and a warning. A warning is more serious.
Do your kids know what county they live in? What part of the county? Can they find themselves on a radar map?
A cold front will push into the region today with showers and thunderstorms developing overhead.
There may not be much on radar this morning, but that will change as we move into the late morning and afternoon hours.
That front will move eastward Thursday night.
Rainfall totals will range from 0.20″ to 0.55″.
Let’s look at rain probabilities.
Today
Tonight
Boy oh boy. Has February been warm.
Check out yesterday’s temperatures! This graphic shows you the 1 PM temperatures (Wednesday). WELL above seasonal levels. Normal highs are in the lower 50s!
January was harsh. Cold.
Compare that to February. These are the month to date temperature anomalies. How many degrees above average. These are big numbers! Well well above seasonl levels. What a crazy month it has been.
A weak system will brush southern Illinois and western Kentucky Friday night and Saturday morning.
This will deliver cooler temperatures and scattered rain or snow showers. Some clouds, as well.
I kept rain and snow chances around 20%. We currently do not expect accumulating snow or icy roads, but monitor updates. This is a fast moving light system. It is possible the bulk of the precipitation stays just to our northeast.
Temperatures Saturday will be mostly average to below average. Sunday will pop back well above average in the temperature department.
Mild next week with several systems to closely monitor. There could be several days of severe weather next week in the central and eastern USA. We need to watch it closely.
Check out these temperatures. This is the GFS model. Wednesday mid-day. Wow, some 80s in Missouri? Seventies are a lock. Let’s see if someone hits 80 degrees. This is truly incredible weather.
There are timing differences as to when peak severe weather risks will arrive.
I am watching Monday night into Wednesday night. The latest data shows the highest chance of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon.
As mentioned at the top of the page, some of the thunderstorms could be severe. A bit early for specifics, but there are concerns. Please monitor updates moving forward.
I will start sending out alerts and forecast updates via the app concerning the event.
Let me show you some graphics.
Check out the sharp cold front. This is the temperature map for Wednesday. Sharp dry-line.
Temperatures
Dew points (moisture). When you see a sharp dryline, like on this graphic, you have to be concerned about severe weather.
The dew points in the 60s are ahead of the front. They then crater right behind the front. This is a signal for severe thunderstorms.
The CIPS analogs show a signal for severe weather. Analogs are where the models look at past events and then forecast where they think severe weather might occur with the current storm system.
Monitor updates concerning next weeks weather.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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