Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 23, 2016: Unsettled and warmer.

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Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab).  Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide everyone the data and forecasts.  Your support is important.  Thank you.

The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  You will also find the password there.  The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.

Winter storm outlook has been posted.  Updated Monday, December 19, 2016

Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab

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Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects.  Including our yearly teddy bear program.  We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.  We are planning on adding a new charity in January.  Stay tuned for that announcement!

Also, big announcement on Christmas Day!

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Contest:

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Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving!  I will be giving away weather radios and some other items!  There will be forty winners.  Contest begins now.

Here is the link for the contest.  Click here

You may enter once every 24 hours!  For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.

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December 22, 2016
Thursday Night:  Becoming cloudy.  A 30% for late-night showers. Perhaps a brief period of wintry mix over the Missouri Ozarks.  
What impact is expected
?  Most likely none.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying
 Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 26 to 32 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  North winds becoming east at 5 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 40%   IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30%  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Perhaps wintry mix for the Missouri Ozarks.  Most of the precipitation will arrive on Friday.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:53 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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December 23, 2016
Friday:   Cloudy with scattered light rain and showers developing.  Gusty winds possible during the afternoon and evening.  Light wintry mix possible before 10 am over the Missouri Ozarks.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High. This forecast should verify. 
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill
Winds:  East/southeast winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 50%  TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Scattered showers.  Increasing coverage in the afternoon and evening.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely.  Small risk over the Missouri Ozarks.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 1:51 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:24 p.m.  Waning Crescent
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Friday Night:  Cloudy.  Showers likely.  Gusty winds possible.  Patchy fog.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying
 High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 38-44 degree range
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southwest at 8-16 mph with higher gusts possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 90%  IL ~ 90%  KY ~ 90%  TN ~ 90%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Numerous to widespread showers
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

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December 24, 2016
Saturday:   Cloudy.  Drizzle or patchy light showers possible.  Milder.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range
Wind Chill
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming west and eventually northeast/east at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Patchy
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Patchy drizzle or light showers possible.  I would not cancel plans, but monitor radars.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:43 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 2:45 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:57 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Saturday Night:  Cloudy.  Isolated showers or drizzle.  Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Lower visibility because of fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying
High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill
Winds:  East and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 20%   IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Isolated to widely scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.

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December 25, 2016
Christmas Day
Sunday:  Perhaps patchy morning fog.  Cloudy.  Breezy, at times.  Well above normal temperatures.  Isolated rain showers or drizzle possible.  
What impact is expected?  Gusty winds.  Perhaps some wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill:  N/A
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 8-16 mph.  Gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Patchy
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunrise 
will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 3:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:31 p.m.  Waning Crescent
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Sunday Night:  Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as the night wears on.  Breezy.  Unseasonably mild.  Rising temperatures ahead of the cold front.  
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Locally heavy rain.  Will monitor storm risk.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying
High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows mostly in the 50’s.  Temperatures steady or slowly rising the first half of the night.
Wind Chill:  
Winds:  South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 10-20 mph.  Gusts above 25 mph likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 60%   IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Perhaps widespread.  Coverage will depend on the timing of the cold front.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Rain will be a possibility. 

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December 26, 2016
Monday:  Morning showers likely.  Perhaps a thunderstorm.  Showers ending from west to east as the day wears on.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are likely.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range early in the day and falling into the 50’s behind the cold front.
Wind Chill
Winds:  South becoming southwest and eventually west/northwest at 8-16 mph with higher gusts possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Perhaps widespread the first half of the day.  Becoming scattered during the afternoon. Ending from west to east.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars.  Have a plan B. 
Sunrise 
will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 4:34 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:10 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Monday Night:  Some clouds.  Isolated shower before 5 pm over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are likely.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 30-35 degree range
Wind Chill:  
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Ending
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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December 27, 2016
Tuesday:  Partly cloudy.  A shower is possible.  Wintry mix?  Let’s keep an eye on temperatures over the region.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps a light wintry fix for portions of the area.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are likely.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill
Winds:  Northeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30%  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
Sunrise 
will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:52 p.m.  Waning Crescent 
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Tuesday Night:  Cloudy.  Precipitation possible.  Wintry mix or rain showers/drizzle.  Monitor updates.
What impact is expected
?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are likely.

Temperatures:  Lows in the 30-35 degree range
Wind Chill:  
Winds: 
What is the chance of precipitation?
  MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of
precipitation
:
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

CHRISTMAS GIVEAWAY!!!  FORTY WINNERS.

I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio).  I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service.  I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!

You may enter once per day through Christmas.  You must wait 24 hours before re-entering.  The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day!  There will be FORTY winners!

Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.

You can find more information on the Beau  Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.

The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.

You may enter once each day!  You have to wait 24 hours before each entry.  For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.

Click graphic to enter the contest.

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beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Rain chances on the increase
  2.  Mild weekend with above normal temperatures
  3.  Christmas 2016 will be a mild one
  4.  Cold front on Sunday night and Monday
  5.  BIG Christmas giveaway contest continues.  I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)!  Subscriptions to the texting service!  A $100 gift card from Amazon.  The contest is open NOW!  You must wait 24 hours before entering each day.  See details below.  There will be FORTY winners!

An active weather pattern over the coming weeks.  Several systems to monitor.  Solid rounds of cold air are not showing up in the charts through this weekend and probably next week, as well.

We may have to look into January to move back into the sustained cold spells.  Time will tell.  It has been a cold December.

A couple of weather systems will push into the region over the coming days.  Each should produce some showers/rain/drizzle/clouds and gusty winds.

The first system arrives late Thursday night into Friday.  Patchy light rain showers are possible on Friday morning.  Widespread rain arrives on Friday afternoon into Friday night.  Locally heavy rain is possible over portions of western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and western Tennessee.

There will be a brief window of opportunity for a wintry mix over our far western counties of southeast Missouri.  The Ozarks area.  That would primarily be before 10 am on Friday.

Rainfall totals of 0.30″ to 0.60″ are anticipated area wide.  A band of 0.60″ to 1.00″ (locally higher) is possible over the above-mentioned areas.  The heavier totals will depend on where the boundary slows a bit.  See the rainfall forecast total maps below.  There remains some question on the placement of heavier rain bands.

The Chicago to Paducah flight and Paducah to Chicago flights on Friday will have to deal with frozen precipitation on the Chicago side of the trip.  Plan on cancellations as a possibility if you are flying from Chicago to Paducah.  There is at least some risk for problems.

Here is the Friday afternoon/evening precipitation forecast map.  Blue represents snow.  Might be a rain/snow mix in Chicago.  Low ceilings possible.

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Saturday and Sunday will deliver clouds and spotty drizzle and light rain.  Otherwise, plenty of clouds.  Above normal temperatures.  Gusty winds, as well.

A stronger cold front sweeps through the region on Sunday night and Monday.  A few thunderstorms may accompany the front.  A band of showers will accompany the front, as well.  Gusty winds.

Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday and Sunday.  Expect 50’s on Saturday and 60’s on Christmas Day.  Warm.  Normal high temperatures are in the upper 40’s.  Seems like we swing from one extreme to the next.

Temperature anomaly map for Saturday and Sunday.  How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be?

Saturday

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Sunday

WELL above normal temperatures ahead of the cold front.  Warm air surging northward.  It won’t feel like winter on Sunday.  Sorry, snow lovers.

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Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar maps for the coming days.

What radar might look like.  Green represents rain showers.  Yellow represents heavier rain.

This is the 12 am Friday image.  Maybe some light showers.  Most of tonight (Thursday night) might remain dry.  Increasing clouds.  Lowering cloud deck.  Perhaps some patchy light rain.

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This next image is for 9 am on Friday.  You can see rain increasing over our region.  This might be a bit overdone.  At least a few showers possible.    Blue is snow.

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This next image is for 6 pm on Friday.  Rain will increase in coverage on Friday afternoon and evening.

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This next image is for 9 pm on Friday.  Some moderate downpours in our area.  I will need to monitor that heavier band.  This would cause some heavier rain totals in a band from SW to NE.  See the rainfall forecast graphics further down in the blog.

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This next image is for 12 am on Saturday.  Again, we need to monitor the placement of the heavier rain band.

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This next image is for 3 am on Saturday

Again, that heavier band placement is in question.  It could be further south.  Confidence is lower on that part of the forecast.

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This is the 6 am Saturday future-cast radar.

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9 am on Saturday

refcmp_ptype-wxt_ov-7

Saturday should produce some patchy drizzle in the area.  Light showers, as well.

This is the 9 pm image.  You can see spotty light rain in the region.  Drizzle/light showers.

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This next image is for Christmas Day at 9 am

Clouds and perhaps some patchy drizzle/light showers on Christmas Day.

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6 pm Sunday/Christmas Day.  The front is pushing into our region from the west.  Gusty winds.

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The front will arrive late Sunday night and Monday morning.

This is the 12 am Monday future-cast radar

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This is the 6 am Monday image.

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12 pm Monday image

The front will push across the entire region on Monday.  The timing of the rain will depend on the placement of the front.  Plan on increasing chances for showers on Sunday night and Monday.  Maybe a thunderstorm.  Gusty winds.

Severe weather, at this time, appears unlikely.

prateptype_cat-wxt_ov-4

Another system may brush the region on Tuesday/Wednesday.  Another one late next week.

I will be monitoring temperatures on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  We might have to deal with a wintry mix for portions of the region.  Low confidence.

Have a wonderful holiday weekend.  Merry Christmas, everyone.

Be sure and enter the contest.

To view the winter weather outlook sign into your www.weathertalk.com account and click the Daily Weather Summary button.  Then, follow the directions.

Find me on Twitter, as well!

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

This image is the official NOAA/WPC/NWS rainfall forecast graphic.

This first map is for the Friday into Saturday rainfall totals.  The NAM model is showing a band of heavier totals across our local area.

The next two images are from other guidance packages.  All three show the potential for heavier rain in a band across portions of our region.  The question is placement.  Guidance is mixed as to whether that heavier band should be further south vs north.  Let’s monitor trends.

Keep in mind, this is system one of two.  The next system arrives Sunday night and Monday.

Regional view

Click to enlarge

These totals are for the Friday/Friday night event

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Another opinion on totals

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Another opinion on totals

The GFS is further south with the heavier totals

qpf_acc-wxt_ov

The second system arrives on Sunday night/Monday.   Now, there could be light showers or drizzle at any given point on Saturday through Sunday.  Organized/widespread rain, however, will likely hold off until the cold front arrives Sunday night and Monday morning.

Rainfall totals from that event

qpf_024h-wxt_ov

Temperature Outlook 

Friday morning low temperatures.
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Friday afternoon high temperatures

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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon high
 temperatures
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Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon high
 temperatures
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.Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday night through Saturday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday night and Monday:  Some thunderstorms are possible as a cold front moves through the area.  Most likely on Sunday night/Monday morning.  Still some timing issues on the front.  I will monitor the severe potential.  The overall severe weather risk appears low.

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.No major changes.  Updated wind and temperatures.
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whatamiconcered

No major concerns through Friday morning.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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