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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
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Here is the event summary from Wednesday night and Thursday’s storms.
https://www.weather.gov/pah/Aug19-20_2026Severe
After Thursday morning’s active weather, today should be much quieter and more pleasant. Thakfully.
High pressure over the Midwest will bring mostly dry and comfortable conditions for late August.
However, fog will be possible this morning, especially in areas that received rain yesterday. Clear skies, light winds, and wet ground will help fog develop, and some locations could see dense fog that reduces visibility.
A few showers and thunderstorms may pop up on Saturday. I will cap chances around 30%.
🌦️ Looking Ahead
The overall weather pattern will become more active next week. High pressure will build over the southern and southwestern United States, while cooler air and storm systems remain farther north. This will keep our area in a northwest flow pattern, which can send several disturbances and chances for showers and thunderstorms into the region.
Forecast confidence is still fairly low on the exact timing and location of these storms.
Saturday: As mentioned above, computer models disagree on how much rain and storm activity we’ll see. A low-pressure system will move through the Great Lakes, and its cold front could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Some models show very little rain, while others suggest a better chance of storms.
For now, I will keep chances low. Then, if something changes, I will send out an updated forecast. Don’t forget that you can turn on your daily forecast on the www.weathertalk.com website
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Turn on the one that says daily forecast. Make it green for on. Red is off. All of these come with your subscription. You can turn any of them on and off. Please leave number one on. That is the severe storm and tornado alerts.

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Monday through Wednesday: Additional chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. The details should become clearer as we get closer, but next week could turn fairly active.
See the rain probability charts below. I post those for each county. That way you have a better idea of where chances are higher vs lower.
Temperatures and humidity should remain near normal for late August. 🌤️ That is the good news. No extreme heat for a bit.
Bottom line: Enjoy this nicer weather. A pleasant day today after some morning fog, a possible round of storms Saturday, followed by daily storm chances Monday through Wednesday.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
August 21st through August 28th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: NONE. We do not expect severe thunderstorms over the coming days. I will keep an eye on it. A few storms are possible, but below severe levels.
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🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. We will have some low-end lightning chances from Saturday into next week. Right now, there are no strong signals for widespread lightning.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals. Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well. Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
NOTES:
- This is through next Thursday.
- Scattered storms are possible Saturday into next week. Some areas may simply remain dry. A few spots will pick up a summer downpour.
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
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Saturday
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Saturday night
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Sunday night
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Monday
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Monday night
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Tuesday
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
Hrrr Model
RRFS Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.


Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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