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Quick Glance

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Your seven-day outlook.

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any significant changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Added fog into tonight’s forecast.

Added spotty showers to the MO/IL forecast tonight.  I already had them for KY/TN.

Yes.  Raised temperatures Sunday night and Monday.

Added thunderstorms to the Sunday night/Monday forecast (Bootheel, KY, TN).

Changed precipitation to rain faster on Sunday PM into Monday.

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What changes might occur in the forecast?

The type of precipitation on Sunday night and Monday.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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The live winter storm blog has been activated.

Link –>  https://weathertalk.com/app/dailysummary

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December 13, 2019
How confident am I that this forecast will verify:  High confidence.
Friday’s Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A few showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50°    SE MO 48° to 50°    South IL 48° to 50°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50°    West KY 48° to 50°    NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
What action is required:  Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
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Friday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Patchy fog.  A few light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~  30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38°    SE MO 33° to 36°    South IL 32° to 34°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°     West KY 34° to 36°    NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Low visibility in areas of fog.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 6:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 8:19 AM

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December 14, 2019
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High confidence.
Saturday’s Forecast: Morning fog will be a possibility.  Intervals of clouds.  A few light showers are possible (AM hours)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50°    SE MO 46° to 48°    South IL 44° to 48°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48°    West KY 46° to 50°    NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Low visibility in areas of fog.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30°    SE MO 23° to 26°    South IL 23° to 26°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 28°    West KY 25° to 30°    NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  Monitor updates.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 7:13 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:17 AM

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December 15, 2019
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium confidence.

Here is the NAM forecast for temperatures on Sunday afternoon around the 5 PM to 9 PM time-frame.

We will need to monitor the potential of icy roadways where temperatures remain at or below freezing.

Click the image to enlarge it.

6 PM

9 PM

**  The storm track is key to this forecast.  Any adjustment in the storm track will change this forecast.  Monitor updates.  I will begin a live snow blog today (just in case some areas have issues.  Mainly our northern counties. **
Sunday’s Forecast:  Increasing clouds through the day.  During the mid to late afternoon hours, there will be patches of freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain developing.  Watch bridges over southeast MO and southern IL (esp our northern counties).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40°     SE MO 31° to 36°    South IL 31° to 36°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36°   West KY 34° to 38°    NW TN 35° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Icy roadways where temperatures are at or below freezing.
What action is required:  Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:03 AM

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Sunday night Forecast: See below.  Confidence in the details is medium.  Some adjustments are likely.  Trends have been warmer temperatures.  If the system is slightly further north then this will mostly be a rain event.

Southern Illinois:  Rising temperatures overnight.  Freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain developing.  Changing to all rain over most if not all of the area.  I will keep an eye on Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Ste. Genevieve and Perry Counties in southeast Missouri and then Jackson, Randolph, Perry, Franklin, Hamilton, White,  and Jefferson Counties in case it remains colder for a longer period of time.  Keep in mind, it only takes a little bit of ice on roadways to cause issues.

Western Kentucky:  Rising temperatures overnight.  Rain developing.  Rain may briefly mix with snow and sleet.  Thunder possible.

Northwest Kentucky:  Rising temperatures overnight.   Including Union, Henderson, Daviess, Webster, and McLean counties: Rain and a wintry mix developing.  Changing to all rain.

Southeast Missouri: (not including Butler, Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties)  Rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow developing. A wintry mix.  The mix changing to all rain overnight.

Southeast Missouri: (Bootheel) Rising temperatures.  Rain developing.  There may be a brief mix of rain, sleet, and snow at the start. No accumulation.

Northwest Tennessee: Rising temperatures.    Showers and thunderstorms developing.

What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 100%   IL ~ 100%   KY ~ 100%   TN ~ 100%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36°    SE MO 28° to 34°    South IL 28° to 34°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 35°    West KY 32° to 34°    NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed:  10 to 20 mph winds.  Winds will vary based on where the boundary sets up.  Southerly winds south of the boundary.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor the chance of icy bridges and roads if snow develops (mainly early in the night).  Temperatures will rise overnight.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 8:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:07 AM

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December 16, 2019
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium confidence.
Monday’s Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain likely. A thunderstorm is also possible.  Rain may end as snow showers.  A wide range of temperatures depending on the track of the low-pressure center.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42°     SE MO 35° to 42°    South IL 35° to 40°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42°   West KY 38° to 44°    NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind depending on the location of the front.  Wind gusts up to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
What action is required:  Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Yes.  Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%   IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 30°    SE MO 23° to 26°    South IL 23° to 26°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28°    West KY 24° to 28°    NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed:  North at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor
What action is required:  Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  Monitor updates.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 9:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:51 AM

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December 17, 2019
How confident am I that this forecast will verify:  High confidence.
Tuesday’s Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40°     SE MO 34° to 38°    South IL 34° to 38°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38°   West KY 35° to 40°    NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%   IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 20° to 24°    SE MO 16° to 24°    South IL  16° to 22°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 24°    West KY 20° to 25°    NW TN 20° to 25°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 10:38 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:31 AM

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December 18, 2019
How confident am I that this forecast will verify:  High confidence.
Wednesday’s Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42°     SE MO 35° to 40°    South IL 35° to 40°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40°   West KY 35° to 40°    NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%   IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28°    SE MO 23° to 26°    South IL  23° to 26°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26°    West KY 23° to 26°    NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 11:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:05 AM

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December 19, 2019
How confident am I that this forecast will verify:  High confidence.
Thursday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50°     SE MO 45° to 50°    South IL 45° to 50°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50°   West KY 45° to 50°    NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%   IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30°    SE MO 24° to 28°    South IL  24° to 28°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28°    West KY 24° to 28°    NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter
Moonset: 12:37 AM

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December 20, 2019
How confident am I that this forecast will verify:  Low confidence.
Friday’s Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50°     SE MO 45° to 50°    South IL 45° to 50°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50°   West KY 45° to 50°    NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
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Friday night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%   IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30°    SE MO 24° to 28°    South IL  24° to 28°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28°    West KY 24° to 28°    NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:40 PM
Moonrise: 12:54 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:09 PM

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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

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Wind forecast

Click to enlarge

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School Bus Stop Forecast

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1.  Mostly calm weather today into Sunday morning.  Some light rain showers over Kentucky and Tennessee.  Trace amounts of rain.
2.  Rain and a wintry mix Sunday afternoon into Monday.

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Precipitation dates to monitor.

These are dates that may have precipitation.  Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is very low confidence. Do not make plans based on this forecast.

The icon can mean rain or snow.

Click to enlarge these graphics.

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Friday through next Thursday:  No severe thunderstorms.  Lightning is possible Sunday night and Monday from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky/Tennessee.

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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1.   Light rain possible Friday night/Saturday.  Rain totals of 0.00 to 0.10″.
2.   The main story is the system on Sunday afternoon and Monday.
3.   Widespread rain Sunday PM into Monday.  It may begin as a wintry mix and then change to rain (mainly our northern counties).  May end as snow showers.

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Weather
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Advice:

Monitor updated forecasts concerning rain and snow this weekend.  The main concern will be Sunday evening into Monday morning

I will keep an eye on Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Ste. Genevieve and Perry Counties in southeast Missouri and then Jackson, Randolph, Perry, Franklin, Hamilton, White,  and Jefferson Counties in case it remains colder for a longer period of time.

Keep in mind, it only takes a little bit of ice on roadways to cause issues

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Weather Forecast Analysis

What I know:  

Widespread precipitation will develop late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Temperatures should start out cool enough for a wintry mix over at least our northern counties.   All areas should change to rain.  There could be some impacts at the beginning of the system.

I will need to closely monitor the position of the area of low pressure.  If it tracks further south then we would have more ice and snow.  Further north and this is 99% rain.  Monitor updates.

I have been trending warmer with each passing day of this forecast.

What I don’t know:

How quickly precipitation changes to rain over our northern counties.

I will keep an eye on Ste. Genevieve and Perry Counties in southeast Missouri and then Jackson, Randolph, Perry, Franklin, Hamilton, White,  and Jefferson Counties in case it remains colder for a longer period of time.

What will the impact be if we do have snow or a wintry mix?

I am leaning towards mostly a rain event.  At the beginning of the event, there will likely be a wintry mix over at least our northern counties.

There is a reason we can’t forecast snow totals days in advance.  Usually, it comes down to the last 48 hours before confidence truly increases.

Click to enlarge.

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Forecast discussion:

Click to enlarge.

Calm weather today with some clouds.

We will have clouds and fog tonight into Saturday morning.  Dense fog is possible.  Light rain will develop, as well.  Scattered.  Not widespread.

There will likely be areas of drizzle tonight and Saturday morning.

Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast radar for late tonight into Saturday morning.  This is likely a bit overdone.

Some spotty showers in the region.

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A larger system develops on Sunday afternoon and that takes us into Monday.

So far, I have been satisfied with the forecast that I have been posting over the last few days.

I like to get within 48 hours of a winter weather event before posting numbers.  I felt confident enough to post a forecast yesterday.  That was a wintry mix changing to rain with some impacts over at least our northern counties.  I continue to adjust that forecast today.

The big question with this system has been the precipitation type.  Typical, in our region.  We always seem to be in the rain and snow line zone.

Rain and snow/wintry mix will likely develop Sunday afternoon and night across our region.  That rain and snow will continue into Monday.

I have been trending warmer with my forecast with each passing day.  That continues to push the icy impacts further north.

There remain questions on the exact track of the area of low pressure.  A shift of 30 to 50 miles would change the forecast and pull the snow/ice further south.  A shift north and my forecast counties have little or no impact.  Keep that in mind.  This system is still three days away.  It is just now being fully sampled by the upper-air data support systems.  In theory, that means the model guidance should trend towards a final solution.

I have made my forecast (yesterday) and adjusted it a bit more today.  You can read that at the top of the page.

There will likely be a wintry mix at the start of this event.  As warmer air pushes northward, the frozen will turn to all plain rain.

The depth of the cold air determines what TYPE of precipitation falls.

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Those with travel plans on Sunday afternoon into Monday should closely monitor updated forecasts.  There may be icy roadways over at least portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

It would take a major shift southward for the rest of our region to experience much in the way of icy roadways.

The precipitation will continue into Monday.  The cold front will bring colder air into the region by Monday afternoon and night.  That will change the rain to snow showers.  Little or no accumulation is currently anticipated.  Monitor updates in case the system is stronger/deeper than currently forecast.

Here is what the GFS is showing for snow totals.

Click on the images to enlarge them.

and

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SHORT and LONG RANGE SNOW OUTLOOK:

I am monitoring a couple of systems in the long-range.  One next weekend and one or two the week of Christmas.

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Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

 

Click words to enlarge (here and below)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange are above average. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue is below average. Green to purple is much below average.

This outlook covers December 13th through December 19th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 20th through December 26th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 24 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.90″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers December 27th through January 9th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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December

Click on the image to expand it.

January

February

March

 

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BAMwx has released its winter forecast. Keep in mind, what you really want to know is not covered in a general winter outlook. What you want to know is how much snow or ice will fall. That is not possible to predict.

The best long-range forecasters can do is to tell you above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

This initial winter outlook indicates odds favor above-normal temperatures when everything is averaged out from November into March. That does not mean we won’t have cold weather. It just means when you average all of those months together we could end up above normal.

They indicate above-normal snowfall, as well.

Winter analogs. BAMwx found years that have a pattern similar to what we are currently experiencing. Those are called analogs. We can compare previous years with the present.

Their analogs indicate colder than normal across portions of the central and northern United States. They indicate above normal temperatures along the West Coast south and east into Texas.

Blue and purple are below normal (bright green, as well). Yellow and orange are above normal.

Winter Temperature Outlook

Winter Precipitation

Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge.

Looking back at last year. None of the models handled last year all that well.

Upper air pattern.

Here is the BAMwx temperature forecast. This covers all of winter. They have us in the above normal temperature zone. Near normal just to our north. For now, they have this marked as a low confidence forecast.

Additional winter forecasts will be posted over the next couple of months. This is the preliminary outlook.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.