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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Friday – Partly sunny. An increase in clouds during the afternoon hours. It will be unseasonably mild with high temperatures well into the 50’s. Winds will be southerly at 5-10 mph. Enjoy this day – it will be turning colder soon.
Friday night – Cloudy sky conditions. A chance for some light showers after midnight. It will be mild for December. Low temperatures will be in the 40’s. South winds at 5-10 mph.
Saturday – Rain showers likely It will be cloudy and mild to start off with. Temperatures will start to fall late in the day as a cold front advances across the region from west to east. High temperatures will top off in the 50-55 degree range but fall into the 40’s late in the day. South winds at 10 mph will turn out of the west by evening.
Saturday night – A few lingering rain showers possible. Otherwise, cloudy sky conditions. It will be colder than recent nights. Low temperatures will be in the middle 30’s. Northwest winds at 10 mph.
Sunday – A seasonably chilly start for your Sunday morning. It should be mostly cloudy with a small chance for a shower. It will be colder than recent days. High temperatures will only be in the 40’s. Northwest winds at 10 mph.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days.
HAPPY FRIDAY, EVERYONE!
I hope you had a wonderful Christmas. The weather was nice. I did not hear any complaints.
I only posted a brief update on Thursday. But, many of you probably didn’t realize that the snow event for central and northern Illinois on Wednesday was a HUGE forecast bust.
The National Weather Service issued a number of advisories and watches for the event. The models all seemed to key in on a strong area of low pressure bringing a band of heavy snow to portions of the State of Illinois. Even up to 12 hours before the event everything seemed on track. But, in the end, very little if any snow fell.
This was another reminder of how bad the weather models can be when it comes to forecasting winter storms. I am glad that the bust was not in our region. Can you imagine a “white Christmas” winter storm that ends up not happening! Ouch. No thank you.
High pressure will dominate our weather today. That means dry conditions with southerly winds. It also means mild temperatures. Highs today will top out in the 50’s! It won’t really feel like December. Don’t get too used to that – cold air is already in the charts for later this weekend and into next week.
Later tonight we will start to see a new weather system approach our region from the south and the west. This system will spread clouds back into the region and even a few light showers.
An area of low pressure will pass to our north on Saturday. This will drag a cold front into our region. Rain will accompany the front. The rain will be ahead and behind the front.
Here is the future-cast radar maps
This map is for 5 am on Saturday morning. You can see some light showers starting to dot the radar. These showers are moving in from the west and southwest. They will overspread the region on Saturday morning and afternoon. These maps are from www.weatherbell.com
This map below is for around 10 am on Saturday morning. Widespread showers over our region. Some moderate downpours, as well.
And finally, this map is for Saturday evening. You can see the bulk of the precipitation pushing off to our east. There will be some remaining light showers into Saturday night and perhaps even Sunday.
Temperatures will rise into the 50’s on Saturday morning and early afternoon. However, as the cold front advances through the region we will see temperatures start to fall from west to east. By Saturday evening some of our counties will have fallen into the 40’s.
Seasonably cold air will filter into the region on Saturday night into Sunday night. Some additional light showers will also be possible. Right now it appears that temperatures will stay above freezing on Saturday night and Sunday. That means all the precipitation will fall in the liquid form. Sorry snow fans (you just can’t get a break).
Monday and Tuesday will bring chilly temperatures, but we should remain dry. A system will skirt to our south on Monday or Monday night. Perhaps spreading some clouds into our local counties.
This is the Canadian weather model and it shows the Monday system moving south and southeast of our local counties. If this is the case then we will only have some increase in clouds from that particular system. This map is from www.weatherbell.com
See the extended discussion for the next step down in temperatures.
No major changes.
No major concerns for today. Rain chances increase on Saturday.
The wild card tells you where the most uncertainty is in the current forecast.
Wild card in this forecast – no wild card today!
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Will I need to take action?
No action required today. Some umbrella weather for Saturday.
How much rain should this system produce over our region?
A few opinions on how much rainfall the Saturday system will bring our region. I think a safe forecast bet would be between 0.25″-0.50″
There are some data sets that show heavier amounts. Here are a couple of maps.
This first map is from the high resolution NAM model. It does show a band of heavier totals cutting right through the heart of our region. That yellow and orange area would be over an inch of rain. I am not sold on that right now. But, I will monitor it. We could use some rain.
Here is the official rainfall forecast grids from the National Weather Service (below). And this appears reasonable to me.
Check out those BIG totals way way south of our region. Impressive rain event along the Gulf of Mexico.
These totals are through Sunday. Keep in mind most of our rain will fall on Saturday.
Note the heaviest totals are along the KY/TN border. The blue area represents 0.50″-0.70″
This map is from www.weatherbell.com
I have no good news for snow lovers. Keep checking back. No frozen precipitation in the short range forecast.
An arctic high pressure area will slip down into the central United States next week. This Canadian high pressure center will be centered well to our west. That means the coldest air will be to our north and west. We will, however, experience much colder air by Tuesday through Thursday. Lows will likely dip into the lower 20’s. Some of the data indicates teens will be possible. I don’t want to go that cold just yet. But, it will feel more like winter for the last week of December.
A large chunk of North America has been milder than normal over the last 7 days. Here is the anomaly map. This shows you how many degrees above normal we have been. This map is from www.weatherbell.com
Concerning the upcoming cold wave…
I can’t seem to find any real snow chances with the cold air. Perhaps some snow showers with the arctic front itself, but even that appears iffy.
There are a few systems to monitor for next week and the following week. Right now the signals are not strong enough to mention precipitation. The models have been HORRIBLE lately. So, buying into one model or another is not the best idea. Let’s just monitor the storm systems as they push into the western United States and see how they evolve. There will be plenty of time to adjust the forecast as we move forward.
Here is the GFS model showing the big area of high pressure settling into the Central United States on Wednesday morning.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
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