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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, then please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
We are waking up to an amazing morning. Temperatures in some counties have dipped into the 50s!
Here are the 6 am temperatures.
Forecast
The region is currently caught between high pressure over the Southwest and a dip in the jet stream over the Northeast.
You can see that jet stream dip on this map.
High pressure is also sitting over our area. Recent forecast changes have shifted the ridge farther west. Because of this, the small weather systems that could have brought a few showers today and Tuesday are now expected to stay west of Southeast Missouri.
So, Monday and Tuesday should be dry, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s.
🌦️ Wednesday & Thursday
A small chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday and continues into Thursday morning as another weather system and cold front move through.
Forecast confidence is still low, since computer models don’t agree very well on the timing and location of the rain.
Humidity will also slowly increase starting Wednesday as dew points climb into the mid to upper 60s.
That is humid, but nothing like two weeks ago when dew points were in the 70s and 80s.
🌡️ Weekend Outlook
Temperatures will gradually warm through the week. By the weekend, low 90s are possible as winds turn back out of the south.
Bottom line: Enjoy a dry and comfortable Monday and Tuesday. Isolated storms may return Wednesday and Thursday, followed by warmer weather and lower 90s by the weekend.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 23rd through August 30th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NONE. We do not expect severe thunderstorms over the coming days.
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🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. Small chances Wednesday through Thursday. Overall, chances are low.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. Some locations may flirt with 90 this week. Mostly eighties through Thursday. Highs may reach the lower 90s by the weekend. A slow rise through the week.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NOT AT THIS TIME.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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Let’s Look At The Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
NOTES:
- This is through next Thursday.
- Scattered storms are possible Saturday into next week. Some areas may simply remain dry. A few spots will pick up a summer downpour.
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Monday
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Tuesday night
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Wednesday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
Hrrr Model
RADAR IS NOT SHOWING PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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