Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 5, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Low end chances Friday into Sunday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  Possible.  Saturday and Sunday will be hot and muggy.

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August 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Wednesday Forecast
: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°    SE MO 76° to  82°    South IL  76° to 82°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 82°    West KY 76° to 82°    NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Sunset: 7:58 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62°     MO  56° to 60°     South IL  56° to 60°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60°    West KY 58° to 62°     NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 PM
Moonset:  7:48 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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August 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°    SE MO 80° to  84°    South IL  80° to 84°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82°    West KY 80° to 84°    NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation:   None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:57 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear early.  A few late night clouds approaching from the west.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62°     MO  58° to 62°     South IL  58° to 62°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62°    West KY 58° to 62°     NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:02 PM
Moonset:  8:48 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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I will be monitoring the weekend for an uptick in thunderstorm chances.  For now, I kept chances low.  This may need updating.

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August 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A few more clouds approaching from the west.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86°    SE MO 82° to  85°    South IL  82° to 85°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 84°    West KY 82° to 85°    NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  A few clouds.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Primarily over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~  10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70°     MO  65° to 70°     South IL  65° to 70°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 68°    West KY 66° to 68°     NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.  Primarily over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:27 PM
Moonset:  9:47 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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August 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Partly sunny. An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm.  Warmer.  More humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 90°    SE MO 86° to  88°    South IL  86° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:55 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  A few clouds.  Patchy fog.  A shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72°     MO  68° to 70°     South IL  68° to 72°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72°    West KY 68° to 72°     NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed:  Southerly winds 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 10:52 PM
Moonset:  10:43 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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August 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90°    SE MO 86° to  88°    South IL  86° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:54 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:18 PM
Moonset:  11:39 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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August 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Monday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92°    SE MO 88° to  90°    South IL  88° to 92°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92°    West KY 88° to 92°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:45 PM
Moonset:  12:36 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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August 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Tuesday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92°    SE MO 88° to  90°    South IL  88° to 92°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92°    West KY 88° to 92°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of isolated thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74°     MO  70° to 74°     South IL  70° to 74°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°     NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset:  1:33 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last quarter

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  A few storms today and this evening.  Small chances Tuesday.  Another chance by the weekend.
  2.  Below normal temperatures.  Decent for August.
  3.  Warmer by Saturday and Sunday.  More humid then, as well.

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Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See the detailed forecast above for each area.

Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through August 10th: Severe weather is unlikely.

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated August 5, 2020

No major concerns.  I will keep an eye on the Friday to Sunday forecast for an uptick in thunderstorm chances.  Heat returns then, as well.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.   Below normal temperatures!  Nice for August.
    2.   Hotter by the weekend.  A few storms over the weekend, as well.

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Quiet weather today through Friday.

It will be hotter by the weekend with at least scattered thunderstorms.  That would mainly be Saturday into Sunday.

 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 


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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  August 5th through August 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 0.10″
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This outlook covers  August 12th through August 18th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.70″

This outlook covers August 18th through August 31st

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

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Summer outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

June through August

Temperature departures

 

Precipitation

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August temperature departures

Click on the images to enlarge them

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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