Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 15th and 16th: SPRING weather ahead!

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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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2016-10-30_19-43-57

Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL ****   $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box!  18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box!  Valentine’s Day enclosure card!  Free delivery in Marshall County!  Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield!   Payment is required at time of order.  To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call.  Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks.  270-205-2552  tracyd@dcelectricinc.com

I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years.   I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious.  Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order.  Birthdays, holidays, or just because!  Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here

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The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology.  Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage.  Visit them on their website and on Facebook.  You can also find them on Twitter.  They are located in Almo, Kentucky.  Phone 270-718-0245

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next).  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do.  Your support helps with all of this

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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February 15, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and cool
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 26 to 32   IL ~ 26 to 30   KY ~ 26 to 32   TN ~26 to 32
Winds:  North and northwest 5 to 10 mph.  Winds becoming calm, late.
Wind Chill when applicable:  26 to 32
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 10:24 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:24 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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February 16, 2017
Thursday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.  Becoming windy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 55 to 60   IL ~  55 to 60   KY ~ 55 to 60   TN ~ 55 to 60   
Winds: South and southwest winds 5 to 10 mph early and then 15 to 30 mph late morning/afternoon
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:40  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:36 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 11:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 42   IL ~ 36 to 42   KY ~ 36 to 44   TN ~36 to 44
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 11:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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February 17, 2017
Friday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Sunny and warm.  Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68   IL ~  64 to 68   KY ~ 64 to 68   TN ~ 64 to 68   
Winds: South and southwest at 12 to 24 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:39  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:37 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 10:29 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some increase in clouds.  Breezy, early.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50  IL ~ 45 to 50   KY ~ 46 to 50   TN ~ 46 to 52
Winds:  South and southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph early.
Wind Chill when applicable
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 10:29 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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February 18, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  A few scattered showers possible.  It may remain dry.   Mild.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps spotty wet roadways.  It may remain dry.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64   IL ~  58 to 64   KY ~ 58 to 64    TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:38  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:38 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2
Moonrise 
will be at 12:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:05 a.m. Last Quarter

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clouds. An isolated shower possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps spotty wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but perhaps check radars
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48  IL ~ 44 to 48    KY ~ 44 to 48    TN ~44 to 48
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 12:18 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:05 a.m. Last Quarter

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February 19, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Sunny.  Warm.  Spring.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74  IL ~  66 to 72   KY ~ 68 to 74   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:36  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:39 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 1:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Mild
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifyingMedium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~48 to 54   KY ~ 48 to 54   TN ~48 to 54
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 1:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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February 20, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  Spring.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75   IL ~  68 to 75  KY ~ 68 to 75   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:35  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:40 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 4
Moonrise 
will be at 2:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:25 p.m. Waning Gibbous

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some increase in clouds.  Mild.  Will monitor shower chances.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Will monitor shower chances.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~50 to 55   KY ~ 50 to 55   TN ~50 to 55
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:25 p.m. Waning Gibbous

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February 21, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Some clouds.  A chance for showers.  Low confidence.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 75   IL ~  68 to 75  KY ~ 68 to 75   TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:34  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:41 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 1
Moonrise 
will be at 2:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:12 p.m. Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy. A chance for a shower.  Low confidence.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~50 to 55   KY ~ 50 to 55   TN ~50 to 55
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:53 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:12 p.m. Waning Gibbous

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More information on the UV index.  Click here

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

Heath Banner

Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.

Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

2015-03-20_19-08-11
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

Wednesday night into Thursday night
Confidence: High

Calm weather with no significant issues.   Lows on Thursday morning will have dipped into the 26 to 32 degree range.  A little above normal.

Highs on Thursday will rise into the 50’s.  Some locations might reach the lower 60’s.  Not bad, for February!

Friday
Confidence: High

Here comes spring, folks.  As if we have even had a winter 🙂  Spring is on the way.  WELL above normal temperatures Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.  The warm air may last through much of next week.  Let’s start, however, with the weekend.

Temperatures on Friday will rise into the 60’s and a few spots could touch 70 degrees.  Saturday will deliver some clouds.  High temperatures might be muted just a bit, because of the cloud cover.  You can expect 60’s for high temperatures on Saturday.

Saturday
Confidence: LOW

The model guidance has been painting some showers for Saturday.  Scattered or spotty.  Some of the guidance keeps the rain south and east of my forecast counties.

We will at least have to deal with some clouds on Saturday.  Perhaps some spotty light showers, as well.

The EC guidance has been the most bullish on showers for Saturday.

Here are the Saturday rainfall totals via the EC guidance.  Not much.  Spotty.  Light totals.

The GFS guidance, on the other hand, keeps the rain to our south and east.  Here is the GFS rainfall map for Saturday.

The Canadian models look similar to the EC guidance.  A few patches of light rain.  Here is the rainfall forecast from the Canadian model.  Not much.

Needless to say, confidence on Saturday’s forecast is low.

Sunday should deliver sunshine and temperatures well into the 60’s and perhaps 70’s.  Mild!

Monday will be a repeat of Sunday, but perhaps even warmer.  Widespread upper 60’s to lower 70’s are anticipated.  It will feel like spring.

Here is the Sunday and Monday high temperature forecast map.

and Monday

Here is the 16 day GFS temperature forecast

Keep in mind that confidence levels drop considerably once you get past day six or seven.

Click to enlarge.  Even the penguins are confused!

Spring has arrived?  For now, at least.

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Find me on Twitter
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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

No rain through Friday night.

A chance for a few spotty showers on Saturday.  Rain totals, if any, will be light.

 

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Thursday low temperature forecast

Thursday afternoon high temperature forecast

Friday low temperature forecast

Friday high temperature forecast


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whatamiconcered

No major concerns.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday night through Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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2014-11-03_7-32-16
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No significant changes.
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 12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

2014-11-24_13-59-16

awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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