Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 8, 2018: Quick forecast update. Still some frost chances.

 

April 8, 2018
Sunday night
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A chance of rain or rain/snow and sleet mix.  Cold.  Little or no impact from the wintry mix.
Temperatures:  MO ~  28 to 34      IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 32 to 36      TN ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset: 7:23 PM

 

 

 

April 9, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Morning clouds, especially northern half of the region.  Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds.  A 20% of a shower or snow shower before 8 AM across northern portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.   It may end up being sunny over the southern half of the region.  Clouds increase as you move northward.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62      IL ~  55 to 58         KY ~ 56 to 62      TN ~  60 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  20% before 8 AM       KY ~ 20% early          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely over before sunrise.
Winds: Becoming northwest 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:28 AM

 

Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds.  A chance of frost.  The risk of frost increases if clouds clear.  Chilly for April.
Temperatures:  MO ~  32 to 36      IL ~ 30 to 35      KY ~ 32 to 36        TN ~ 33 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Winds:  North and northwest 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Frost possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:23 PM

 

 

April 10, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 53 to 56      IL ~  52 to 55         KY ~ 53 to 56       TN ~  54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northeast 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:27 AM

 

Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Frost again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  34 to 36      IL ~ 33 to 36      KY ~ 34 to 38        TN ~ 36 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Frost
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:24 PM

 

 

April 11, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Some increase in clouds as the day wears on.  It will feel more like spring.  Breezy, at times.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~  62 to 66         KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~  62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:25 AM

 

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  A slight chance of a fast-moving shower.  Not as cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~  45 to 50      IL ~ 46 to 52      KY ~ 48 to 52        TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Slight chance of a wet roadway.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:25 PM

 

 

April 12, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Warmer.  Spring temperatures.  Mostly sunny.  Breezy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 75      IL ~  70 to 75          KY ~ 70 to 74       TN ~  73 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:24 AM

 

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Mild.  Breezy.
Temperatures:  MO ~  52 to 56      IL ~ 52 to 56       KY ~ 53 to 56        TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:26 PM

 

 

April 13, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Quite a bit of sun.  Breezy.  Some increase in clouds with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3 PM
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 75      IL ~  70 to 75         KY ~ 72 to 76       TN ~  72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps a few late day showers or thunderstorms.
Winds: South at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.  The precipitation chances would be late in the day.  The front may hold off until Friday night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check updates and radars.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM

 

The timing of the cold frontal passage Friday night and Saturday will be key to the weekend forecast.

The timing appears to be anywhere from Friday night into Saturday afternoon.

 

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be heavy.  Mild temperatures.
Temperatures:  MO ~  55 to 60      IL ~ 55 to 60      KY ~ 55 to 60        TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  50%          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight.
Winds:  South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roads and lightning.  Monitor the threat of severe weather.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Severe weather can’t be ruled out.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:27 PM

 

 

April 14, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  A chance of morning showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be heavy.  The timing of the cold front will need to be monitored.  Temperatures may peak early in the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68      IL ~  64 to 68         KY ~ 65 to 70       TN ~  65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous during the morning.  Decreasing coverage as the day wears on.
Winds: Becoming west at 6 to 12 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of intense thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Perhaps.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM

 

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Clearing.  Colder.  Monitor frost chances.
Temperatures:  MO ~  35 to 40      IL ~ 35 to 40      KY ~ 35 to 40        TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Winds:  West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:28 PM

 

 

April 15, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly sunny.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50      IL ~  45 to 50        KY ~ 45 to 50       TN ~  45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:20 AM

 

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Frost possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 35 to 40      IL ~ 35 to 50      KY ~ 35 to 50        TN ~ 35 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:29 PM

 

 

April 16, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60      IL ~  55 to 60         KY ~ 55 to 60       TN ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:18 AM

 

Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Not as cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48      IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:30 PM

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