April 9, 2024: Wet!

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely today into Thursday and perhaps Thursday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. Storms are likely this week. I am watching Wednesday and Thursday for a few stronger storms. Latest data shows a few storms could be severe Wednesday night over mainly Kentucky and Tennessee. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? YES. Locally heavy rain is likely into Thursday. It is possible that several inches of rain will fall. This will enhance river flooding. There is a crest coming down the Ohio River from Pennsylvania and Ohio. These rain could enhance that. In addition to that, there could be some ponding of water in fields and ditches. Rises in streams are likely, as well. Some flood warnings are possible this week. Monitor updates.

The heaviest rain will fall Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? MONITOR. Winds may approach 40 mph Thursday night/Friday. Monitor updates. These would be gradient winds behind our storm system as it deepens and pulls away from our region.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the region through Wednesday, and then taper off from west to east on Thursday. Most locations will see between 1 and 3 inches of rain. Very strong west to northwest winds are expected Thursday into Friday as the area tries to dry out. Low relative humidity is expected throughout the area Friday and Saturday, but south winds will return and become gusty Saturday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 t0 2o mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 6:54 AM
Moonset: 8:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely. We will need to monitor the track of the area of low pressure. Where it tracks, the rain totals will be lower. Heavier rain to the northwest of the low.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 t0 2o mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely. We will need to monitor the track of the area of low pressure. Where it tracks, the rain totals will be lower. Heavier rain to the northwest of the low. Some storms could be intense over Kentucky and Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:26 AM
Moonset: 10:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Thursday Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms ending.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Ending.
Timing of the precipitation: Ending
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:05 AM
Moonset: 11:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 65° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 15 to 35 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:28 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 8:50 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights

1. Showers and thunderstorms on and off into Thursday evening.
2. We will need to watch the dry slow Wednesday Wednesday night. That is where rain totals will be lower.
3. Locally heavy rain.
4. Gusty winds this week, as well.
5. Monitoring the risk of severe weather Wednesday and Thursday. For now it appears to be a low risk.
6. Dry Friday into Saturday.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone. A complicated forecast through Friday.

Let’s dig into it!

First off, there were some large hail reports yesterday over northwest Tennessee. A surprise band of severe thunderstorms moved north northeast through western Tennessee and eventually impacted mainly Henry County, Tennessee.

There were not supposed to be severe thunderstorms. The instability zone pushed a tad farther north than expected.

Here were some photos of very large hail near Paris, Tennessee.

So, that happened!

We do not expect severe thunderstorms today through Wednesday morning.

What we do expect, however, will be showers and thunderstorms. On and off precipitation chances will be the general rule into Thursday. Ending Thursday night.

It won’t rain all of the time, but there will be rain on radar throughout this time-period.

At times, the rain will be locally heavy. When all is said and done, the region will experience a widespread one to two inches of rain with pockets of greater than two inches. I could not be surprised to see some three inch amounts.

Here is the latest official WPC rainfall forecast.

This could lead to some flooding issues. Thus far, there is not a flood or flash flood watch for our local area, but that could change if confidence in the placement of the locally heavy rain increases.

I am watching what is called a dry slot Wednesday/Wednesday night. The dry slot is where rain coverage will be less. That is typically right along the path of the area of low pressure. Typically, rain coverage is less right along the path of the area of low pressure and to the right of the area of low pressure. Heavier rain totals to the west northwest of the area of low pressure.

We believe that low is going to track through Tennessee and then Kentucky while moving north northeast. That could place portions of the dry slot in our local area. Let’s keep an eye on that.

A widespread rain event is on tap for the region. Umbrella weather will be the general rule this week. We need rain, so this is good news. Just bad timing for some farmers!

It will be mild this week. Nothing extreme one way or another. Gusty winds most of the week, as well.

Winds Friday could approach wind advisory levels. That would be 40 mph gusts. I will keep an eye on it.

Dry conditions are likely as we move deeper into Thursday night, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. A strong warming trend Saturday and Sunday. Some locations could even reach the upper 70s by Sunday. 🙂 Nice!

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.