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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday night – Some patchy fog again possible. Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild. Not too bad for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% over northern counties
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Perhaps some morning fog. Quite warm and humid. Some clouds possible with a 20%-30% chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over our northern counties. They will then slide south and east. Most areas will remain dry. A few areas will have a downpour. Best chances over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. Questions on high temperatures. If thunderstorms form or there is a cloud shield from any storms on Saturday night to our north then temperatures would be impacted. Keep this in mind.
Winds: Mainly south and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps gusts to 15 mph in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay over most of the area. Small storm chances in the afternoon.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Heat index values might be quite high on Sunday. Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Sunday night – Some clouds. A 20%-30% chance at any given spot for a thunderstorm during the evening and a 40%-60% late at night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Some gusts to 15 mph. Winds will mainly be out of the southwest.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% early and then increasing chances through the night
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly cloudy. A 40%-60% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest late. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Monday night – Some clouds. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case there are a few storms.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Cooler. Less humid. Only a slight chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Below normal temperatures. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and nice. Pleasant weather for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – A few clouds. Nice weather for August, once again.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly sunny. Again, nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A hot Sunday where clouds don’t interfere
2. Watching a system towards late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night/Monday.
3. An AMAZING stretch of weather unfolding for next week and maybe beyond.
Saturday was warm across the region. Morning fog was dense in a few locations. But, mixed out soon after sunrise.
Sunday will bring more of the same. Some morning patchy fog again possible. But, then we should see a mix of sun and clouds. A few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible.
I suppose one story for Sunday will be the warm temperatures. But, cloud cover could keep parts of the region in the 80’s. That is a big question mark. It appears the best chance for the highest temperature readings will be over southeast Missouri. A bit closer to the southwest heat ridge.
However, with that said…if the sun does stay out quite awhile then all areas will warm into the 90’s High dew points mean high heat index numbers. Expect heat index numbers to top 100 degrees where the sun remains out.
A disturbance and cold front moving in from the northwest and north will bring at least a chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the region. Many areas will remain dry.
Better chances for a few thunderstorms will arrive later on Sunday night into Monday. A complex of storms may form to our west and north. This complex would shift south and east. If so then rain chances would increase quite a bit late Sunday night into Monday morning. Locally heavy rain would also be possible. These overnight storms can drop a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Not quite sure if everyone will experience rain. But, decent chances appear in the cards.
Here is the GFS model’s take on precipitation. Green represents rain. This is for Monday morning and the second image is for Monday night. Images are from Weatherbell.com
Cold front and very nice weather ahead of us!
Expect lower humidity levels and lower temperatures for Tuesday through at least Friday and perhaps beyond. I would call this amazing weather (Tuesday through next weekend). Not normal weather for August. A taste of September? Perhaps. I can’t rule out some overnight lows in the 50’s across portions of our region.
I believe you are going to love the weather from Tuesday onward.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The rest of August?
An extended period of dry weather is forecast for most of the new work week into part of the following week. At one time it appeared another disturbance would move into the region on Friday. But, the data has backed away from that idea.
I see a lot of nice weather ahead of us. Stunning, for August! 🙂 Cheers?
If you missed yesterdays update then you missed some thoughts on the rest of August.
I will post it again…
Remember that my August forecast was for normal to above normal precipitation and normal to below normal temperatures. My forecast was for more below normal temperatures days than above normal temperature days. So far it has been warm. But, we still have time for my predictions to work out. As always, we shall see!!!
The rest of August?
Check out these 5 day average temperature maps for August. This is how much above or below normal temperatures might be. The blue indicates below normal temperatures.
My August forecast has been that we would have more below normal temperature days than above normal. So far there have been several above normal temperature days. I need a stretch of below normal. GFS says we will receive just that! As always, we shall see.
One point that has messed up my summer forecast has been overnight lows. They have been warmed than normal. Do you know why? Because of all the rain. Wet ground conditions usually mean warmer overnight lows. This has skewed my forecast for more below normal temperature days in July. We had about 50% of the days below normal. We would have had more. But, overnight lows messed that up. My forecast was for a wet summer. I think we have achieved that!
The models are moving more and more towards my thoughts for August, but will they verify. That is always the question.
Images are from weatherbell.com
This first image is for August 7th through the 12th
This second image is for August 12th through the 17th
And this last image is for August 17th through August 22nd
If those maps are correct then much of August will deliver decent temperatures. We can hope.
And with that we can say
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Our next storm system arrives on Sunday afternoon into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with a cold front dipping southward into our region. The main time frame for rain might be Sunday night and Monday. Sunday afternoon…some storms will be possible, as well. Very scattered.
There could be some pockets of heavy downpours with thunderstorms. Widespread heavy rain is currently not in the forecast. As always, monitor updates.
Rainfall totals of 0.25″-0.50″ could occur with the front. Locally heavier totals in storms.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night/Monday.
Sunday: A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mainly over southern Illinois and Indiana. But, will need to keep an eye on the trends.
Monday: A chance for a few thunderstorms
Tuesday: Not expecting storms
Wednesday: Not expecting storms
Thursday: Not expecting storms
Friday: Not expecting storms
Saturday: Not expecting storms
Sunday: Not expecting storms
Can’t rule out some thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and night. Another cold front will be dipping southward into our region. The front will be accompanied by some showers and storms.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
