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December 14, 2018
Friday forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Some moderate rain. A thunderstorm possible. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~46 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? A few creeks may flood, ditches may fill, and field flooding will be possible.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast becoming east and northeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Possible lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Wet conditions will impact outdoor activities.
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers possible. Moderate rain possible. A thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 35 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? A few creeks may flood, ditches may fill, and field flooding will be possible.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 8 to 16 mph becoming northwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning. A few ditches may flood.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Some remaining rain showers could make for wet conditions. Gusty winds are a concern for outdoor activities, as well.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:01 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:26 PM
December 15, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Rain should taper as we move through the afternoon and evening hours. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 t0 46 IL ~43 t0 46 KY ~ 43 t0 46 TN ~ 43 t0 46
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 4o to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Rain will taper off as we push into the afternoon hours.
Is flooding anticipated? A few creeks may flood, ditches may fill, and field flooding will be possible.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A few areas could have issues with field flooding, flooded ditches and creeks.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during at least the morning hours. Monitor the afternoon forecast.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain will cause wet conditions for outdoor activities.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds. Isolated showers remaining. Becoming partly cloudy. Chilly. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 28 to 34
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated early in the night. Rain ending.
Is flooding anticipated? A few creeks may flood, ditches may be full of water, and some fields may flood.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Evening wet roadways. Fog possible. Fog would lower visibility.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? During the evening hours, we could still have wet roadways. Lower visibility if fog forms.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:30 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:01 PM
December 16, 2018
Sunday forecast: Partly sunny. Morning fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Fog possible. Fog would lower visibility.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Perhaps some patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated?
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Fog possible. Fog would lower visibility.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:57 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 12:23 AM
December 17, 2018
Monday forecast: Partly sunny. Any morning fog will mix out. Decent day temperature wise.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 52 to 55 IL ~46 to 52 KY ~ 50 to 54 TN ~ 52 to 55
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 43 to 48
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None unless we have some morning patchy fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 26 to 32 IL ~ 25 to 30 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 28 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 22 to 26
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:30 PM
Moonrise: 1:29 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:22 AM
December 18, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny with a few clouds from time to time. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 46 to 50
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 40 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some morning patchy fog with reduced visibility
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. Some late night clouds. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 28 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 2:00 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 2:22 AM
December 19, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Increasing clouds through the day. An afternoon rain shower possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None AM hours. Scattered PM hours.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Some PM showers could make for damp conditions. There remain some questions as to when the rain showers will arrive.
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southw and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Most likely no
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain will cause issues for outdoor activities.
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 2:35 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 3:26 AM
December 20, 2018
Thursday forecast: Rain likely. Turning colder. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 50 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 40 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Most likely no
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Most likely no, but monitor updates
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Wet conditions will interfere with outdoor activities. Gusty winds will also be an issue.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Rain ending. Rain may end as snow.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 32 to 36 TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 24 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Monitor updates
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Monitor updates
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Monitor updates
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Strong winds. Monitor the snow chances.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes. Damp conditions combined with strong winds will make it feel uncomfortable outside. I am monitor the snow chances, as well.
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 3:15 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 4:32 AM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Wind forecast
Click to enlarge
.
Today: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Saturday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Sunday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Monday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Thursday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook
Click to enlarge.
This represents anticipated additional rain totals.
Some areas could end up with greater than two inches from yesterday through Saturday.
The overall flood risk is low. Most areas will pick up 1.10″ to 1.80″. Locally totals may reach two inches. Some of the common water problem areas could have standing water or ditches full of water.
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Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Friday: No severe weather. A few lightning strikes possible today (Friday).
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- The word of the day is rain.
- Cool temperatures because of clouds and rain.
- Saturday’s rain.
- Dry Sunday into at least Wednesday morning
We had plenty of rain on Thursday and it appears that rain will continue today.
We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Here is the morning water vapor GOES 16 satellite. You are looking at moisture. Notice how the moisture comes out of the Pacific and crosses Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico.
This system has a nice moisture fetch.
Check out eastern Texas. That is the area of low pressure and upper level low. Impressive spin! The GOES 16 satellite is amazing.
Rain will continue into Saturday. The system has slowed a bit.
Here is the 700 mb map. This is several thousand feet aloft. Normally, an area of low pressure would be red in color. I made it blue so you could see it better. The big L is the upper-level low.
Low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. You can see the spin on the satellite above.
The colors represent vorticity. You could think of that as lift. Lifting air. Rising air. Clouds and precipitation.
8 AM dew points
Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. Higher dew points typically mean heavier rain totals. During the summer months we often times have dew points in the 65 to 75-degree range.
During the winter months, the dew point numbers are much lower. A few times we might pop above 60-degree dew points.
Dew points are on the rise. Yesterday, the dew point numbers were lower. Today they are a bit higher. More moisture is streaming into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
8 AM temperatures
We do have widespread clouds this morning. Patchy fog, as well. Spotty showers.
Temperatures won’t move too much today. A few degrees.
Over the past couple of years, I have talked about the increasing number of heavy rain events. Studies have shown that heavy rain events are increasing. Rain totals are increasing. Why? Because warmer air can actually make the water molecules more energized. It is a bit of a misnomer to say that warm air can hold more water vapor. It would be better to explain that water molecules are more active when it is warm.
It is true that our heavier rain events do occur when warm air is present.
Here you go
This is a problem. Cities have built water drainage systems to handle a certain amount of water. If the 100, 500, 1000 year flood numbers have changed then we are going to experience more and more flooding.
Here is an article about the subject. Click here.
Rain showers will continue into Saturday. Some of the rain could be locally moderate to heavy today and tonight. The risk of flash flooding is fairly low.
Some creeks will rise, ditches may overflow their banks, and low land flooding could occur. Areas that commonly flood during prolonged rain events will be the main concern.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Widespread flash flooding is unlikely.
Let’s take a look at a couple of computer model packages.
This first model is the NAM 3K. This takes us into Saturday evening.
The time-stamp is in the upper left portion of this animation.
Click to enlarge the animation.
Green represents rain. Blue is snow. Pink/orange would be an icy mix. This is a rain event locally. The bulk of it falls Thursday afternoon into Friday.
Yellow and orange represent heavier rain showers.
Here is the Hrrr model guidance. This is a high-resolution model.
Periods of showers and even a few thunderstorms for the region today.
Click to enlarge
The time-stamp is in the upper left.
Rain chances will linger into Saturday. The best chance will be during the morning hours. Decreasing chances as we push through the afternoon hours.
For now, it appears we will remain dry Sunday through Wednesday afternoon.
I am watching a disturbance around Wednesday evening/night. I can’t rule out a few showers. It does not, at least for now, appear to be a widespread rain event.
Temperatures next week will be near to above normal.
I am monitoring December 23rd through 26th for some precipitation. Way too early, of course, to know whether it would be rain or snow.
Occasionally, the models show this system. Other times, the models show nothing at all. I will continue to monitor the guidance trends.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Winter Outlook!
These products are for subscribers.
December temperature and precipitation outlook
January temperature outlook
February temperature outlook
Winter snow outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 670
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the former Meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. Gary Szatkowski, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- The difficulty of precipitation-type winter forecasting
- Snowmageddon-type event in New York similar to Atlanta/Birmingham event of 2014
- Figuring out social media as a meteorologist
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
