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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday – Some morning patchy fog possible. Partly sunny. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Some precipitation will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Risk is not zero, but isn’t great
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Tuesday night – Showers and thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be strong, especially over our western and northwestern counties (southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois).
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars because some storms are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small chance for an isolated severe storm. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% early increasing to 40%-60% after 3 am
What impact is expected? A heavy downpour possible. Gusty winds and lightning.
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be on the heavy side.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for severe weather
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, strong winds, frequent lightning, and a few reports of hail possible.
Wednesday night – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be on the heavy side.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest behind the cold front at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk of severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%–70%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, strong winds, frequent lightning, and a few reports of hail possible.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Cooler and not as humid. Perhaps some remaining morning showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% during the morning
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy and not as humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% or less
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Friday night – Mostly clear sky conditions.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? We will need to monitor for a few showers or thunderstorms.
Another cold front may near the region on Sunday and Monday. If so then we will see thunderstorm chances increase once again.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
2. Cold front arrives on Wednesday and Wednesday night
3. Cooler by Wednesday night into Friday. Warming up after that?
For about a week now I have been talking about the potential of a cold front around the middle of this week. That train is going to pull into the station by Wednesday and Wednesday night.
The front will be accompanied by an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. Let’s break it down day by day.
Monday night will bring a few showers and thunderstorms. This is especially true during the evening hours. Otherwise, partly cloudy sky conditions overnight. A bit warm and a little more humid.
Tuesday will deliver a mix of sun and clouds. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot radar from time to time. Widespread precipitation, however, is not anticipated.
By Tuesday night we will watch aerial coverage of showers and thunderstorms increase from west to east. A few of the storms could produce downpours, gusty winds, and lightning.
The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur on Wednesday morning into Wednesday night. I am thinking just about everyone will receive measurable precipitation during this time frame. Some of the rain will become locally heavy. Generally speaking everyone should pick up 0.40″-0.75″ of rain. There will be some areas that pick up multiple thunderstorms. Where this occurs you can expect rainfall totals over one inch.
We will have a rather potent system moving through our region (especially considering it is August). Some of the storms on Wednesday into Wednesday evening could produce high winds and small hail. The region has been outlined for a few severe thunderstorms. Confidence is rather low on this subject. At least as of this writing. Monitor updates, as always.
Let’s take a look at the weather map for Wednesday. Check out the deep low over Minnesota and Wisconsin. This is not typical for August. The big L is the area of low pressure. A cold front will trail from that low into the Missouri Valley.
That deep low is helping to pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the area of low pressure you see the northerly winds wrapping around the low. If this was October or November then heavy snow would be falling over portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Below is the official severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. This is for Wednesday. The bright yellow area represents where a few severe storms could occur (the lighter yellow represents general thunderstorms, but likely below severe levels). The orange area represents where the risk might be a little bit higher. The further north/northeast you travel in the area then the better chances for a few severe thunderstorms.
Personally I think the risk for severe weather on Wednesday is minimal. The SPC disagrees. 🙂 But, that happens sometimes. We will see if SPC changes their outlook in their new update Tuesday morning and again on Tuesday afternoon.
Zoomed out national view (a new map will be posted Tuesday morning). This outlook is for Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Questions remain on how unstable the atmosphere will become on Wednesday. If we have a lot of morning clouds and rain then that will help keep instability down. I won’t know this until Tuesday night or perhaps even Wednesday morning.
Bottom line is that you should monitor updated forecasts. But, I think the overall severe weather risk is minimal.
PWAT values will be fairly high ahead of the cold front. What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Let’s look at the PWAT maps from weatherbell.com
Again, the higher the PWAT values the more moisture thunderstorms have to work with. Once you get into the 1.8″-2.2″ range you are dealing with a LOT of moisture in the atmosphere. That could spell some heavy downpours on Wednesday. This is the Wednesday noon PWAT map.
Can you picture the area of low pressure over Minnesota and Wisconsin? Low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. Thus, the moisture is being pulled northward into and around the low. Pretty cool!
Those red colors, over our region, represent PWAT values above 2″.
The cold front sweeps through the region on Wednesday night. This will lower our dew points. Higher dew points equal muggier air. Lower dew points equal a nicer air mass. To learn more about dew points…click here
Let’s look at the dew point chart for Wednesday compared to Thursday.
This map is from wright-weather.com You can see the orange colors representing dew points in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Muggy air.
Now, let’s move forward into Thursday. Awwwww much better air-mass! Dew points have dropped into the 50’s and lower 60’s. Fresher air for August. We are on a nice little run for the month. Not your normal August weather.
This is a nice trough for August. Typically we do not see this type of storm system during the middle of summer. This is more typical of September or October. But, alas we take what we nature delivers. Nobody has complained about our recent nice temperatures.
A trough is a dip in the jet stream. Let me show you the upcoming trough on the 500 mb map. Upper level map. 500 mb represents 18,000′ high into the atmosphere.
A trough is a welcome sight during the summer. It means cooler or at least below normal temperatures.
Let’s look at some temperature anomaly maps. These maps are from weatherbell.com
This first map is for Thursday. Note all the blue colors. That represents below normal temperatures behind the cold front.
Moving ahead to Friday. We start to chip away at the below normal temperatures and move more towards normal temperatures.
By Sunday we see quite a bit of red and orange over our region. This represents above normal temperatures. We might see another cold front near our region by Sunday and Monday. You can see the blue colors well to our west. That would be behind the next cold front.
And, just for fun. Let’s look at the latest September temperature outlook from the CFS model. I am still expecting above normal temperatures in September.
This map seems to back up those ideas. We will see how it goes. Lot of orange on the map! Those colors represent above normal temperatures.
Another cold front may enter the picture around Sunday and Sunday night. If so then we will see rain chances increase once again.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Trying to fine tune the forecast as we move forward. At one point it appeared we would have at least a chance for a few storms on Thursday and Friday. Right now those chances appear smaller than they did a day or two ago.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Locally heavy rain will be possible.
It appears that most areas should pick up between 0.40″-0.75″. Pockets of 1″+ certainly can’t be ruled out. This would like occur where several rounds of storms track.
Here is the official NWS broad-brushed rainfall outlook. You can see quite a bit of 0.75″-1.25″ colors over our region.
We will see how it goes.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be TWO on Tuesday. And a THREE on Wednesday.
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Tuesday: A few storms possible. Isolated severe thunderstorm possible over our northwestern counties of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Tuesday night: Thunderstorms are possible. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out.
Wednesday: There will be a minimal risk for a couple of storms becoming severe.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms on radar Saturday
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. We could have a few storms on radar Sunday
We will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday night. A few storms could be intense on Tuesday night and again on Wednesday.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region for a few severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. The main concern would be a few reports of damaging winds. The risk for severe weather at any given location is rather small. Monitor updates.
Remember, a severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail, 58 mph winds, and/or a tornado.
The tornado risk on Wednesday is low.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
