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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Not at this time. I will keep an eye on Sunday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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February 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Morning clouds departing off to the east. Becoming sunny west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 5:43 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 35° SE MO 32° to 34° South IL 32° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 33° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:55 PM
Moonset: 3:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Patchy AM fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest becoming south southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 5:44 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° SE MO 36° to 38° South IL 36° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:51 PM
Moonset: 4:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Milder.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers before 1 AM before temperatures fall below freezing.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 32° to 34° NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: Noe to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 2:54 PM
Moonset: 5:03 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: North at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated before 8 am
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 5:46 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 30° SE MO 23° to 26° South IL 23° to 26° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° West KY 28° to 30° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:01 PM
Moonset: 5:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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February 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Confidence in rain chances Saturday are low. I need to monitor a possible cold front during that time-frame. For now, I introduced low-end rain chances.
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 5:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
Moonrise: 5:11 PM
Moonset: 6:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Confidence in rain chances Saturday are low. I need to monitor a possible cold front during that time-frame. For now, I introduced low-end rain chances.
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Perhaps some isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 5:48 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 6:21 PM
Moonset: 7:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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February 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 5:45 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:33 PM
Moonset: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through February 28th. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Monitor for the chance of fog over the coming days. Warmer air moving over cold ground conditions can produce dense fog.
Snow will melt. Rivers and streams may rise.
In the longer range, we will need to monitor any heavy rain chances. We don’t want river flooding.
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Weather Discussion
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- A calmer weather pattern than the last three weeks.
- Warming trend will help melt the snow and ice.
- Patchy dense fog.
- Watching the weekend into next week for a more active weather pattern.
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It will be dry today through Wednesday afternoon. No major weather concerns. Perhaps some fog.
Another fast moving cold front will push across the region Wednesday night. A few showers may accompany this front. Again, rain will be light, if anything at all. Most models are dry. I stuck in a 20% chance of a shower. That might be generous.
Slightly cooler Thursday and Friday behind that front.
I am watching the weekend into early next week for additional rain chances. Sunday, as well.
Models are trending upward with rain chances Friday and Friday night. Something to watch. Some models begin this as snow changing to rain. For now, I have rain in the forecast. Monitor.
The models are leaning more towards Saturday night and Sunday vs Saturday. There have been swings in the models. Thus, confidence is lower than normal. We still have several days to monitor that frontal boundary and area of low pressure.
The EC model ensembles are quite wet in the short to long range. Tennessee Valley flooding might be a concern. Something to watch.
EC model opinion’s on rain totals through March 8th.
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Check out these crazy month to date temperature anomaly maps. These are extreme numbers. The fourth coldest start to February since the 1950s. Do you think we were due something like this? Definitely.
High temperature. Click on the images to enlarge them.
Low temperature
Combined anomaly.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precip
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
No precip
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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precip
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No precip
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
The system later today and tonight. Weak event.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
System one. Today/tonight.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers February 22nd through February 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers March 1st through March 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers March 5th through March 18th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook
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February Precipitation Outlook
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Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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