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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Sunday night – Some clouds. Showers and thunderstorms developing from the northwest. Some strong storms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph. Some gusts to 15 mph. Winds will mainly be out of the southwest.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radar
Is severe weather expected? A couple of storms could produce damaging winds. Especially true for northern parts of southeast Missouri and perhaps into southwest Illinois.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Monday – Partly cloudy. A 40%-60% chance for thunderstorms. Storm chances will mainly be during the morning hours. Then a chance of some showers and storms redeveloping during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Winds becoming west/northwest late. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to monitor weather updates. Some storms will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated risk
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% early in the morning and then 30% in the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Monday night – Some clouds. A 30% chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case there are a few storms.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Cooler. Less humid. Only a slight chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Below normal temperatures. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and nice. Pleasant weather for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August. Perhaps a little warmer and a little more humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – A few clouds. Nice weather for August, once again.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly sunny. Again, nice weather for August. A bit warmer and a little more humid as winds turn around to the south.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation, but lower confidence
What impact is expected? None
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Storms Sunday night into Monday
2. Cold front arrives early this week! Much nicer weather (see the extended discussion below)
The main story will be the nicer weather in the extended forecast. But, first we have to deal with some showers and thunderstorms.
This early evening (Sunday evening) we might have some storms developing. Mainly northern counties. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds if storms form. Keep that in mind. Many areas will remain dry, but a few might end up wet.
I am expecting more storms to develop later Sunday night to our west and north. These storms will slide south and east. I have increased rain chances from what I had in the forecast yesterday. I am going with 40%-60% chances. Locally heavy rain will be possible with storms. That is typically the case during July and August.
PWAT values are high ahead of the front. Normally they pool ahead of a front like this. High PWAT values typically mean prolific rain producing storms. And, that could be the case for a few spots on Sunday night and Monday morning.
Here is the PWAT map from weatherbell.com
Those red colors over our region indicate a lot of moisture in the atmosphere (Monday morning). Again, this is ahead of the front.
Here is the HRRR model. It shows precipitation through 3 am Monday morning. Pockets of heavy rain showing up.
Image is from weatherbell.com
Of interest is the WRF model. It shows less precipitation over our region than some other models.
The NAM WRF model is showing some storms in our region on Sunday night and Monday morning. And, this would make sense. High PWAT values, an incoming cold front, warm/moist air ahead of the front. A disturbance moving in from the west along the front. All ingredients for lift. Lift equals thunderstorms, at least this time around.
Here is the WRF map. This is what it believes radar will look like late Sunday night and early Monday morning. It won’t be exact, but you get the general idea. Images are from weatherbell.com Click them for a larger view. The colors represent precipitation. Brighter colors represent heavier storms. This is the 6 am Monday morning image.
This second image is around 10 am. Again, it won’t be exact. But, you get the general idea.
Notice how it broke up over southern Illinois and parts of Kentucky? Again, this is the models idea of what might happen. It won’t be exact. But, if the model is correct then some spots will miss out on precipitation.
Right now it appears small chances for storms on Monday night (lingering around). Then it appears we should dry out on Tuesday. Some models paint a couple of showers on Tuesday. But, I believe it will be dry over most of the area. NICE, as well 🙂 A very unusual week of August ahead of us.
This might be one of those weeks with the puffy/fluffy cumulus clouds in the sky. Sort of like the Simpsons Cartoon.
Below…Wednesday morning lows. 🙂 Now, check that out. Very nice.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The rest of the work week
Well, right now it appears that a very nice week of weather is ahead of us. Tuesday into Friday should bring calm weather. Lower humidity levels. Lower temperatures.
We might end experience some upper 50’s over parts of the region during the upcoming work week. At least lower 60’s are a good bet.
Not bad for August!!!!
You can see the jet stream diving down from the north. Did you know we have basically been in this pattern for a couple of years. It is the warm pool of water off the west coast that is responsible for much of our pattern.
I will be watching for higher humidity and temperatures to perhaps creep back into the region on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. But, we still have time to monitor that subject.
Enjoy this amazing week of weather.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Some storms this Sunday evening. Locally heavy downpours where they occur.
A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to push into our region on Monday morning. Perhaps late Sunday night and Monday morning.
Best chances for storms might end up over southern IL and southwest IN. Then extending into parts of western Kentucky. Some questions as to how far west the chances will extend (into southeast Missouri).
Sometimes these thunderstorm complexes can deviate from what would be considered a normal path.
Locally heavy rain will be possible with the complex of storms.
Dry weather is expected from Tuesday into at least Friday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is TWO for Monday. A few storms possible.
Monday: A chance for a few thunderstorms. Severe weather risk is small.
Tuesday: Not expecting storms
Wednesday: Not expecting storms
Thursday: Not expecting storms
Friday: Not expecting storms
Saturday: Not expecting storms
Sunday: Not expecting storms
Can’t rule out some thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and night. Another cold front will be dipping southward into our region. The front will be accompanied by some showers and storms.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
