Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

 

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

You will also find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

My regular text forecast can be found below these.

A quick look at the seven-day forecast.  My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

 

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** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

Missouri

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

Illinois

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

Kentucky

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

** KEEP IN MIND, today’s chance rain forecast was for this morning.  Rain is or has ended west to east **

Tennessee

 

 

Today: No.  Avoid flooded roadways.  Since the rain has ended, for the most part, I will take this back down to a no vs yes.  There are still roads flooded.  Keep that in mind.

Tomorrow:  No.   Saturday will be a weather alert day.

* What is a weather alert day?  It is a day when flooding, severe weather, or wintry precipitation may impact your day.

 

1.  Rain ending today.
2.  Rain returns as early as Thursday night and will continue into Saturday night.
3.  Heavy rain likely Saturday.
4.  Storms could be intense Saturday.  Monitor updates.
5.  River flooding will continue.

 

Confidence rating explained.

• High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
• Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
• Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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The short-range forecast.  Days one through three.   

Today through Friday night.

1.  Is snow or ice in the forecast today through Friday night?  No.
2.  Is lightning in the forecast today through Friday night?  Yes.  Lightning is possible on day three (Friday night).  That will continue into Saturday evening (see long range forecast).
3.  Is severe weather in the forecast today through Friday night?   No.  Not today, tomorrow, or Friday.
   *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is Flash flooding in the forecast today through Friday night?  Flooding, yes.  Flash flooding, no.  The rain has ended today.  There could still be flooded roadways, keep that in mind.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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February 20, 2019

Wednesday’s Forecast:  Rain ending today from west to east.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°     SE MO  48° to 52°     South IL  46° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 52°    West KY  54° to 58°     NW TN  56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast to southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  46° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   Rain will be ending west to east during the morning.  MO Bootheel  20%     MO  20%     IL   30%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  40%     Western KY  40%    NW TN  40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor flooding.  Some roads may flood.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B during the morning hours
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:38 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  33° to 36°     SE MO  28° to 34°     South IL  28° to 34°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°    West KY  34° to 38°     NW TN  34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest to west/northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      Southeast MO   0%      Southern IL   0%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  10%     Western KY  10%      NW TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Most areas will be dry by evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some roads may still be flooded.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:40 PM
Moonrise:   7:08 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:   7:33 AM

 

February 21, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A light shower possible late in the day.  Mostly dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°     SE MO  48° to 52°     South IL  44° to 50°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 52°    West KY  48° to 52°     NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  44° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  20%     MO  20%     IL   20%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  30%    NW TN  40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:37 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy.  Scattered showers.   Greatest coverage will be over the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 40°     SE MO  33° to 36°     South IL  33° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  34° to 36°    West KY  35° to 40°     NW TN  40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40%      Southeast MO   40%      Southern IL   30%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  40%      NW TN   50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered north and perhaps numerous south
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Have a plan B in our southern counties.
Sunset:   5:41 PM
Moonrise:   8:18 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:   8:10 AM

 

February 23, 2019
Friday’s Forecast:  Cloudy with scattered showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 52°     SE MO  48° to 52°     South IL  48° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 50°    West KY  50° to 52°     NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  44° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  60%     Southeast MO  60%     Southern IL   60%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60%     Western KY  60%     NW TN  70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:36 AM

 

Friday night Forecast: Cloudy.  Rain.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Temperatures may rise late at night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  48° to 50°     SE MO  42° to 44°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  44° to 48°    West KY  46° to 52°     NW TN  48° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  70%      Southeast MO   60%      Southern IL   60%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  70%      NW TN   80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor the flooding situation.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:42 PM
Moonrise:   9:29 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:   8:45 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

Monitor the Saturday forecast.  Heavy rain and storms are likely.

The long-range forecast.  Days four through seven.  

Saturday through Tuesday.

• Is snow or ice in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday?  Possible.  A low-end risk.  There is a chance of rain/snow mix with no accumulation Thursday night.
• Is lightning in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday?  Yes.  Lightning is possible Friday night and likely Saturday.
• Is severe weather in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday?  Possible.  Severe weather is possible on Saturday.  Monitor updates.
  *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
• Is flash flooding in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday?  Yes.  Flash flooding is possible on Saturday.

 

Saturday:  Rain and thunderstorms.  Heavy rain.  A few storms could be strong.  Monitor the risk of severe weather.  Mild.  Highs in the middle 50’s to middle 60’s  Windy.  Lows in the 40’s.

Sunday:  Partly cloudy.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows Sunday night in the 30’s.

Monday:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows Monday night in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a chance of more showers.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows Tuesday night in the 40’s.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today and tomorrow:  No severe weather concerns.

Thursday through Sunday:  Lightning is possible Friday night and Saturday.  Severe weather is possible Saturday.

 

 

Thursday into Sunday:  Accumulating snow is unlikely. 

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Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook

The highest probability on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

Keep in mind, this includes sleet and freezing rain.

 

 

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Ended rain earlier today.

I increased rain chances Thursday night and Friday.

I increased wording on the risk of heavy rain and perhaps severe weather Saturday.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Yes.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Yes.  Monitor the risk of heavy rain and severe weather on Saturday.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

 

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Forecast discussion.

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First, check your www.weathertalk.com settings.

Severe weather and heavy rain possible Saturday.

Make sure you have turned on WeatherOne in your www.weathertalk.com accounts.

Samples from previous events.

We have been averaging 5 to 10 minutes ahead of other sources.

Click these images to enlarge them.

 

 

 

 

Now, back to the current weather.

Rain will end west to east today.

There will still be some roads underwater today.  Try to find alternative routes.

Dry conditions are expected tonight into Thursday afternoon.  That dry weather will not last.  You probably already knew that.

Rain will return as early as Thursday night and more likely Friday, Friday night, and Saturday.

Rain chances increase Friday into Friday night.

 

Another heavy rain event is already on the way

Showers are possible Thursday night into Friday.  Rain totals of 0.10″ to 0.30″ will be possible.

Heavy rain is likely to impact the region by Friday night and Saturday.  Another flood or flash flood watch may need to be issued.  Rain totals of one to three inches will likely occur Friday night into Saturday evening.  Obviously, we do not need this rain.

Thunderstorms could enhance rain totals and would also make flash flooding more likely.

In addition to the heavy rain concerns, I will be monitoring the risk of intense thunderstorms on Saturday.

Check out this temperature chart.  This map is the forecast for 6 PM on Saturday.

That means that this thunderstorm event may be during the afternoon and evening (in addition to any other rain/storms that occur Friday night and Saturday morning).

That would be the peak time of the day for instability.

These are not normal temperatures for the Month of February.  Of course, normals are made up of extremes.

 

 

Here is the dew point map.

Dew point is a measure of moisture.  We look for 58 degrees and above during the winter months when considering severe weather forecasting.

The forecast is for dew points to be in the 60’s.  Plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

 

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There are numerous parameters coming together for the risk of severe weather on Saturday.  It is still too early to get caught up in the finer details.  It is also a bit premature to forecast severe weather.

For now, I am monitoring the situation.  If you have plans on Saturday then you should monitor updates.

Dry weather returns by Sunday.

 

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Model Future-cast Radars

This is the GFS model guidance.

Check out this next system.

It will produce everything from blizzard conditions to tornadoes across the central United States.

That is a deep low on the GFS model guidance.  Blizzard conditions are likely across parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  Perhaps even northwest Illinois.

You can see the tight black lines.  Those are isobars.  Isobars are equal lines of barometric pressure (like the barometer you may have on your home wall).

When these lines are tightly packed together it means strong winds are likely to occur.

We call this the pressure gradient.  From point A to B there is a large pressure difference.

.

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Here is the system that arrives Friday into Saturday.  Notice those isobars over Iowa, Minnesota, and into Wisconsin.  Tight!

Click to enlarge.

Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavy snow.  Pink would be a wintry mix.  Green is rain.  Dark green, yellow, and orange would be rain to heavy rain.

 

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Strong and gusty winds will accompany the weekend storm.

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Current conditions.

 

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

 

 

Satellite

Today’s image is the IR satellite.

You can see the moisture moving our way from the southwest.  This extends well back into the Pacific Ocean.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

 

The Ohio Valley video

 

 

Long-range video.