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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Winter Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Friday Night – Clearing. Breezy at times. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows from 10-16 degrees. Locally colder.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold. Could still be some slick spots. Low wind chills into the single digits.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Cold. Perhaps some high clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 18 to 28 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold. Low wind chills.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wind chills in the single digits to lower teens.
Saturday Night – Becoming cloudy. A slight chance for snow after 12 am over our western and northern counties of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Some questions remain on the timing.
Temperatures: Lows from 14 to 18 degrees
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% after 12 am on Sunday morning. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Very late at night we might see precipitation develop over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Wind chills from 8-14 degrees. Some wintry precipitation possible late at night over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Sunday – Cloudy. Snow developing. Snow may mix with sleet at times. Snow and sleet may accumulate 1″ to 3″. Roads are likely to become slick and hazardous.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 26-32 degrees.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Wintry mix in the region
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Roads may become snow and ice covered during the day on Sunday.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Roads will become snow and ice covered on Sunday into Sunday night.
Sunday Night – Snow likely. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows from 24-28 degrees
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Some snow possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to have alternative plans
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Slick roads possible.
Monday – Cloudy. Low confidence on Monday’s forecast. A chance for a wintry mix over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Perhaps changing to rain. Some question on how Monday unfolds. Lot of data misses us to the south.
Temperatures: Rising temperatures into the 30s.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread (depending on storm track)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? We may have a wintry mix in the region
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor weather updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Slick roadways will be possible on at least Monday morning.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Bitterly cold air on Friday night and Saturday morning.
2. Snow enters the picture on Sunday and Sunday night
3. A wintry mix possible on Monday
4. Questions remain on timing for precipitation events
A lot of moving parts for the weather over the coming days.
The region picked up 0″-2″ of snow on Thursday night. Some schools were closed. Once again, the amounts of snow varied greatly over the region. It was a tough forecast for some counties. That is one reason I went fairly low on the probabilities. Very narrow band of snow.
Friday night and Saturday:
First, we have a blast of arctic air that arrives Friday night and Saturday. Low temperatures will be bitterly cold. Expect widespread teens.
Here is a map of possible low temperatures. Temperatures typically vary considerably in situations like this. Shallow cold air can ooze around a bit. But, generally speaking, this is what temperatures should look like on Saturday morning.
Our next weather maker is already on the weather map.
A disturbance will move in from the north and west on Saturday night and Sunday.
Timing of precipitation will need to be monitored for late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Lower confidence on timing. Higher confidence on the precipitation.
Some snow and sleet will be possible over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Saturday night. Areas from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois should see precipitation arrive between 12 am and 5 am on Sunday morning.
The precipitation will spread east/southeast during the day on Sunday.
Right now, subject to adjustments, it appears snow will arrive in western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee between 6 am and 12 pm.
Now, with that said, occasionally these events can speed up a bit. But, the above is my initial first thoughts.
Roads will be cold. Anything that falls will stick. Roads are likely to become hazardous fairly quickly. Especially side roads. Use care, as always.
Snow and sleet will continue on Sunday evening into Sunday night.
Snow and sleet are forecast to taper off late Sunday night and Monday morning from west to east.
Here is my first call probabilities for Sunday.
Let’s look at a few maps from weatherbell.com
This is the high resolution WRF map. This is for 11 pm to 1 am on Saturday night and Sunday morning. The grey and green represents snow. Some of this might be virga. Virga is precipitation that is falling from the clouds, but not reaching the ground. Why? Because of dry air aloft.
You can see moisture also moving up from the Gulf of Mexico.
This next map is for Sunday morning around 3 am. Precipitation continues to expand over the region.
I caution you, timing of precipitation is not certain for Sunday morning. This guidance brings it in fairly rapidly.
This map is for Sunday morning at 6 am. Again, the colors represent snow in our region. Ignore the green. This will not be rain. The computer model isn’t correcting itself.
This next image is for 11 am to 12 pm on Sunday.
There remain a LOT Of questions concerning the forecast for Monday.
Over the past week you have likely seen some crazy snow maps for Sunday and Monday. I have seen many of them, as well. It is never wise to post snow maps days and days in advance. Why? Because they rarely verify.
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over Arkansas and Louisiana on Monday and then track east/northeast. The exact track and intensity of that area of low pressure will be key to what happens locally.
If the track is far enough north then additional precipitation will occur over our region. If the track is too far south then we won’t have to worry about additional precipitation.
In addition to the questions on track, there are questions on temperatures. Most of the data warms our region above freezing on Monday. Is that possible? Some of this will depend on how much snow falls on Sunday.
Lot of questions on Monday. Less questions on Sunday.
Confidence is high on Sunday’s event. Confidence is low on Monday’s event.
I am also watching another system for Tuesday.
Active pattern continues.
We may turn milder next Thursday and Friday. Perhaps 50s.
Sunday – Wintry mix likely. Snow, sleet, and maybe freezing rain. More likely snow and a little sleet.
Friday night – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday night – Late at night snow might develop over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Sunday – Snow and sleet are possible. High confidence.
Sunday night – Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible. Medium confidence.
Monday – Wintry mix? Low confidence.
Monday’s forecast continues to evolve. Low confidence.
Updated winds on Saturday and Sunday.
Main concern will be bitterly cold air on Friday night and Saturday morning. Temperatures into the 10-16 degree range for lows. Brrrr
Another concern will be wintry precipitation on Sunday and Sunday night.
Yes, monitor updates concerning winter weather over the coming days.
Be prepared for slick roads on Sunday and Sunday night/Monday morning
The wild card will be the timing of snow and sleet on Sunday. Morning? Or early afternoon? Data is a bit mixed on this. Right now, I believe snow and sleet will spread into southeast Missouri before 10 am. Then spread eastward.
Second wild card is a big one. Sunday night (late) and Monday’s precipitation type. Will it be warm enough for rain? I believe it could be warm enough, at some point, on Monday for rain. But, not before snow and sleet/freezing rain at the beginning of the system. And, what will the storm track be? Will it be further north or south?
Some data misses us on Monday. The storm tracks too far south and east and causes the precipitation to shift south of my forecast counties.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO through next Wednesday.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
