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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday night – Some clouds and milder.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? No major impacts are expected. Lightning would be the main concern (if a storm forms).
Saturday night – Some clouds. A bit warmer than recent nights. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly cloudy and warm. A chance for a couple of showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns. If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and warmer. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns. If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
Monday – Partly sunny and warmer. More humid, as well. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns. If a storm forms then lightning is the main concern.
Monday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Tuesday – Partly sunny and warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some showers on Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms.
2. Disturbance over the weekend will cause some forecast headaches. Possible precipitation.
3. Hot weather next week or just warm? Models are wavering a bit on high temperatures.
4. Update on Erika, for those who have concerns or interests in Florida or the East Coast
Friday delivered yet another beautiful day for the region. Seriously…this is spoiling the weatherman. I know all good things must come to an end. Especially true when it comes to weather in our region. But, for now 🙂 we continue to enjoy the nice weather.
The weatherman can catch up on some sleep during this pattern.
The weekend will deliver slightly warmer temperatures. As a matter of fact perhaps several degrees warmer by Sunday. Someone in the region might touch 90 degrees. A bit more humid, as well.
Next week is shaping up to be warmer (maybe even approaching hot). Expect numerous days with upper 80’s and lower 90’s. It will become more humid, as well. It will feel more like late summer vs early autumn. See, all good things do come to an end.
The good news is that I do not see any severe weather threats on the map. I don’t see any significant storm systems on the map (for our region).
We will have a weak disturbance moving into the region on Saturday and Sunday. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with this system as it tracks east across our region.
Much of next week appears dry, as well. Some model data attempts to break down the pattern towards the end of next week. But, signals and confidence are low. I will monitor and update accordingly. I suppose we could use some rain.
The one caveat might be whatever is left of Tropical Storm Erika. Questions remain on the eventual track and intensity. Some models bring moisture as far north as the Tennessee Valley. Seems like a long shot to me. But, as always…I will be watching.
Enjoy your weekend and enjoy this wonderful weather pattern.
Tropical Weather
Saturday morning update…Erika dissipated overnight as it crossed the islands. Whether this system will regenerate is questionable. If you have vacation interests along the Gulf of Mexico then monitor updates.
Previous update from Friday can be read below…
Erika is struggling and questions remain concerning track and intensity. No promises on if this thing will survive the track over the islands.
If you need to track Erika then here is the best link – click here The system appears to be weakening and may never regain strength. These systems are notoriously difficult to forecast. Strength and path.
The path has shifted a bit westward from previous days. At one point it appeared that it might stall out off the southeast coast. Still several days to monitor this system. It might end up mainly a rain maker for Florida.
One concern is that the system could move into the Gulf of Mexico. Bottom line – lot of scenarios remain for this one.
Don’t forget you can email me your weather photos at beaudodson@usawx.com
Speaking of photographs. I saw this photograph on wunderground.com Beautiful image!
Interest in severe weather spotting?
The Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service will be holding a couple of spotter classes in September.
Here is the information – click here
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Updated on Saturday morning…
An area of showers and an occasional thunderstorm was moving across southeast Missouri this morning. I increased rain chances by a bit. Rainfall totals of 0.10″-0.30″ could occur in some locations.
Best chances will be over southeast Missouri. The area of showers should weaken somewhat as it moves into southern Illinois and western Kentucky. But, could hold together enough to produce some measurable rainfall. Albeit, light.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Friday. Perhaps nearing a ONE by Saturday and Sunday when a couple of showers and storms might form, although the odds favor dry weather. Will continue to monitor.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for a thunderstorm.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for a thunderstorm.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for a thunderstorm.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Once again, no major concerns! Very small chance for a thunderstorm on Sunday. Less than 20% risk.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
