Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Afternoon update.

 

Live radar link 

 

A flash flood watch covers the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

Bright green is the flash flood watch.

Dark green is a flood watch.

 

 

A winter weather advisory for my far northwestern counties, as well.

 

 

Here is the NAM-3K model future-cast radar.

Timestamp upper left.

 

Click to enlarge.

 

4 PM Radar

Live radar link 

 

Severe weather and heavy rain possible Saturday.

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Samples from previous events.

We have been averaging 5 to 10 minutes ahead of other sources.

Click these images to enlarge them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

Click the image for an example of how to show winter precipitation type

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I am posting these by request.

My regular text forecast can be found below these.

A quick look at the seven-day forecast.  My text forecast below these graphics may vary a bit.

 

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Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

 

 

Today:  Yes.    Wet snow or a wintry mix is likely to develop late this afternoon.  The greatest chance of impacts will be from Bollinger County, Missouri into Cape Girardeau, County Missouri and then into Jackson, Williamson, Franklin, Hamilton, and White counties in southern Illinois.  From there north and northwest there could be some slushy wet snow.  Temperatures should be mostly above freezing.  That raises questions as far as impact.  Most likely there will be some snowflakes in the air and perhaps sticking to grassy and elevated surfaces.

Remember, bridges freeze first.

Officially, there is a winter weather advisory for St. Genevieve County, Missouri & Randolph County, Illinois.  Temperatures there will be a bit colder.  Thus, the impacts could include icy roads conditions.  Monitor updates.

In addition to the above, locally heavy rain across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee could cause flooding.  The main concern will be Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  Some flooding will be possible.

Tomorrow:  Yes.  A flash flood watch will be in effect from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee.  Heavy rain is the main concern.  Avoid flooded roadways.

* What is a weather alert day?  It is a day when flooding, severe weather, or wintry precipitation may impact your day.

 

1.  Locally heavy rain.  Wet snow chances later this afternoon and evening.
2.  An active weather pattern over the coming weeks.
3.  Another heavy rain event is going to occur Saturday.   Monitoring thunderstorm chances, as well.
4.  River flooding will continue.

 

Confidence rating explained.

• High confidence is 70% to 100%.  This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
• Medium confidence is 40% through 60%.  This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
• Low confidence is 0% to 30%.  This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

 

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The short-range forecast.  Days one through three.

Is snow or ice in the forecast?  Yes.   Slushy wet snow is anticipated to develop this afternoon and evening.

The best chance of some of the snow accumulating will be from Bollinger County, Missouri east and northeast into the Carbondale/Marion, Illinois area and the northeast from there towards Carmi, Illinois.  Some wet/slushy accumulation is possible on grassy areas and elevated surfaces.  At this time it appears to be a dusting to up to two inches.  Perhaps a bit more as you move towards St. Genevieve County, Missouri towards Jefferson County, Illinois.

Temperatures will remain mostly at or above freezing.  That will limit impacts.

Elsewhere, snow accumulation chances dwindle the further south you travel.  Monitor updates, as always.

 

Is lightning in the forecast?  Possible.  There is a chance of lightning tonight and Wednesday.  Lightning is possible Saturday into Sunday, as well.

 

Is severe weather in the forecast?  No.  Not today, tomorrow, or Thursday.
*  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

 

Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Yes.  Flooding is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The ground is saturated.  One to two+ inches of rain will occur over portions of far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

 

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

 

February 19, 2019

Tuesday’s Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Rain and snow developing.  The best chance of precipitation will arrive after 12 PM.  It will spread south to north.

The very beginning of the event would produce a wintry mix or wet snow changing to rain.

The best chance of some of the snow accumulating will be from Bollinger County, Missouri east and northeast into the Carbondale/Marion, Illinois area and the northeast from there towards Carmi, Illinois.  At this time it appears to be a dusting to up to two inches (far north/northwest).  With temperatures at or above freezing the snow may only stick to grassy and elevated surfaces.

The best chance of some accumulation would be from St. Genevieve County, Missouri northwest towards Jefferson County, Illinois.

Temperatures will fall as the rain & snow develops.  We call this wet bulbing.  Precipitation helps to drag down colder air.  The evaporation process helps cool the atmosphere.  Monitor updates.  Sometimes these wet snow events can surprise forecasters with higher snow totals.

Eventually, we will see rising temperatures overnight.

My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  40° to 44°     SE MO  34° to 40°     South IL  34° to 40°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 40°    West KY  38° to 42°     NW TN  40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph during the morning increasing to 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  28° to 38°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   The chances of precipitation are centered on the afternoon hours.  MO Bootheel  100%     Southeast MO  70%     Southern IL   70%     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70%     Western KY  80%     NW TN  100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None during the morning.  Becoming numerous during the afternoon and evening hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Wet/slushy snow may accumulate on grassy areas and elevated surfaces.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B during the afternoon and evening hours.
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:39 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast:  Chilly.  A flash flood watch covers the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  Snow continuing over our far northern counties.  Any snow should change to rain as the night wears on.  Elsewhere, a widespread rain event.  Thunderstorms likely with loud thunder because of the temperature inverstion aloft.  Rain will be moderate to heavy at times.  The heaviest rain will be across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennesse.  Temperatures steady or slowly rising.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  34° to 38°     SE MO  32° to 36°     South IL  32° to 36°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°    West KY  34° to 38°     NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  100%      Southeast MO   100%      Southern IL   100%      Western KY  100%       NW TN   100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Some slushy snow accumulation across our northern and northwestern counties.  Many areas may only see impacts on grassy areas and elevated surfaces.  Wet roadways.  Flooding is possible in areas that receive the heaviest rain totals.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:39 PM
Moonrise:   5:54 PM
The phase of the moon:   Full
Moonset:   6:51 AM

 

February 20, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:  Rain ending during the morning west to east.  A few showers remaining after 12 PM over portions of western Kentucyk (Pennyrile area).  A flash flood watch covers the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.  The greatest concerns will be during the morning hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°     SE MO  48° to 52°     South IL  46° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 52°    West KY  54° to 58°     NW TN  56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast to southwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  46° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   Rain will be ending west to east during the morning.  MO Bootheel  60%     MO  60%     IL   70%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  70%     Western KY  70%    NW TN  70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor flooding.  Some roads may flood.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   2 Low
Sunrise:   6:38 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  33° to 36°     SE MO  28° to 34°     South IL  30° to 34°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  33° to 36°    West KY  34° to 38°     NW TN  34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest to west at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  10%      Southeast MO   10%      Southern IL   10%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  20%      NW TN   20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Most areas will be dry by evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Some roads may still be flooded.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:40 PM
Moonrise:   7:08 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:   7:33 AM

 

February 21, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 52°     SE MO  48° to 52°     South IL  46° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  46° to 50°    West KY  48° to 52°     NW TN  48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  44° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     Southern IL   0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0%     Western KY  0%     NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3 Medium
Sunrise:   6:37 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  An isolated light rain shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  33° to 36°     SE MO  30° to 34°     South IL  30° to 35°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  28° to 32°    West KY  34° to 38°     NW TN  36° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  30%      Southeast MO   20%      Southern IL   20%      Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  20%     Western KY  30%      NW TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:41 PM
Moonrise:   8:19 PM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Gibbous
Moonset:   8:10 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

The long-range forecast.  Days four through seven.  Friday through Sunday.

• Is snow or ice in the forecast?  Not at this time.
• Is lightning in the forecast?  I am monitoring Saturday.
• Is severe weather in the forecast?  I am monitoring Saturday.  I can’t rule out strong thunderstorms.  Monitor updates.
  *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
• Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Monitor Saturday and Sunday as yet another system could deliver rain to the region.

 

Friday:  Becoming cloudy.  Increasing chances of rain during the afternoon into Friday night.  Highs in the 40’s.  Lows in the 40’s.

Saturday:  Rain and thunderstorms.  Heavy rain.  A few storms could be strong.  Mild.  Highs in the middle 50’s to middle 60’s  Windy.  Lows in the 40’s.

Sunday:  Cloudy.  Highs in the 50’s.  Lows in the 30’s.

Monday:  Partly cloudy.  Highs in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today and tomorrow:  No severe weather concerns.  Lightning will be possible tonight and early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Sunday:  I am closely monitoring Saturday.  Thunderstorms are likely.

 

 

Wednesday through Tuesday:  Snow is not anticipated.  

.

Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook

The highest probability on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

Keep in mind, this includes sleet and freezing rain.

 

 

Here is the county breakdown of the snow potential.

For now, if your county is not included then that means the chances of more than an 1/2″ of snow are low.  I will monitor trends and update accordingly.

Occasionally, these wet snow events can surprise forecasters.

 

 

 

 

 

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major changes.  I slightly adjusted the snow probability numbers.

 

Does the forecast require action?

Monitor road conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Some wet snow will occur on the leading edge of this system.  The best chance of accumulating snow will be across my northern forecast counties.  Temperatures may remain above freezing across most of the area.  The best chance of accumulating snow may be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Locally heavy rain will occur Tuesday night.  The ground is soaked.  There are flooding concerns.  A flash flood watch covers the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee.  The heaviest rain axis will extend from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.

Widespread river flooding continues across the region.

As always, avoid flooded roadways.

 

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Forecast discussion.

Yet another widespread rain event is about to impact our region.  This is on top of the heavy rain over the past two months.  River flooding will continue to worsen.

The heaviest rain will develop tonight into early Wednesday morning.  A widespread 1″ to 2″ event will occur.  There will be higher totals in the flash flood watch.  Needless to say, this is an unwelcome rain event.

The heaviest rain bands will produce 2″ to 3″ of rain.

As always, avoid flooded roadways.

The WPC has placed our region in a marginal (green), slight (yellow), and moderate (red) risk of excessive rainfall.  What does that mean?  It simply means that some areas may experience flooding.  The greatest concern will be Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  The greatest risk is in the red zone.

 

 

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Model Future-cast Radars

Future-cast radar shows you what radar might look like over the X number of hours.  Green, yellow, and orange represent rain.  Blue is snow.  Red/pink is a wintry mix.

 

The high-resolution NAM-3K model guidance future-cast radar.  You can see the arrival of the precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The precipitation may begin as a rain/snow mix.  Some areas will change to wet snow.  I will be monitoring temperatures today.

As mentioned above, some accumulating wet/slushy snow is possible across at least parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Whether that occurs elsewhere is questionable.  We should transition to rain rather quickly across most of the area.

Timestamp upper left.

 

The NAM-3K model rainfall forecast.

You can see the path of that heavier band of rain across our southern and southeastern counties.

 

For good measure, here is the Hrrr model, as well.  Future-cast radar.  Timestamp upper left.

 

River flooding will be aggravated by this rain event.  If nothing else, it means the rivers are going to stay high for a longer period of time.  River crest forecasts were increased yesterday.

The rain will come to an end on Wednesday morning and afternoon.  It will end west to east.  The NAM model guidance ends the precipitation earlier than the GFS guidance.

Yet another system arrives Friday into Saturday.  This system will produce some thunderstorms on Saturday.  Locally heavy rain will also occur.

I will be monitoring the risk of severe weather, as well.  For now, it is simply a monitor situation.  We have a few days to monitor the trends in computer model guidance.

Notice there is yet another system after this coming weekend’s event.  This is an active weather pattern.  Understatement.

 

Here is the GFS model future-cast radar.  This captures the late week system and the one after.

Date and timestamp upper left.

 

Current conditions.

 

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

 

 

 

 

Satellite

Today’s image is the IR satellite.

You can see the moisture moving our way from the southwest.  This extends well back into the Pacific Ocean.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

 

The Ohio Valley video

 

 

Long-range video.