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February 16, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Colder. Rain ending. Steady or slowly falling temperatures. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 46 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ Ending IL ~ Ending KY ~ Ending TN ~ Ending
Coverage of precipitation: Ending.
Wind chill values: 30’s
Accumulating snow or ice: No.
Winds: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy early. Becoming cloudy late. Colder. Rain and rain/snow/wintry mix developing after 3 AM. A slushy accumulation of snow possible. Patchy fog, as well.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 26 to 32 KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% late IL ~ 40% late KY ~ 40% late TN ~ 40% late
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage from the southwest after 3 AM.
Wind chill values: 20 to 26
Accumulating snow or ice: A slushy inch or two possible. This would primarily be after 3 AM Saturday.
Winds: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates. Wet roadways, at least. Some slushy snow accumulation possible, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor updates.
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February 17, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow. Heavy wet snow possible across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Large/wet snowflakes. A slushly inch or two possible from northern parts of Bollinger County, MO east across Union and Johnson Counties in Illinois and then towards Hardin County, IL. From there northward stands the best chance of accumulation. Precipitation becoming all rain as temperatures warm. Some light slushy snow accumulation possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: A period of widespread precipitation likely.
Wind chill values: 28 to 38
Accumulating snow or ice: Slushy snow accumulation is possible before snow changes to rain as temperatures warm.
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor updates concerning slushy snow accumulation. Snow covered roads possible where snow intensity is higher.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
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Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: A period of widespread precipitation likely.
Wind chill values: 28 to 38
Accumulating snow or ice: Slushy snow accumulation is possible before snow changes to rain as temperatures warm.
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor updates concerning slushy snow accumulation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. A few clouds. Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 26 to 34 IL ~ 26 to 34 KY ~ 26 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Any remaining precipitation will come to an end.
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No
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February 18, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor updates.
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February 19, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor updates.
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February 20, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers. Turning colder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No, but monitor updates.
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February 21, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:
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Late Friday night through Saturday morning: Precipitation will return late Friday night into Saturday. A mixture of rain, freezing rain, and snow may occur across portions of the region late Friday night & Saturday morning. There is a chance of some slushy accumulation before temperatures rise above freezing.
Saturday afternoon into Tuesday: Winter weather is not anticipated.
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Now through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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The daily outlook can be found at the bottom of this post.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
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This graphic covers late Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
Rain and rain/snow/wintry mix chances ramp up towards Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.
Rainfall totals from this event will likely range from 0.30″ to 0.60″. Pockets of higher totals are certainly possible.
This is my “what is the % chance of X amount of rain”
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Here is the snow outlook for the same time period.
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Forecast:
HIGHLIGHTS
- Colder air has arrived, but don’t worry it won’t last long.
- Our morning rain will come to an end this afternoon.
- Dry the first half of tonight. Precipitation redevelops after 3 AM.
- There is the possibility that the rain begins as a wintry mix or rain/snow. Slushy accumulation can’t be ruled out.
High confidence today.
Low to medium confidence in the forecast Friday night Saturday night forecast.
The main weather story over the next 24 hours will be the precipitation chances.
We have one cold front pushing through the region today. This is what brought the showers and thunderstorms to the region last night. That rain continues to fall across portions of the region. It will exit as we move through the late morning and afternoon hours.
See the radars to track the rain.
Another disturbance quickly moves back into the region tonight. This system will spread rain and rain/snow into southeast Missouri after 3 AM. That precipitation will then spread across the rest of the region as we move through Saturday morning.
It may be cold enough for a wintry mix or rain/snow mix. A slushy accumulation is possible, but as temperatures rise Saturday morning any snow would change to rain.
Here is the future-cast radar from the high-resolution 3K NAM guidance
Green is rain. Blue is snow. The time is in Zulu. That means 12z is 6 AM. 18z is 12 PM. 0z is 6 PM. 06z would be 12 AM.
You can see our quick moving system approaching the area late Saturday night and lasting into Saturday afternoon.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Some rain rain/snow mix possible before temperatures rise above freezing.
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That system will push out of the region by Saturday night.
Dense fog is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. This fog should mix out as we move through Sunday morning.
That leaves the pick day of the weekend as Sunday. Outside of the fog potential, we should see some sunshine. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the 50’s.
Here is the GFS model temperature forecast for Sunday 12 PM. Decent temperatures considering it is February.
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There is the potential of heavy rain next week. Several rounds of rain are likely. Model guidance continues to indicate that several inches of rain may fall in the Ohio and Tennessee River basins. Monitor updates.
Let’s take a look at the GFS model guidance future-cast radar.
Timestamp upper left.
The big question is whether the front stalls in our region Tuesday and Wednesday. If that occurs, then heavy rain totals would be the end result.
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We will need to monitor river stages. Rivers are going to rise over the coming weeks.
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The preliminary summer forecast has been posted on the subscription website. Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Summer outlook – Click here
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
