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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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August 5, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:56 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 8:48 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:40 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Friday Night -Increasingly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds west, but becoming northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce high winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 6, 2016
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible. A cold front will be moving through our area.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range. Heat index above 95 degrees. Temperatures on Saturday will be dependent on cloud cover.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming northerly behind the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce isolated reports of strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:55 p.m.
UV index will be 7-10. Moderate to high, depending on cloud cover. If we have more clouds on Saturday then this number would need to be lowered.
Moonrise will be at 9:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:11 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Saturday Night – A few clouds. Thunderstorms should be ending.
What impact is expected? Lightning with any storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming northerly.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% over our southern and southwestern counties.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 7, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Very small chance for a storm over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-88 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Winds variable at times in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:57 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small chance for an isolated storms over southeast Missouri.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 8, 2016
Monday – Quite a bit of sun. Warm. Isolated thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:53 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 11:37 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 9, 2016
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-92 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:52 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 12:31 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:47 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
More information on the UV index. Click here.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Showers and thunderstorms along a cold front
- Front pushes southward on Saturday into Sunday
- Front returns northwards Sunday night and Monday
A cold front is moving through the region. This front will be responsible for producing scattered showers and thunderstorms into Saturday. The front will push south of our area on Saturday night and Sunday.
You can see the front here on Saturday and the second image is for Sunday. You can see how the front pushes southward with time.
Sunday map (below)
Thunderstorm chances will push southward on Saturday night and Sunday. I can’t completely rule out storms continuing from Poplar Bluff, Missouri southeast into the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Areas to the north and east of there might stay mostly rain free Saturday night and Sunday. Southwest Kentucky will be on the line. We will need to monitor radars in that area.
The front moves back to our north on Sunday night and Monday morning. A few thunderstorms might develop as it moves north and northeast.
Next week is shaping up to be quite warm and muggy. With the front to our north that will mean higher dew points returning. Higher dew points will mean muggy air. There will be at least a daily chance for heat of the day summer type thunderstorms. I will be monitor for any weak disturbances moving through the upper level flow. Occasionally these can spark thunderstorm complexes. If that were to occur then rain probabilities would need to be increased.
A stronger system could approach our region between August 13th and 16th. The dates are still in flux. That is beyond the normal time period for forecasting. The ideas is in the charts. We should also keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico over the next 6-12 days. Some hints at tropical development.
You can see that tropical event on the EC rainfall maps. These are 12 hour rainfall totals around the 13th of August. See the big chunk of moisture coming into the southeast United States? Long shot, but worth monitoring.
How much rain is forecast over the coming days? This map is through Tuesday. This is broad-brushed outlook.
Keep in mind that locally heavy storms can drop 1-3″ in an hour. Thus, these totals will vary greatly. This is a broad-brushed map
Some places may end up with no rain at all.
Saturday morning low temperature map (temperatures over the coming days will vary based on clouds)
Click images for a larger view
Saturday high temperature forecast (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Sunday morning low temperature map
Sunday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Monday morning lows
Monday afternoon highs
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night: A few storms will be possible. Some of the storms could produce strong winds.
Saturday: A few storms are possible. Some storms could produce gusty winds.
Saturday night and Sunday: Storms ending from north to south on Saturday night. Lightning and gusty winds are the main concern. Heavy downpours. On Sunday our rain chances should be confined to the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. It might even remain dry there, as well.
Sunday night and Monday: Perhaps an isolated storm over far southern parts of Missouri and western Tennessee. Most areas should remain dry. Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
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No major changes in this forecast package.
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Main concern will be heavy rain and gusty winds in thunderstorms.
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Avoid flooded roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. This can lead to flash flooding.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
