Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 31, 2018: (31st) A warm weekend ahead. Subscribers update! The latest short range outlooks, long range outlooks, and videos. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

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Click schedule for a larger view. Keep in mind, during active weather this schedule will change. There will be additional updates outside of what has been posted here.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.

 

 

August 31, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.   A weak impulse will move across the area.  This could pop a few thunderstorms.  Many areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 88     IL ~ 86 to 88       KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:25 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few clouds from time to time.  A widely scattered shower or thunderstorm possible as a weak system moves through the region.  Warm.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Widely scattered wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:25 PM
Moonrise:  10:33 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:11 AM

 

September 1, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.   Most likely dry.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92      IL ~ 88 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92      TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Isolated storms possible, but many areas will remain dry.
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:25 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Most likely dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:22 PM
Moonrise:  11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

September 2, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  A few clouds.  Warm and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few isolated wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:27 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  A few clouds.  An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.  Patchy fog.  Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None in most areas.  Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:22 PM
Moonrise:  11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

September 3, 2018
Labor Day
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 94       KY ~ 86 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Isolated if anything at all.
Wind: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  An isolated wet roadway and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:26 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  Warm.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if anything at all
Wind: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:21 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM  Last Quarter
Moonset: 2:24 PM

 

September 4, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 94       KY ~ 86 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:28 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  A stray thunderstorm early in the evening.
Wind:  South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

September 5, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Hot.  Muggy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:29 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few cumulus clouds.  Warm.  Humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

September 6, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Wind:  South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:30 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind:  South at 5 t0 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:   LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:16 PM
Moonrise: 2:42 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  5:21 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

 

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast.  This takes us into next Friday morning

 

Most of what the WPC has on this map would fall today.  If you don’t receive rain today, then your chances dwindle tomorrow into next week.

 

Remember, this is never exact.  Take the general idea of how much rain could fall.  Some will receive more and some less, as always is the case in our region.

 

Many areas will likely end up with no measurable rainfall.

 

Click to enlarge

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Here is the zoomed version of the above centered on southeast Missouri and southern Illinois

Notice the sharp gradient.  This graphic takes us from now through 7 AM next Friday

Most of what the WPC has on this map would fall today.  If you don’t receive rain today, then your chances dwindle tomorrow into next week.

Many areas will likely end up with no measurable rainfall.

Click to enlarge the graphic

 

 

Zooming in on Kentucky and Tennessee.

This is through 7 AM next Friday

Again, most of what the WPC/NOAA has painted on this map would fall today.

Many areas will likely end up with no measurable rainfall.

 

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Friday and Friday night:  A few thunderstorms are possible today.  If storms form they would produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.  Severe weather is unlikely.

Saturday into Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A small chance of isolated thunderstorms during the heat of the day.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Welcome to the weekend
  2. A few thunderstorms
  3. Warm and humid weekend
  4. Hot and humid next week.
  5. Small rain chances.  Sorry!  I know many still need rain.

 

Some heavy thunderstorms moved across portions of the area last night.  I thought most of them would dissipate before 11 pm.  They were still going strong past that time.

Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning occurred in the thunderstorms.

A few of the storms produced over an inch of rain.  One area that received heavy rain was extreme southwest Kentucky.

You can see on this radar image, taken at 11 pm, the placement of the storms.  They formed along an outflow boundary that stretched from the northwest towards the southeast.  The storms moved in odd directions.  Some of them moved northeast, some moved north, and some moved northwest.

Radar image from 11 p.m., last night. 

 

Here is the radar estimated rainfall from those storms.  A few locations received very heavy rain.

Click to enlarge the images

 

 

We will have a few thunderstorms in the region today.  There are several outflow boundaries left in the area.  Those outflow boundaries are where new storms could form.

Not everyone will receive rain today.  A few spots, however, could pick up over an inch of rain.  There is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere for storms to tap into.  It is just a matter of finding one of those storms parked over your area.

A few storms could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds, as well.

Thunderstorm chances will dwindle tonight into next week.  I have 10% to 20% chances each day.  That would mostly be heat of the day type activity.  Typical of the summer months.  Most areas will remain dry.

I know some of you desperately need rain.  I am afraid widespread relief is not in the current cards.

Temperatures this weekend into next week will mostly be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s during the afternoon hours.  Low temperatures will hover around 70 degrees.  Perhaps a few degrees above 70.  It will also be humid/muggy.

Widespread rain or relief from the heat is not in the forecast through at least next Thursday.

 

Spotter classes

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

 

 

 

The September forecast has been updated. 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

 

 

Precipitation

 

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 


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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short term forecasts.  It is not an exact science.  There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long range forecast.

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.25″ to 0.50″

This outlook covers August 31st through September 6th

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Keep in mind, slow-moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.30″ to 0.60″

This outlook covers September 7th through September 13th

 

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Keep in mind, slow-moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers September 14th through September 27th 

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Keep in mind, slow-moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

 

First glance at fall!

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

 

 

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

 

 

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

 

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

 

 

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

June through August temperature outlook

 

 

Precipitation outlook

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 658

St Louis, Missouri, National Weather Association

This episode of WeatherBrains is coming directly from the NWA annual meeting in St. Louis, MO. Lots of discussion on various topics from the NWA conference. Joining us tonight from the meeting are Dr. John Scala, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Scott Martin, James Spann, Greg Stumpf, Alis Smith, Kevin Laws (BHM), Fred Glass, Dr. Pam Heinselman (NSSL), and Dr. Chuck Graves (St. Louis University).

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 114 at Death Valley, CA, and 29 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Severe thunderstorm watches tonight North Central US
  • MCS from MN into WI Monday night
  • Severe weather stays north from Great Lakes to New England next 2 days
  • One year anniversary of Hurricane Harvey
  • 25th anniversary of 1993 Flood in St. Louis area
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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