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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Scattered Saturday and Sunday. A bit higher chances Monday into Wednesday. I will need to monitor past Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Possible. Monday through Friday of next week.
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August 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A few more clouds approaching from the west.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a thunderstorm near Poplar Bluff, Missouri northward to St Louis.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:27 PM
Moonset: 9:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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August 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible over mainly southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 90° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: A few clouds. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 68° to 70° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southerly winds 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous over portions of the area
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 10:52 PM
Moonset: 10:43 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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August 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Warm. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:18 PM
Moonset: 11:39 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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August 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot. Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:45 PM
Moonset: 12:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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August 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 1:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter
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August 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 8 to 9. High.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:15 AM
Moonset: 2:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:50 AM
Moonset: 3:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
Moonset: 4:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Warming trend. Hot Saturday and Sunday.
- A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms over the coming week.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through August 12th: Severe weather is unlikely.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated August 7, 2020
No major concerns. I will keep an eye on the Friday to Sunday forecast for an uptick in thunderstorm chances. Heat returns then, as well.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Warming trend begins.
- A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
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A change in the weather is underway. We had a nice run with lower temperatures. That is about to change. We knew it couldn’t last.
Warmer and more humid air is beginning to stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico. You will begin to feel the difference over the weekend.
Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday and Sunday highs will pop to around 90 degrees.
We should remain dry today. A few more clouds.
A complex of thunderstorms will form to our north and west tonight. This will attempt to push into our region by Saturday morning.
It will die off before bringing measurable rain to most of our area.
I will need to monitor the far western part of southeast Missouri and towards Randolph County, Illinois.
Otherwise, it will deliver some clouds into the region tomorrow.
By Saturday night and Sunday, a warm front will begin to push into the region. This front will then become the focus of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday night.
Many areas may remain dry. A few will pick up a quick downpour of rain. Lightning, of course.
Severe weather is not anticipated. I also would not cancel any weekend plans. I would suggest monitoring the radars.
Next week appears to be summer-like. Widespread upper 80s to middle 90s for highs. Overnight lows around 70 degrees. Heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100’s.
It will feel like August.
We will have at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms next week. That is especially true during the heat of the day (afternoon and evening hours).
I will also be monitoring the possibility of a complex of thunderstorms Saturday night moving in from central Illinois.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 7th through August 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 0.10″
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This outlook covers August 13th through August 19th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.70″
This outlook covers August 21st through September 3rd
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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