April 9, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

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Today: No.
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Tomorrow: No.

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Today through Thursday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday afternoon and night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Yes. Some storms could become severe Thursday afternoon and night. Damaging winds are possible. Isolated tornadoes.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Friday through Monday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday night into Sunday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring Saturday night into Sunday night. For now, it appears the risk will remain to our south and southeast.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Most likely no. I will be monitoring Saturday night into Sunday night for locally heavy rain. Monitor updates.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 9, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Morning fog will mix out. Mostly sunny. Warm. A few passing clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 72° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Variable winds becoming north and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler. Patchy fog is again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 7:25 PM
Moonrise: 9:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:52 PM

April 10, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:

Mostly sunny. A few clouds from time to time. Warm. Becoming windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° SE MO 76° to 82° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 75° to 80° NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 during the morning. South at 15 to 30 mph during the afternoon. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 High
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Windy. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:26 PM
Moonrise: 10:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

April 11, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Strong winds. Warm. Partly sunny during the morning. Increasing clouds through the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of an incoming cold front late in the afternoon. Some of the storms will likely become severe with damaging wind gusts. The storms will move east/northeast at 55+ mph. Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 76° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 76° to 78° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 25 to 45 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 40% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: A line of showers and thunderstorms will form mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. It will sweep west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Some storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B during the mid to late afternoon hours. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: A band of showers and thunderstorms will be pushing across the region. Some storms could be severe. Rain ending quickly west to east as the evening wears on. Clearing. Colder. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 42° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 15 to 35 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous, Ending west to east overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:26 PM
Moonrise: 10:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:54 AM

April 12, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
.
Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:27 PM
Moonrise: 11:55 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
Moonset: 1:53 AM

Saturday: Increasing clouds. A chance for an afternoon shower. Shower chances increasing southwest and south towards the north and northeast. Rain will eventually overspread the entire region as we move into Saturday night. Highs in the lower to middle 60’s. Lows in the middle 40’s. East and northeast at 7 to 14 during the day and increasing to 10 to 20 and gusty at night.

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Sunday: Rain likely. Moderate rain possible. A thunderstorm is also possible. Turning much colder Sunday night. Windy. Highs in the middle to upper 50’s. Lows in the middle to upper 30’s. West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.

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Monday: Mostly sunny. Some passing clouds. Highs in the middle to upper 60’s. Lows in the middle to upper 40’s. South and southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated with a new graphic around 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday through Sunday: Thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and night. Some could be severe. Monitor updates. The greatest risk may end up over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

Lightning is possible Saturday night and Sunday. We may remain on the cool side of that system. If that happens then the risk of lightning will be reduced. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Dry today into Thursday morning.
Warm Tuesday through Thursday with widespread 70’s.
A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night with additional thunderstorm chances. Monitor updates in case severe storms develop.
Strong and gusty winds likely on Wednesday night/Thursday/Thursday night.
More rain arrives Saturday night into Sunday.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major adjustments.

The spring and summer outlooks have been updated. Scroll towards the bottom of the page to see those.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

No.

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Forecast discussion.

A nice day on tap for the region. No weather concerns today, tonight, or tomorrow! It will be mild today with widespread 70’s. A bit cooler tonight with lows in the 40’s. Warm on Wednesday with highs again in the 70’s. Loving this weather.

Our next weather maker will deliver a blizzard to the Northern Plains. You will be hearing about it on the news. Thankfully, we will be on the warm side of this event.

Moisture, from the Gulf of Mexico, will struggle to return to our region. Our previous system is pushing the higher dew points well southward.

Here is the forecast dew point numbers early Tuesday morning. Notice the higher numbers are well to our south.

Also, notice the numbers being pulled into Nebraska. That is an indication of our next storm system.

The low will pull moisture northward. Low pressure rotates counter-clockwise.

Now, let’s look at Thursday at 7 PM.

See the stream of higher numbers in our region? The models waffle on the exact numbers. Sometimes they show upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Other times they show lower to middle 50’s.

It is a thin river of deeper moisture. Perhaps, just enough to help produce a band of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.

Without a lot of time for recovery, there remain questions about the extent of shower and thunderstorm activity locally from the incoming system (arriving on Thursday afternoon/night).

Dew points will struggle to reach the upper 50’s or lower 60’s. For severe weather, I like to see at least 58-degree dew points.

If we have enough moisture then the cold front will support a band showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it.

Wind fields aloft will be strong. This will be in response to an unusually deep area of low pressure well to our north and northwest.

Gradient winds (caused by low and high pressure) will be strong and gusty from Wednesday night into Thursday night. As a matter of fact, winds on Thursday near the front should gust above 35 mph. I would not be surprised if there were some gusts about 45 mph.

What moisture does pool ahead of the cold front will set the stage for a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night.

Some of the thunderstorms could produce small hail, damaging wind gusts, and even isolated tornadoes.

Overall, this is another conditional severe weather event.

What does conditional mean? It means that some of the severe weather ingredients are marginal. If those ingredients don’t come together then the risk of severe thunderstorms is lower.

If dew points can reach the upper 50’s and lower 60’s then the risk of severe storms will increase.

For now, we need to monitor trends.

I am forecasting a line of showers and thunderstorms to form in the region and then rapidly move east/northeast at speeds of 55 mph or greater. Some storms could be severe.

It is possible the line forms right over us. That could mean some areas experience no precipitation. The further west you travel the greater the odds of nothing happening. Monitor updates moving forward.

It will turn much colder behind the front.

Lows Friday morning will be mostly in the 40’s. Lows Saturday morning will drop into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. Hopefully, we can avoid another frost. We should be just warm enough for any significant issues.

Our next storm system arrives with showers and perhaps thundershowers on Saturday night and Sunday. The low should track to our southeast. If that happens then there will not be any severe weather concerns.

We still have some time to iron out the details of that system.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

The main concern continues to be another cold front on Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Then, another system Saturday night/Sunday.

Let me show you a few model future-cast radar animations.

This is the GFS model guidance animation. This is the Thursday event. This is a strong cold front. Wind shear will be strong. Instability may be lacking. The wind shear could make up the difference. Strong storms are possible. Let’s keep an eye on it.

Timestamp upper left.

Click to enlarge.

Here is the NAM model guidance. Another model.

Notice both the GFS and the NAM quickly develop a line of thunderstorms over our local area. Not everyone, however, receives rain.

This will be a narrow band of showers and storms that cross portions of the region.

Damaging wind is the main concern.

Some models show no precipitation for some of my forecast counties.

Timestamp upper left.

And here is the upcoming weekend event on the GFS.

This system moves up from the Gulf of Mexico. That means it could have quite a bit of moisture with it.

This event is still several days away. I will be monitoring trends in guidance. Moderate rain is possible if the low tracks over our region.

Severe weather appears unlikely with it.

The EC model holds rain off until Sunday morning. The GFS model is a bit faster with the rain arrival time.

The exact timing will need to be ironed out.

Dates to monitor for precipitation.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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WeatherBrains Episode 689

Tonight’s WeatherBrains is a special show regarding the NWS’s Hazard Simplification Program or “Haz Simp”. This program has been around for a couple of years and is designed to potentially redesign and reinvigorate the National Weather Service Watch/Warning/Advisory system.

Our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a Social Science Researcher and Project Manager for Haz Simp along with Eli Jacks of the NWS. Her background is in meteorology, but her PhD program is interdisciplinary with a focus on sociology of disasters and risk communication. Danielle Nagele, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Guest Panelist this week is soon-to-be graduating meteorology student from the University of Oklahoma. Jordan Overton, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: