Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 12th and 13th: A nice Monday for the region

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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next).  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do.  Your support helps with all of this

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

February 12, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Clearing and colder.  Local cold spots if the wind dies down.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Temperatures:  MO ~ 26 to 34   IL ~ 26 to 34   KY ~ 26 to 34   TN ~28 to 34
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph becoming north at 3 to 6 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 7:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:45 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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February 13, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Some morning sun and then increasingly cloudy through the day.  Clouds moving in from the west.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 45 to 52   IL ~  46 to 52   KY ~ 46 to 54   TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds
: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:33 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2
Moonrise 
will be at 8:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:19 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  A few showers possible late tonight.  Best chances will be across southern Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Spotty wet roadways possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 36 to 42  IL ~ 3 to 40   KY ~ 36 to 42   TN ~36 to 44
Winds: Variable winds at 0 to 5 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 8:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:19 a.m. Waning Gibbous

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February 14, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered light rain over southern Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and Tennessee.  Lesser chances northward.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible over our southern counties in the region
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps have an alternative plan in mind for our southern counties.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 46 to 54   IL ~  46 to 54   KY ~ 46 to 54   TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: Southwest and west at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:42  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:34 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 9:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:52 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clouds southern half of the region and partly cloudy north.  Cloudier over the Missouri Bootheel, southern Missouri, and Tennessee.  Into western Kentucky, as well.  Spotty showers possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars (esp southern half of the region)
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 34 to 38   IL ~ 34 to 38   KY ~ 34 to 38   TN ~35 to 40
Winds:  West and southwest winds at 4 to 8 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 9:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:52 a.m. Waning Gibbou
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More information on the UV index.  Click here

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

Sunday night
Confidence: High

Cool and calm weather for Sunday night.  Winds will die off overnight.  If the winds become calm then temperatures could fall into the middle 20’s.  Some disagreement in the guidance on that subject.  Either way, let’s plan on upper 20’s to lower 30’s for lows.

Monday and Monday night
Confidence: High

Calm weather for Monday.  Temperatures near normal to a little above normal.

A weak weather system will push through the region on Monday night and Tuesday.  A few spotty showers or snow showers will be possible with this system.  At this time, we are not anticipating any snow accumulation or travel problems.

Precipitation totals from a trace to perhaps as much as 0.05″.  Not much.

The system has some moisture to work with, but the lower levels of the atmosphere will be very dry.  Precipitation that falls through this dry layer should evaporate (for much of the time precipitation is occurring).  Thus, only light amounts are anticipated.

Here is a sounding slice of the atmosphere.  See that large dry layer?   When the red and green are not touching then that means the atmospheric column is not completely saturated.

Future-cast radar does show precipitation.  Again, a lot of this won’t reach the ground.  Far northern counties have the best shot at something reaching the ground and then from southern Missouri into Arkansas.

I will monitor trends, at update accordingly.

This is 12 AM on Tuesday.  Green would be rain or some wet snowflakes and rain.  Again, some of this may not reach the ground.

This next image is for 7 am on Tuesday.  The green colors represent rain.  Dry air aloft will eat into the rain and cause it to evaporate.  I have sprinkles in the forecast, for the time being.

On Wednesday a system passes to our south.  Assuming it does not shift north, we should remain dry.

A few weeks ago the models showed this as a heavy snowstorm in our region.

Dry weather is anticipated for Thursday into Saturday.

I continue to monitor the 20th through 22nd/23rd.  Long way out.  Perhaps some showers and thunderstorms.  Perhaps some colder air by the end of the month.

Meteorological spring begins on March 1st.

Here is the system on the 20th/21st

 

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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?

 

No rain on Sunday night or Monday

We may have some spotty rain or snow showers on Monday night and Tuesday.

No significant precipitation is anticipated.  Trace amounts of precipitation to less than 0.05″ are forecasted.

High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Monday low temperature forecast

Monday afternoon high temperature forecast

Tuesday low temperature forecast

Tuesday high temperature forecast

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whatamiconcered

No major concerns.
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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Sunday night throughThursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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