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February 18, 2018
Sunday afternoon Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Any remaining fog will mix out. A 20% of a shower across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois after 4 pm. Mild temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 58 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (after 4 PM)
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. Rising temperatures overnight. Scattered evening showers. Rain likely as the night wears on. Greatest chances over southeast Missouri vs the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. A thunderstorm possible. Windy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor radars.
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February 19, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Windy. A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered rain showers. A thunderstorm possible. Warm. Best rain chances over southeast Missouri and then lesser chances the further east you drive.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 15 to 35 mph. Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over most of the area. Greatest coverage over southeast Missouri.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest winds at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. I will monitor thunderstorm chances.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor radars.
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February 20, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Rain chances increasing west to east. A thunderstorm possible. Warm. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South winds at 12 to 24 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Rain likely. Heavy rain possible. A thunderstorm possible. Turning colder northwest to southeast.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 44 IL ~ 34 to 42 KY ~ 42 to 54 (coldest extreme west vs east)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Locally heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor updates.
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February 21, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Turning colder. High temperatures early in the day and then falling. Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 50 KY ~ 50 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: 35 to 45
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. A wintry mix possible over portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates.
Winds: North and northeast at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor wintry mix potential.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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February 22, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 46 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers developing.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but perhaps increasing as the night wears on
Wind chill values: 30’s
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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February 23, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: East at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: East and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates
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Sunday through Wednesday: Winter weather is not anticipated. I am monitoring Wednesday night for a wintry mix.
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night through Thursday: Monitor updates. On and off thunderstorms chances are possible. At this time, the severe weather risk appears low. Lightning will be the main concern. Heavy rain will be a concern. Between now and Saturday, rainfall totals of one to four inches will be possible. Locally higher totals possible. Monitor updates.
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The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
A quick weekend update!
The big weather topic over the coming days will be the potential of heavy rain.
Moisture will be pulled into our region from the Pacific, Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
Let me show you the PWAT loop. What are PWAT’s?
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Click to enlarge
Those green, blue, and purple colors represent a lot of moisture in the atmosphere. Notice how they come in waves. Notice how these high PWAT values are being pulled in from multiple bodies of water (as mentioned above).
These sustained high numbers mean that heavy rain is a good bet over the coming week.
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These PWAT values will fuel the potential of heavy rain. We will have on and off rain chances into next weekend. A widespread two to four inches of rain is anticipated over the next seven days. Locally higher numbers are likely. I would not be surprised if some locations pick up five or more inches of rain.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast through day seven. Rivers will rise.
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A slight to moderate risk of flash flooding has been issued by the WPC. This covers Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning.
Additional portions of the region may need to be added. Monitor updates.
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The exact placement of the heaviest rain totals will need to be fine-tuned. It is likely that the entire region will experience a considerable amount of rain from this pattern.
Thunderstorms will be possible, as well. Thunderstorms can always produce higher rain totals. At this time, the severe weather threat appears low.
Milder temperatures will accompany the higher moisture levels, as well.
Temperatures tonight should actually rise!
Timestamp upper left. This is the temperature animations from this evening into Monday afternoon.
Click to enlarge.
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Gusty winds will be with us tonight into the middle of the week. If we have more sunshine than anticipated then winds could gust at or above 40 mph on Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, widespread 20 to 35 mph wind gusts are anticipated over the coming days.
Here is the GFS future-cast radar. Now, this won’t be exact, of course. This is just the GFS model’s opinion on what radar might look like over the coming days.
Notice wave after wave of increased rain chances.
Notice how, early on at least, the higher rain chances cover southeast Missouri and lesser chances as you move east. Notice the heavier bands embedded in the general rain shield.
The probability of rain, at any given point, will need to be monitored for each six to twelve hour period of time. It will vary.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Blue is snow. Pink is sleet or freezing rain mix.
Timestamp upper left. Click image to enlarge.
This graphic runs from now through next Saturday evening.
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We will need to monitor river stages. Rivers are going to rise over the coming weeks.
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The preliminary summer forecast has been posted on the subscription website. Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Summer outlook – Click here
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
