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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Winter Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday Night – Snow and rain ending. Slick spots possible. Use care where snow accumulated. Cloudy. Fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Morning fog possible Quite a few clouds. Temperatures may vary a bit since some places picked up an inch or two of snow today.
Temperatures: Highs in the 46 to 54 degree range.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. Fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Winds: Variable winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Morning fog possible. Some clouds. Warm. Breezy at times.
Temperatures: Highs in the 54 to 58 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Mild. Breezy at times.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees!
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy. Warm for February. Breezy.
Temperatures: Highs in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Mild Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the lower to middle 60s. Perhaps increasing clouds on Sunday with a chance for showers.
Maybe a few showers Saturday night and on Sunday. Will monitor Saturday, as well.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Clouds and fog?
2. MUCH warmer temperatures are on the way!
We had a wintry mix move into the area early Tuesday morning. At least portions of the area.
The morning forecast was spot on. But, wow did the afternoon forecast BUST. It has been a long time since I can remember a bust like this. The snow just never did change over to rain. Even though temperatures in the snow areas ranged from 32 to 38 degrees. Snow in the mid to upper 30s!
Some places picked up an inch or two of wet and slushy snow. Some places also picked up freezing rain.
I thought for sure we would all change over to rain. But, several of my forecast counties never did change. It happens sometimes. These heavy wet snow events can keep temperatures just cold enough for snow to continue to fall. Sorry about that. Gave it my best.
Back in the 1980s I remember an event that was forecast to be snow changing to rain. The change never did occur. Snow just kept falling. We ended up with 3-5 inches of wet snow.
Forecasting can be humbling! That is for sure. I never like to bust. Especially true when it comes to something like snow.
Temperatures rose above freezing area-wide before noon.
Our rain and snow maker will exit from west to east this afternoon and evening. That leaves us with some clouds overnight.
Temperatures will fall below freezing tonight. Areas with a little bit of snow will experience some slick spots on roadways. Use care.
Fog and clouds will be the main concern over the next couple of days. Fog being a concern. Clouds being a nuisance.
When warm air moves over cold ground conditions you can experience dense fog. And, low stratus clouds can be hard to shake this time of the year. This is probably the main uncertainty in the forecast. Can we shake the clouds by Thursday. Hopefully so, because temperatures will rise into the 50s and 60s on both Thursday and Friday. Spring fever alert!
Strong and gusty winds are likely on Thursday into the weekend. Southerly winds.
The warmest day will likely be Friday and perhaps Saturday, as well. It is possible that parts of southeast Missouri could reach 70 degrees. Incredible. What a wild swing from just a few days ago.
Winter in our region, never boring.
A cold front will approach the area on Saturday night and Sunday. This could trigger some rain showers. I will keep an eye on it.
Let’s all enjoy the coming days. Clouds or no clouds.
Slick spots possible Tuesday night as temperatures fall below freezing.
No snow or ice expected on Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes in this forecast update.
Slick spots possible Tuesday night where snow accumulated an inch or two.
My main concern over the coming days will be areas of dense fog. Low visibility has been an issue over the past two days. I can’t rule out more fog.
The wild card in the forecast over the coming days will be fog and clouds. Sometimes it is hard to shake both during the winter months. This is especially true when warm air moves over cold ground conditions.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Believe we will have mostly dry weather over the coming days. A bit of a break from the active weather of late.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO through Saturday. Some indications of a chance for thunderstorms around Sunday. Will monitor.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
