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August 8, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy downpours where thunderstorms develop.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% (except Bootheel where the chance is 60%) IL ~ 30% to 40% KY ~ 50%-60% TN ~ 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (greatest coverage from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and western Tennessee)
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Locally heavy rain where storms occur. Gusty wind near thunderstorms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Isolated high wind possible with thunderstorms
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars. Showers and storms are a possibility
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Patchy dense fog. Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in west Kentucky and west Tennessee. A few storms possible in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, as well. The bulk of the chances will be before 10 pm. Locally heavy rain with thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 68 IL ~ 66 to 68 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered (esp KY/TN)
Wind: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms. Low visibility in fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. I can’t rule out a strong storm or two with gusty winds (Bootheel into and along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line)
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars
Sunset: 7:54 PM
Moonrise: 2:52 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 7:54 PM
August 9, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning dense fog possible. A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Widely scattered thunderstorms. Greater chances from the Bootheel into and along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms. Lower visibility where fog occurs.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radar
UV Index: 6 to 8 Moderate to high
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated evening thunderstorm. Most areas will be dry. Patchy dense fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 68 IL ~ 66 to 68 KY ~ 66 to 68 TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% to 20% IL ~ 10% to 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roads and lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms. Lower visibility where fog occurs.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars
Sunset: 7:53 PM
Moonrise: 3:54 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 6:40 PM
August 10, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Patchy dense morning fog. A mix of sun and clouds. Isolated thunderstorms. Warm. Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms. Lower visibility where fog occurs.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radar
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible (mainly early)
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70 IL ~ 66 to 68 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: South and southeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars
Sunset: 7:52 PM
Moonrise: 5:02 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 7:33 PM
August 11, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Warm. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: West and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% to 30% IL ~ 20% to 30% KY ~ 20% to 30% TN ~ 20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars
Sunset: 7:51 PM
Moonrise: 6:14 AM New Moon
Moonset: 8:21 PM
August 12, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Warm. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and warm. An isolated evening thunderstorm is possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70 IL ~66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roads. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
Sunset: 7:50 PM
Moonrise: 7:27 AM New Moon
Moonset: 9:02 PM
Again, hopefully the digital media blog will be up and running again by tomorrow. Websites are forcing us to move to the Https URL’s. This helps keep websites secure.
Latest Weather Analysis:
Feast or famine weather has returned. Some places received over 3.5″ of rain Tuesday. Other locations received no rain at all. That seems to be the normal around our region during the summer months.
We will have plenty of clouds today. A cold front will become stationary or wash out over our southern counties. This means a few showers and thunderstorms will once again dot radar.
The greatest chance of rain today will be across the southern half of the region. That would include areas along and south of a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri, to Cairo, Illinois, and then towards Muhlenburg, Kentucky.
Areas along and south of that line will experience some locally heavy rain today. Thunderstorms could easily drop an inch of rain in less than thirty minutes. This could cause ponding on roadways and ditches to briefly overflow.
North of that line will experience lesser rain chances. Not zero chances.
Here is the Hrrr high resolution model guidance future-cast radar. Time-stamp upper left. You can see some storms forming in the region.
Keep in mind, this is just a model. It won’t be perfect. Just take the general idea from it.
The front will either wash out or become negligible by Thursday and Friday. There will still be scattered showers and thunderstorms dotting radar into Sunday.
I lowered the percentage probabilities a bit (esp Friday into Sunday).
If you have outdoor plans this weekend then I would not change any of them. I would just check radars from time to time. If storms do form, they could be locally strong.
Many of us still need rain. I received less than 0.40″ yesterday. Rain deficits, over the last 60 days, have been high enough for some areas to experience light drought conditions.
Ohio Valley video update from the video team.
