Sunday update
The main concern for the week ahead will be a storm system forecast to arrive Wednesday afternoon and night.
This system will bring widespread rain to the region. The rain will come to an end by Friday.
There is a chance the rain ends as snow. That will be highly dependent on the eventual storm track and the intensity of the area of low pressure.
Rain totals of 0.75″ to 1.50″ are likely with this next precipitation event.
December 17, 2018
Monday forecast: Partly sunny. Any morning fog will mix out. Decent day temperature wise.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 52 to 55 IL ~46 to 52 KY ~ 50 to 54 TN ~ 52 to 55
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 43 to 48
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None unless we have some morning patchy fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 26 to 32 IL ~ 25 to 30 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 28 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 22 to 26
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:30 PM
Moonrise: 1:29 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:22 AM
December 18, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny with a few clouds from time to time. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 46 to 50 IL ~ 46 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 50 TN ~ 48 to 50
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 40 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some morning patchy fog with reduced visibility
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. Some late night clouds. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 34 IL ~ 30 to 34 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 28 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 2:00 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 2:22 AM
December 19, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Increasing clouds through the day. An afternoon rain shower possible in southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~50 to 54 KY ~ 52 to 55 TN ~ 54 to 56
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None AM hours. Isolated PM hours. (mainly MO)
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some isolated wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Some isolated PM showers could make for damp conditions. There remain some questions as to when the rain showers will arrive. I would not change any plans. I would monitor updates and radars. The rain may hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday.
UV Index: 3 to 4 Medium
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers developing.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 35 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southw and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Most likely no
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel evening plans. I would monitor updates and radars. The exact timing of the rain moving into the region is still a bit of a question.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could cause issues for outdoor activities, especially as we move later into the night.
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 2:35 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 3:26 AM
December 20, 2018
Thursday forecast: Rain likely. Becoming breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 50 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 40 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty. Winds will be variable at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Wet conditions will interfere with outdoor activities. Gusty winds will also be an issue.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Rain likely. Breezy. Turning colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 32 to 35 IL ~ 32 to 35 KY ~ 34 to 36 TN ~ 34 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 18 to 28
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? It appears the rain may end before the colder air arrives. Monitor updates in case this changes.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? It appears the rain may end before the colder air arrives. Monitor updates in case this changes.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and gusty wind conditions.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes. Damp conditions combined with strong winds will make it feel uncomfortable outside. I am monitoring the snow chances, as well. It appears the rain may end before the colder air arrives. Monitor updates in case this changes.
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 3:15 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 4:32 AM
December 21, 2018
Friday forecast: Rain evening. Rain may end as a wintry mix or snow. It is possible the cold air holds off just long enough for this to end as plain rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending west to east
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? The precipitation may end before the cold air arrives. Monitor updates.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Perhaps
Are icy road conditions anticipated? The precipitation may end before the cold air arrives. Monitor updates.
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Damp. Cold wind chill values. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B before 10 AM and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes. Cold wind chill values combined with damp conditions will make it unpleasant.
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 25 to 30 IL ~ 25 to 30 KY ~ 25 to 30 TN ~ 25 to 30
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 18 to 24
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Other than cold temperatures, no.
Sunset: 4:41 PM
Moonrise: 4:03 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 5:42 AM
December 22, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 52
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 45 to 50
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 26 to 32 IL ~ 26 to 32 KY ~ 28 to 32 TN ~ 30 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
Sunset: 4:41 PM
Moonrise: 4:57 PM Full
Moonset: 6:48 AM
December 23, 2018
Sunday forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~43 to 46 KY ~ 43 to 46 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no impacts.
Sunset: 4:42 PM
Moonrise: 6:00 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:53 AM
December 24, 2018
Christmas Eve
Monday forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers. I am monitoring a fast-moving system that could bring precipitation back into the region Monday into Monday night. There remain questions about how much moisture will be available. Monitor updates moving forward.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to widely scattered. Monitor updates.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? A few showers could make for damp conditions. The bulk of the rain, if this system occurs, should hold off until Monday night/Tuesday. There remain some questions about the timing of the system.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Christmas Eve
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Monitor updates. Some precipitation is possible. Temperatures are in question.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Monitor updates. Some precipitation is possible. Temperatures are in question.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Monitor updates. Some precipitation is possible. Temperatures are in question.
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Damp conditions are possible.
Sunset: 4:42 PM
Moonrise: 7:08 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:52 AM
December 25, 2018
Christmas
Tuesday forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps none. I will be monitoring an incoming system that should arrive Monday night. We will have to see if it moves out fast enough to end precipitation chances by Christmas day.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Christmas Night
Forecast: Increasing clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:43 PM
Moonrise: 8:19 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:44 AM
