We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Are you looking for a full service insurance agency that writes homes, businesses, and vehicles in Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Call Gary’s office at 270.442.8234 for rates and plans to protect what matters to you!
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy. Mild. A 20% chance for a thunderstorm over western Kentucky and Tennessee. That is a 2 in 10 chance of a storm in those areas. Meaning, there will likely be a couple of storms on radar, but most areas should remain dry.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s .
Winds: East/southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? No widespread impacts anticipated
Sunday – Partly sunny. A little warmer. A little more humid. Small chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Sunday night – Just a few clouds. Mild. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 60’s .
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%–20% early
What impact is expected? No widespread impacts anticipated
Monday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Some precipitation will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Monday night – Partly cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s .
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars because some storms are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% early and 20% late.
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. Some precipitation will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars because some storms are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%.
What impact is expected? If storms form then a brief downpour. Gusty winds. Lightning.
Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Locally heavy downpours and a few strong storms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? A few severe storms can’t be ruled out.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, strong winds, frequent lightning, and a few reports of hail possible.
Wednesday night – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be strong during the evening hours.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest behind the cold front at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? A few severe storms possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, strong winds, frequent lightning, and a few reports of hail possible.
Thursday – Partly cloudy and not as humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Thursday night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy and not as humid. Small chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting significant impacts from weather.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Sunday will bring warm temperatures
2. Small storm chances on Sunday and Monday
3. Better chances for precipitation as we push into the middle of the week
I am at the airport this afternoon. Returning home from a little vacation. It has been great weather over the past week. And, for this forecast that has been a real blessing. I was able to enjoy my break without worrying about the weather!
We are in August and that typically means the slowest weather of the year. The jet stream has shifted well to the north. A large area of high pressure is centered over the four corners region. This high is controlling much of the weather over the United States.
The jet stream typically becomes more active as we push into late September and October. It is at that time that we start thinking about severe weather. October and November historically bring several rounds of severe storms to our region. It is important to remember that some of our most deadly tornado outbreaks have occurred during the fall months. So, I will be watching this over the coming months. And then, of course, we have to deal with winter forecasting. For some of you this is your favorite time of the year. While others dread the winter cold and snow. I will be on top of it!
Sunday’s forecast…
I am forecasting decent weather for Sunday. Temperatures will be a little bit warmer with highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. It will also be a bit more humid. It will feel more like August.
We could have a few scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening. Same for Monday. Right now it does not appear to be a widespread rain event. Scattered.
A cold front is forecast to move into the region around Wednesday/Thursday. Same front we have been watching for a week. Some uncertainty as to whether this front will sweep through the region or if it will stall out. Too soon to make a call. I will watch the trends.
Expect an uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances by Wednesday and Thursday. Not sure, yet on Friday.
Temperatures next week will be warm. High temperatures in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s. If we end up with more clouds on one or two days then that will knock a few degrees off of highs. Expect humidity levels to be higher next week, as well. Dew points will range from the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.
I will have a lot more to say about El Nino over the coming months. I already see the media hyping this event. I suspect anything and everything will be blamed on El Nino before the winter is over. You will be sick of hearing about it. As will I. El Nino is only one part of the winter forecast. It is not the whole. There are many many other factors that come into play when we start thinking about a winter forecast. PDO and NAO. The waters immediately off the West Coast are of more interest to me.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Scattered storms on Sunday could produce 0.25″-0.50″. Isolated spots. Same for Monday.
Perhaps better rain chances around Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall could be locally heavy. Still some questions remain on placement and coverage. I hope to have a better handle on this on Sunday afternoons update.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be One on Sunday. One means that a few storms will be possible, but they should remain below severe levels.
Sunday: A few storms possible
Monday: A few storms possible
Tuesday: A few storms possible
Wednesday: An increase in storm coverage possible. A few storms could become severe.
Not concerned about any extreme weather. An uptick in heat index values over the weekend.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
