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HOLIDAY EDITION.
The value added graphics, videos, and more will return on Wednesday morning.
December 24, 2018
Christmas Eve
Monday forecast: Patchy morning freezing fog. Mostly sunny AM hours. Some increase in clouds during the PM hours. Mild for late December. Nice Christmas Eve weather.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~46 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Early in the morning patchy slick spots where the fog is thickest. Freezing fog.
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy morning freezing fog could cause icy bridges.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No, but use care early in the AM hours because of patchy slick spots from the thick fog.
UV Index: 3 Medium
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Christmas Eve
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A fast moving weak system will push into the region. A few rain showers mixed with snow are possible late tonight. Light with no accumulation anticipated.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 38 to 42
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly late)
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Most likely no
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? The rain could mix with snow or change to a snow shower. No accumulation.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Not before midnight. Some wet roadways and damp conditions late at night. Most people will be asleep.
Sunset: 4:42 PM
Moonrise: 7:08 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:52 AM
December 25, 2018
Christmas
Tuesday forecast: Morning clouds. Scattered rain or rain/snow showers. No accumulation or impacts. Temperatures will remain above freezing. A mix of sun and clouds possible after 3 PM. More clouds than anything.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered before 12 PM
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Some snowflakes in the air can’t be ruled out early Tuesday morning. No accumulation if it occurs at all.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars before 12 PM
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? A few showers could cause damp conditions. Many areas should remain dry.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Christmas Night
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Cool. An isolated late-night shower possible near Poplar Bluff, Missouri into the Missouri Bootheel.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated in the Bootheel of Missouri.
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no.
Sunset: 4:43 PM
Moonrise: 8:19 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:44 AM
December 26, 2018
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild for the end of December. Becoming breezy. A few showers possible (more so after 12 PM)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 54 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 55 to 60
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (mainly PM hours)
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? For most areas, no. A few showers could produce damp conditions. Rain chances increase Wednesday night.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Rain showers developing. Temperatures steady or rising. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Increasing coverage overnight.
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Don’t cancel outdoor plans but monitor radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could cause damp conditions. This may interfere with some activities.
Sunset: 4:43 PM
Moonrise: 9:30 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:28 AM
December 27, 2018
Thursday Forecast: Windy. Cloudy. Rain. A thunderstorm possible. Mild. Moderate rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Is flash flooding anticipated? Low risk
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 20 to 40 mph. Gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Is severe weather expected? There is a small risk of a severe thunderstorm. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could cause wet conditions for outdoor activities. Windy conditions will also be an issue for high profile vehicles and hunters.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy before 12 AM. Showers and possible thunderstorms. The rain will end west to east through the evening and overnight hours. Strong and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 35 to 45
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread early and then becoming less and less coverage as we move through the night.
Is flash flooding anticipated? Low risk
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Wind becoming southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
Is severe weather expected? There is a low-end risk of a severe thunderstorm during the evening hours.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could cause damp conditions. Gusty wind conditions could also be an issue for some.
Sunset: 4:44PM
Moonrise: 10:35 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:08 AM
December 28, 2018
Friday Forecast: Cloudy early. Becoming partly cloudy. Not as mild as it was on Thursday. Rain should have come to an end.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Precipitation should have ended. I will monitor the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky in case a few showers remain before 9 AM.
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west and northwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? It may be damp because of the Thursday and Thursday night rain event. Otherwise, no other impacts.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 32 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 30 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 22 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the risk of fog. Lower visibility in areas with fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Fog could cause some issues late at night. If temperatures are cold enough then a few slick spots could form on roadways.
Sunset: 4:45 PM
Moonrise: 11:46 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:43 AM
December 29, 2018
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 42 to 46
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Early morning fog could lower visibility.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Chilly conditions may make it uncomfortable for those outdoors. Typical December cold.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A fast-moving system will produce some clouds Saturday night and Sunday. This system may push through the region dry. I am monitoring the rain chances. A few clouds. A slight chance of a rain or rain/snow shower. Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 28 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 32 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 30 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 24 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Small chance
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to a few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no but monitor updates.
Sunset: 4:45 PM
Moonrise: 11:56 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:15 PM
December 30, 2018
Sunday Forecast: A fast-moving system will produce some clouds Saturday night and Sunday. This system may push through the region dry. I am monitoring the rain chances. Morning clouds. A slight chance of rain or rain/snow showers. Clearing. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 42 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 42 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Small chance
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west at 6 to 12 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to a few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear early. A few overnight clouds. Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 34 IL ~ 28 to 32 KY ~ 28 to 34 TN ~ 30 to 34
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 20 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor the risk of fog. Lower visibility in areas with fog.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:46 PM
Moonrise: 12:46 AM Last Quarter
Moonset: 12:47 PM
Monday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated. Late Monday night a light rain shower is possible. I can’t rule out a snowflake, but it seems unlikely based on temperatures.
Tuesday: An early morning rain/snow shower mix is possible. No travel concerns. No accumulation. It will warm well above freezing on Christmas Day.
Wednesday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Thursday: Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.
Click to enlarge graphics on the blog.
Some spotty light rain showers are possible tonight. Nothing significant.
Our next rain event will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Some locally heavy downpours are possible.
Here are the WPC rain forecast numbers. Some of these may need to be increased.
Another widespread rain event will arrive early next week. That is not included in the graphic.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through next Wednesday night: No severe weather concerns.
Wednesday night through Thursday night: A few thunderstorms are possible. This would mainly be Thursday late morning into Thursday evening. The overall severe weather risk appears low. Monitor updates. Lightning will be possible. There is a strong low-level jet. If thunderstorms do form then they could produce gusty winds.
Low-level jet will top 60 knots by Thursday. Those winds are about 5000′ aloft. Sometimes thunderstorms can tap into these low-level jet winds.
This is the 850 mb wind map. Again, that is about 5000′ aloft. Strong winds with the low level jet.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Holiday updates
- Widespread rain event by Wednesday night into Thursday night.
- A few thunderstorms possible.
- Another widespread rain event around New Year’s Eve.
Free abbreviated blog update today. Videos, value added graphics, and more will return on Wednesday morning.
A hope everyone is having a nice holiday weekend and week. I want to wish all of you a Merry Christmas.
We do have some weather systems to track. For those wanting snow, you will likely have to wait.
We do have a weak fast moving system that will push through the region late tonight into Christmas morning. This will help spread some clouds into the region. A few rain or rain/snow showers will also be possible. Temperatures will remain above freezing. That means there won’t be any travel concerns (outside of some wet roadways).
The bigger weather story will be a large storm system that will develop Wednesday and Wednesday night. This system will produce widespread rain and gusty winds.
The low-pressure center will stay to our north and northwest. That places us in the warm sector. That will mean a chance of thunderstorms.
Blizzard conditions are possible well to our north and northwest. If you have travel plains into Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin then you will want to check the latest local forecast and road conditions.
Here is the system on the GFS model.
Green and yellow would be rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Red is heavy rain.
Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavy snow. Pink would be a wintry mix.
TIGHT pressure gradient. That will mean strong and gusty winds. Winds may top 40 mph in our region Thursday into Thursday night.
A wind alert may be necessary.
Click to enlarge.
The rain should end by Friday morning.
A weak system could produce light rain or rain/snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. For now, this does not look to be a big deal. It may remain dry. I will monitor trends.
Another large system may bring additional rain into the region by New Year’s Eve.
Here is what that looks like on the GFS.
Click to enlarge.
What about colder weather?
There are signals for colder air as we push into January. One would expect this.
Whether or not this cold air will tap into any moisture is the bigger question. We should have cold air to work with.
Those wanting snow will need to be patient.
Click to enlarge.
Red represents above normal temperatures. Dark red represents well above normal temperatures.
Blue represents below normal. Purple and pink would be well below normal temperatures.
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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 674
Tonight’s Guest Panelist is a meteorologist recently retired as MIC from the NWS Birmingham. Jim Stefkovitch, welcome to the show!
Our second Guest Panelist is the MIC of the NWS in Atlanta. Keith Stellman, welcome to the show!
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Professional of Sociology at Northwestern University. His PhD is from Harvard, and he has received numerous fellowships. In fact, he is probably the smartest person we have ever had on the show. Dr. Gary Alan Fine, welcome to WeatherBrains.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- TV meteorologist tragically lost to suicide
- The role of politics in the day-to-day operations of the NWS
- Upcoming 5th anniversary of “Snowmageddon”
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
