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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. A 40%-50% chance for a thunderstorm. Some storms could produce torrential downpours and gusty winds. Flash flooding possible in the area that picks up the heaviest rain.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Northwest at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium on there being heavy rain in the region. Confidence is low when it comes to the placement of that heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars as some storms are occurring.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday – Partly sunny. A 70% chance for thunderstorms. Warm and humid. Heavy rain possible. Flash flooding possible in the area that picks up the heaviest rain.
Temperatures: Highs in the 70’s over most counties.
Winds: Northeast becoming south/southeast at 10-15 mph. Stronger winds near storms. Winds will vary over the region because of the placement of the front. South of the front you can expect more of the southerly winds. Keep that in mind.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium/high on there being heavy rain in the region. Confidence is low when it comes to the placement of that heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Storms will be possible. Could cause issues with outdoor plans.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. A 60%-70% chance for thunderstorms. Locally very heavy rain possible in some areas. Flash flooding possible in the area that picks up the heaviest rain.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph. Winds will vary a bit in direction because of the stationary front over the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium/high on there being heavy rain in the region. Confidence is low when it comes to the placement of that heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Could be some issues with rain. Monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Thursday – A good chance for thunderstorms in the morning. Locally heavy rain possible. A chance for a few scattered storms in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: Southwest at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming more west/northwest during the afternoon hours at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% in the morning and 30% in the afternoon
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. A 20% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph. With the front nearby winds will shift around a bit. South winds south of the front and northerly winds north of the front.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Could be some issues with rain. Monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. A 30% chance for a thunderstorm in the area.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: Southeast at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay. A couple of storms possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Friday night – A chance for an evening thunderstorm. Otherwise, partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North at 5 mph. Calm winds at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps a few evening storms. Most areas should be okay.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Mild. Not too bad for an August day.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild. Not too bad for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Locally heavy rain possible on Wednesday and especially Wednesday night
2. Scattered storms possible Thursday and Friday
The main concern for Tuesday night into Thursday will be the stalled out frontal boundary draped across our region. This frontal boundary should be the focus of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be very heavy. Most people won’t see the huge rainfall totals. But, some will pick up 2-4″ of rain with locally greater totals. This will or could cause flash flooding in a few counties.
Most areas between now and Friday should pick up 0.50″-1.50″ of rain.
As always, location of the front and the track of the disturbance will be key to who ends up with the big rainfall totals. That normally is a now-cast event. Now-cast means a short term forecast (6-12 hours out).
I drew a line a few days ago from Piedmont, MO to Vienna, IL to Madisonville, KY. There northward would have the biggest rain totals. We will see how that goes. Certainly south of there could have very heavy rainfall totals, as well.
It only takes a couple of slow moving storms to cause major flash flooding problems. As always, monitor radars if you have concerns. Someone could be smacked fairly hard by this event. Isolated areas, perhaps. But, hit hard where it happens.
Current watches and warnings (click map for details)
The severe weather threat is small over the coming days, but not zero. A few storms could produce down bursts or damaging winds. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Models are all over the place for Thursday and Friday. The front should remain near our region. Perhaps scattered thunderstorms will be in the forecast right on through Friday afternoon. The current thinking is that Friday night will be dry.
Saturday and Sunday details…see below.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Questionable weekend forecast
At one point the models were showing a very nice weekend ahead of us. Cooler temperatures and less humidity. This would occur behind the front that is stalled out over our region. But, that does not appear to be where the models are heading.
Most of the data actually warms our region up over the coming weekend. Although there are still mixed signals.
There is also a signal for at least scattered thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. The EC model even brings in a MCS (thunderstorm complex) on Sunday afternoon. If that were to happen then locally heavy rain would be possible.
Very low confidence in the extended forecast.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Once again a complicated rainfall setup is taking shape for the region. If you remember the hit and miss heavy rain in July then you will know what to expect this week.
Location, location, location. The location of the stalled cold front will be key to who ends up with heavy rain. Rainfall totals of 2-4″ will be possible this week in some of our local counties. Each disturbance moving along the front will need to be monitored. Heavy rain is likely in some counties as each wave moves along the front.
Some spots could exceed 4-6 inches of rain this week. That could occur if training sets up. Training is when storms move over the same area repeatedly. We had this in July. It can produce very heavy rainfall totals in short periods of time.
Flash flooding is a concern with a pattern like this. You will want to monitor updates.
Widespread 0.50″-1.50″ of rain is forecast for the region between now and Friday. And, locally heavy rain is likely (as mentioned above).
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO. Thunderstorms are possible over the coming days. Some storms could be on the heavy side. I can’t completely rule out a severe thunderstorm, but the risk appears low. Flash flooding is a possibility in a few locations.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms are possible. Not expecting severe storms.
Thursday: Thunderstorms are possible.
Friday: We may still have to deal with thunderstorm chances on Friday, as well.
The main concern over the coming week will be on and off thunderstorm chances. Where storms occur they could be on the heavy side. Isolated severe weather risk.
There will once again be a lot of moisture in the atmosphere for storms to work with. These means that if storms train over the same areas that rainfall totals could be excessive. This will need to be monitored for flash flooding. A similar pattern occurred in July, as many of you remember.
There is a small risk for severe weather. Wind fields increase a bit on Wednesday. That will need to be monitored. Increasing wind fields is a concern for severe weather. Monitor updates.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
