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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and warmer. A small chance for an evening shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns. If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
Monday – Partly sunny and warmer. More humid, as well. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns. If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
Monday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Tuesday – Partly sunny and warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Friday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Holiday weekend – Partly sunny Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures around 88-92 degrees. Lows around 70 degrees.
Maybe a chance for showers and storms on Monday or Monday night. Still a long way out. Watching an incoming cold front.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A warm week ahead of us. More humid.
2. Only small rain and storm chances on Sunday night and Monday.
3. Remnants of Erika moving northward. Quite a bit of rain possible along it path (Florida).
The beat goes on. A lot of nice days ahead of us. Yes, it will be warming up. But, I don’t see any severe weather concerns. And, we can be thankful for that!
Widespread rain is not anticipated through at least Thursday. We could actually use some rain. A few spots picked up a decent shower/storm on Saturday night and early Sunday morning. A few isolated spots received 1-2″ of rain.
As a weatherman I am enjoying these quiet days. I know fall and winter are approaching. And that guarantees a lot more weather action than this current pattern. Let’s enjoy this weather while it lasts.
Dew points have been on the rise. Could you tell the difference in the air mass? Does it feel more humid? Dew points are a great way to measure moisture in the atmosphere. Once dew points reach into the 65-70 degree range it starts to feel humid. We are going to experience dew points in the 65-72 degree range over the coming days.
With highs in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s it will feel even warmer when combined with higher dew points. But, nothing like earlier this summer.
These are the dew points number for Monday afternoon. Images are from wright-weather.com
Orange colors represent dew points around 68-70 degrees.
Here are the Tuesday numbers
Here are the Wednesday numbers
The warm weather will last into the upcoming weekend.
You can see the ridge here. Remember that I talk often about NW flow? Winds coming in from the northwest. Usually that means a trough. A ridge is what you see on this map. Ridge means warm/hot weather. September will start off warm/hot.
500 mb map (18,000′ aloft) for Monday night. See the ridge?
Let me show you what a trough and ridge looks like from above.
Ridge usually means calm weather. Trough usually means stormy conditions. Here is another graphic that shows you an example of a ridge and trough (this is not a current map)
We have been in a trough over the past few weeks. Much of the summer (on and off) we have been in northwest flow. From time to time the ridge would try and push in. If the ground would not have been so wet during June and July then it would not have felt nearly as hot. The high moisture content of the ground meant very high dew points. Very high dew points made it feel much hotter than the actual temperatures. This happened even when we were in a trough or northwest flow.
Big question mark arrives on the second and third week of September. Data is starting to swing a bit. Whether we end up with the ridge of high pressure keeping us warm or a possible trough to cool us down…that is the question.
The Pacific is hopping mad with hurricanes and typhoons. When these typhoons curve northward they can push a ridge into Alaska and western Canada. When the ridge forms we end up with a trough over our region. If this happens then we will return to northwest flow.
My September forecast has been for more normal to above normal temperature days vs below normal days. Also drier than normal. The question mark will be the typhoons and monitoring their track.
The models are starting to show stronger cold fronts by the second week of September (next week). If that happens then shower and thunderstorm chances may finally return to the picture.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No major widespread rainfall events anticipated through Thursday.
Can’t completely rule out a stray storm on Sunday night and Monday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ONE for Sunday afternoon and night. Near ZERO for Monday.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for a thunderstorm.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns over the coming days. Our nice weather streak continues. Although it will be warming up this week. At least we aren’t dealing with flooding or severe storms! I will take it.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
