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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Friday night – Clear and chilly. Some patchy late night fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 26 to 32 degrees
Winds: Northeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy morning fog could again occur in the region. Fog with temperatures below freezing can cause slick spots.
Saturday – Partly cloudy as the day wears on. Decent temperatures for December. There is a chance of some patchy morning fog.
Temperatures: Highs in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: East/southeast winds at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy morning fog could again occur in the region. Fog with temperatures below freezing can cause slick spots.
Saturday night – An increase in clouds. Small chance for patchy drizzle or a sprinkle.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy wet roadways are possible if sprinkles/drizzle does develop.
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Mostly cloudy sky conditions. Small chance for a shower or sprinkle.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly cloudy. A small chance for a sprinkle or shower before 7 am.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways before 7 am
Monday night – Clearing sky conditions. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: South winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Not too bad for December.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Not too bad for December.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild for December.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm Saturday on tap for the region
2. Patchy fog again possible Saturday and Sunday morning
3. Weak system passes through the region on Sunday/Monday
4. Small chance for drizzle, sprinkles, or a light shower with the system
5. Calm Monday through Thursday
6. A bit more active in the long range
Friday started out quite cold over the region. Numerous reporting stations recorded low temperatures in the 20s. Some areas of patchy fog also caused a few slick spots. You have to watch fog on these chilly winter mornings. The moisture from the fog can create patchy slick spots on bridges and roadways. Keep that in mind as we move through the coming months.
Our streak of calm weather days will continue on Saturday. Perhaps a few more clouds as a disturbance approaches our region from the west/northwest. This disturbance will spark a few patches of light drizzle on Saturday night/Sunday morning. And, then again on Sunday night.
Rainfall totals are forecast to be 0.00″-0.10″. Some spots will not pick up any measurable rainfall. The best chance for a light shower will likely be Sunday night.
I am not tracking any significant rain or snow systems through next Thursday.
I am watching a more active period as we push into next weekend lasting through the fourth week of the month. Perhaps 2-3 storm systems to monitor. Will one of those produce frozen precipitation? Too soon to know. I know many of you have been asking me that question.
Enjoy your weekend.
No snow anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No significant changes to this forecast package.
No major concerns. Watch out for morning fog on these chilly mornings. Sometimes the fog can deposit a thin layer of ice on surfaces.
Calm weather to continue. Watch out for morning fog on these chilly mornings. Sometimes the fog can deposit a thin layer of ice on surfaces.
The wild card in this update will be whether or not a couple of light showers develop Sunday night and Monday. If we do have a shower develop then amounts will be light.
Frost possible Friday – Sunday mornings. Watch out for patchy fog. This can sometimes cause a few slick spots. Moisture from the fog can freeze on some surfaces.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A few patches of light rain or drizzle will be possible late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Then again on Sunday night.
Rainfall totals should be less than 0.10″. Some places will likely not pick up any measurable rainfall.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Saturday through next Thursday
.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
