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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Sunday night – Some patchy clouds. Cooler. Nice weather for summer! Pleasant. Small chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds in the evening may gust above 20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance at any given spot of a storm.
What impact is expected? None
Monday – A mix of sun and clouds. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorms. Warmer and humid. If storms do develop then they could be intense.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. More humid than recent days.
Winds: West/southwest at 10-15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% or so
What impact is expected? No widespread impact. If a storm forms then brief heavy rain and lightning.
Monday night – Partly cloudy. A 20% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Northwest at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% or so
What impact is expected? None. If a storm forms then brief heavy rain and lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A 20%-30% chance for thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s
Winds: Southwest at 10 mph. Winds will be variable near the stalled front.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. A 40%-50% chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Northwest at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Wednesday – Partly sunny. A 40%-60% chance for thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to perhaps some 90’s (depends on cloud cover)
Winds: Southwest at 10-15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Storms will be possible. Could cause issues with outdoor plans.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. A 60% chance for a thunderstorm. Locally heavy rain possible in some areas.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Could be some issues with rain. Monitor radars
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
What impact is expected? Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Thursday – A good chance for thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: Southwest at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming more west/northwest during the afternoon hours at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
What impact is expected? Brief heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds in areas that experience storms.
Some storms may remain in the forecast on Friday. Low confidence
Saturday and Sunday – very low confidence on the forecast. Will go with dry for now, but I am watching a storm system on Sunday.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Heat returns on Monday and Tuesday!
2. Another heavy rain event unfolding?
3. Where does the front stall out?
The big story of the week is going to be a cold front approaching our region from the north. This front will be the focus of thunderstorms over the coming week. Locally heavy rain is likely along this front. But, where will the front stall out? Will it be over our northern counties or will it be over our southern counties?
Precipitation chances should start to increase on Tuesday through Friday.
Where the front stalls will determine just how much rain any given location will pick up. I am forecasting pockets of 2″-4″ of rain this week with locally higher amounts. Again, not everyone will pick up the big amounts. But, everyone should experience some precipitation this week.
PWAT values this week won’t be quite as high as what happened in July. But, it appears there will be waves of higher PWAT values crossing our region. The high PWAT values will likely coincide with heavier rainfall totals. That is typically the case.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
I will also be monitoring for MCS’s. Normally a stalled front will be the focal point for these events. Disturbances will move along the front and trigger thunderstorm complexes.
The real question on the MCS’s might be tracks. Some data takes them to our north vs right over our counties. Again, tough call this far out on where this pesky front will stall out.
What is a Mesoscale Convective System? Large thunderstorm complexes that form in the late spring and summer months. Here is a great educational lesson on this topic…click here
A lot for forecasters to monitor.
The second story will be increasing heat and humidity levels on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will rise into the 90’s on both days. Heat index values will again be around 100 or above. Use care if you have to be out in the sun. As always, use common sense.
Here are some heat safety rules from NOAA…click here
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. When will the stalled front shift southward?
2. Temperatures will again be pleasant behind the front. We just need to move the front!
The front should push south of the region by Friday or Friday night. Once the front moves southward then we will once again experience lower temperatures and lower humidity levels. The ole back and forth back and forth. Just like June and July with these fronts. An unusual pattern for our region. Normally cold fronts don’t push this far south (or southward) during July and August. But, this year they are.
There remain some questions on this cold front and how far south it will survive. Data is all over the place with the weekend forecast. Low confidence on how this turns out. Monitor updates if you have outdoor plans.
Longer range data indicates at least one or two more fronts next week. If that does happen then more precipitation chances will be in the cards. Stay tuned!
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Well, here we go again. The repeating pattern keeps repeating. Another front will stall out over our region this week. Heavy rain is likely to occur along the front. Where the front stalls out will be key to who ends up with the heavy rain.
Rainfall totals of 2″-4″ are likely to occur in some spots. Right now the exact placement of the front is still in question. I will be fine tuning the forecast as we move forward.
Several rounds of thunderstorms will likely occur in our region from Tuesday into at least Thursday. Hopefully the front pushes southward after Thursday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO. Some storms are possible. Isolated severe weather risk.
Monday: Small severe weather risk.
Tuesday: Some storms are possible.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms are possible. Isolated severe weather risk.
Thursday: Thunderstorms are possible. Isolated severe weather risk.
The main concern over the coming week will be on and off thunderstorm chances. Where storms occur they could be on the heavy side. Isolated severe weather risk.
There will once again be a lot of moisture in the atmosphere for storms to work with. These means that if storms train over the same areas that rainfall totals could be excessive. This will need to be monitored for flash flooding. A similar pattern occurred in July, as many of you remember.
There is a small risk for severe weather. Wind fields increase a bit on Wednesday. That will need to be monitored. Increasing wind fields is a concern for severe weather. Monitor updates.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
