December 29, 2019: Rain and more rain.

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A quick glance at the next seven days.

Additional rainfall today and tonight. Click to enlarge.

The wind forecast

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Sunday through Sunday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Sunday into Sunday evening.
Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few of the storms could be intense today east of the Land Between the Lakes.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Ponding of water, low-land flooding, and sharp rises on streams and rivers is anticipated from the heavy rainfall. Some commonly flooded roadways could have issues.
Is ACCUMULATING snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Will wind chill values drop below 10 degrees? No

What changes might occur in the forecast? Important forecast notes.

Rain chances on Thursday will need to be monitored.

December 29, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence.
Sunday’s Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms. Locally moderate to heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. A few thunderstorms could produce strong wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy and turning colder. Rain likely. Breezy. Rain tapering off west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread before midnight. Ending west to east overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Some locally heavy downpours. Lightning is possible early in the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes. Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:50 am
Moonset: 8:13 pm
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 30, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Monday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° SE MO 28° to 30° South IL 28° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30° West KY 28° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:24 am
Moonset: 9:12 pm
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

December 31, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Tuesday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 28° SE MO 25° to 28° South IL 25° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph.
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:55 AM
Moonset: 10:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 1, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Wednesday’s Forecast: Increasing clouds from the southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 48° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of a shower (mainly late).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° SE MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:22 AM
Moonset: 11:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 2, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Thursday’s Forecast: Cloudy with rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 46° to 54° NW TN 48° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:49 AM
Moonset: 12:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

January 3, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Friday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 52° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates concerning rain coverage
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° SE MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:14 PM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

January 4, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny and mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 34° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:41 PM
Moonset: 12:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

January 5, 2019
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence.
Sunday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° SE MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 34° West KY 28° to 32° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:
1Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:11 PM
Moonset: 1:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Damp conditions today and tonight.
Locally heavy rain today and this evening.
Another round of rain on Thursday.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence.

The icon can mean rain or snow.

Click to enlarge these graphics.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through January 3rd: A few of the thunderstorms on Sunday between 11 AM and 8 PM could produce strong and gusty winds, as well. The chance on Sunday will shift further east.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Here is the going forecast for our local area (for additional rain totals). Click image to enlarge.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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Widespread rain over the next 18 hours.
Dry Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Another rain-maker on Thursday.

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Advice:

Avoid flooded roadways.

Weather Forecast Analysis

The main weather story is the ongoing rain event.

Saturday and Saturday night the region picked up between 0.50″ to 2.00″ of rain. The heaviest rain totals were along and east of the Mississippi River.

Locally heavy rain will occur with this event today and tonight. An additional 0.50″ to 1.50″ of rain is anticipated. Locally higher totals over Kentucky and Tennessee.

There could be some ponding of water on roadways. Some low-land flooding is also likely. You can expect sharp rises on area streams and rivers.

A couple of the thunderstorms could be intense later today across south-central Kentucky. That would mainly be along and east of a line from Murray, Kentucky to Central City, Kentucky. Overall, the risk is small.

Rain will end from west to east as we move through tonight. That will leave Monday dry and a bit cooler.

Rain chances return Wednesday night and especially on Thursday and Thursday night.

SHORT and LONG RANGE SNOW OUTLOOK:

I suppose if you like snow then you can watch this system around January 7th.

Long way off. No confidence in that range. Something to monitor.

The GFS model shows snow, as well.

The EC model shows snow.

The GFS model

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

Here is the Hrrr model guidance future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. You can see the timing of the showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

You can see the surge of rain returning as we move through today.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers December 27th through January 3rd

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers January 3rd through the 9th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.90″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers January 10th through the 23rd

Click on the image to expand it.

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Precipitation outlook

LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

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Android users click here

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.