Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

3:45 PM

SPC now considering a tornado watch for parts of eastern MO and southern IL

More information here

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/md0237.html

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3:30 PM

I think a tornado watch may need to be issued for parts of eastern MO and southern IL.  Supercell coming out of east Missouri looks tornadic and could produce severe weather.

 

1 PM Update

Severe thunderstorm watch covers the northern half of our region until 6 pm.  Supercells moving out of eastern Missouri could produce large hail and high winds.  They will move east over the coming hours.

Watch is in blue

8 AM Update

Today is a good day to monitor updates.  Some severe storms are likely later today.  This is especially true for parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Officially the whole area has been outlined for a risk of severe storms today.  I am not sure that is going to happen.  I could see a risk over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The rest of us – maybe we will see some pop up storms later today, as well.

I suppose if we heat up this afternoon that if a storm were to form elsewhere in the region it could produce hail and strong winds.  We will see how it goes.  I do think the best chances for severe storms today will be over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

This is the outlook graphic that shows the area of most concern.  That would be the area in red.  We will see if this shifts around in later updates.  Check back.

Monitor updates today.

Also, late tonight we might see an increasing chance of storms over much of the region.  Those will need to be monitored for severe weather potential, as well.

I have broken this graphic up into two regions today.  Northern half of the area and southern half of the area.

Tomorrow – everything is on track for some morning storms (could be heavy storms) and then a squall line tomorrow evening and night.  The squall line will have some severe weather associated with it.

Here are a couple of new maps from this morning’s HRRR model run.

This is for later today.  You can see some big storms showing up over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  These could produce hail and high winds.

This is from weatherbell.com and is for around 6 pm this evening.

This model confirms my suspicion that perhaps the above mentioned area today would have a better chance for a severe thunderstorm.  With that said, we should all check back in from time to time today.

The HRRR model also shows a line of storms tonight.  This line could produce severe weather, as well.

Remember, severe weather is defined as 58 mph winds, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.  That is the National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

 

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region.  These are averages.

Complicated forecast for the next 48 hours.  We will have a series of disturbances move through the area.  Each one could trigger thunderstorms.

Closely monitor weather updates as we move forward.

Wednesday – A mix of sun and clouds.  A chance for a thunderstorm.  If storms form then they could produce gusty winds, heavy rain, lightning, and even hail.  High temperatures well into the 70’s.  South winds at 10-15 mph and gusty.   My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B in case storms form.  Tough forecast today.  Low confidence.

Morning School Bus Stop Weather –  Some clouds.  A chance for a thunderstorm.  Breezy at times.  Mild with temperatures in the 60’s
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds.  A chance for a thunderstorm.  Breezy at times.  Mild with temperatures into the 70’s

Wednesday night –  A chance for thunderstorms.  If storms form then they could be heavy.  Low temperatures in the 60’s.  South winds at 10-15 mph.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B in case storms form.

Thursday – Partly sunny.  Windy at times.  A chance for thunderstorms.  We may have one round in the morning then the squall line later in the day/evening.  Storms that form could be heavy.  Highs well into the 70’s.  South winds at 10-25 mph and gusty.    My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is MEDIUM
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Thursday night – A squall line.  Severe storms possible.  Mild.  Windy at times.  Turning colder with temperatures falling into the 40’s across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (behind the cold front).  Falling into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s elsewhere.  Windy with the front.  Winds may gust above 30 mph at times.   My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  HIGH
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Friday – Partly sunny and cooler.  Highs only in the 60’s.  Morning temperatures will start out in the 40’s across much of the area.  Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.   My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is HIGH
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  We should dry out by Friday. 

 

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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  More storms possible on Wednesday/Wednesday night/Thursday morning (not a sure bet)
2.  Squall line with possible severe weather Thursday afternoon (late) into Thursday night
3.  Heavy rain event possible Sunday night into at least Monday night.
4.  Active weeks ahead of us.

Complicated weather forecast for today through Thursday.  I have very little confidence in the timing of thunderstorms for Wednesday morning into Thursday morning.

I have high (near certain) confidence in a squall line moving through the area on Thursday evening and night.

Let’s try to break this down

We had very heavy storms in the region today.  Parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois picked up 1-3″ of rain.  Other areas picked up almost nothing.

Here is the radar estimated rainfall totals – the scale is on the right side of the image

You can click the image for a larger view.

A complex of storms formed on Monday night over our area.  Some reports of heavy rain, small hail, and a lot of lightning.  That complex of storms moved off fairly early in the day on Tuesday.

A second line of storms came in from the St Louis area on Tuesday morning.  Models handled that storm complex quite well.  I was surprised, however,  just how long it hung around into the late afternoon hours.

Large hail fell over a number of counties near St Louis.  Hail up to the size of golf balls.  Those storms moved into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the mid-morning hours into the early afternoon hours.  They then spread into southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky.

Here are a couple of photos from Missouri.  The hail storms were quite impressive.

 

 

The storms produced what likely was a tornado in southwest Indiana.  Just one more reason that you will rarely hear me say the tornado threat is zero.

Here is a radar view of that storm in southwest Indiana earlier on Tuesday afternoon.  You can clearly see the hook.

Some damage occurred with the storm.  The NWS will have to investigate to determine a damage path and intensity (if it was a tornado).

 

Now, moving forward

We have a few disturbances that will move through the area between now and Thursday afternoon.  Each one of these disturbances could produce showers and heavy thunderstorms.  The atmosphere is juiced up and primed for storms.

If storms do form then they could produce a lot of rain in a short amount of time.  Much like what happened today in the region.  Feast or famine.  Some of you will miss out on the big rain totals and others will have gully washers.

One round of storms may move back into the region on Wednesday morning (early).  This would move in from Missouri.  An area of storms is forecast to form over eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri on Tuesday night.  The area of thunderstorms will move east.  If it can hold together then it would reach our region on Wednesday morning.

Another round of storms is possible on Wednesday afternoon during the heat of the day.  Low confidence in this happening.  Part of the afternoon storms will depend on whether or not the morning storms occur.  This is not a clear cut forecast.

We then have another disturbance that moves into the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  This also could produce heavy storms.

Here is the future-cast SATELLITE view.  It shows cold cloud tops over eastern Missouri and southern Illinois on Wednesday evening.  That means thunderstorms.  IF this model is correct.  Image is from weatherbell.com

The red colors represent tall thunderstorms.  Thunderstorm tops.

Finally, the cold front arrives on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.  This front will sweep through the area with a squall line.  A squall line is a solid line of thunderstorms.  It can extend for hundreds of miles in length.

The line of storms on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night could produce damaging winds and hail.  Isolated tornado risk, as well.  Closely monitor weather updates.

Let’s look at the high resolution WRF model and how it depicts the squall line on Thursday evening.  This is from weatherbell.com and you can click the image to enlarge it

This is around 3 pm on Thursday afternoon.

See the thin line from Illinois back into southwest Missouri?  That is along the cold front.  That is the beginning of the squall line.  I suspect we will have a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch covering much of the region on Thursday afternoon and night.  Watches may line up from northern Illinois all the way back into Arkansas.

This is around 7 pm on Thursday evening.  You can see the line has increased a bit in intensity.  Now, some of this intensity will depend on what happens on Thursday morning.  How unstable will the atmosphere be on Thursday afternoon?  That remains a question on the table.

There could also be some thunderstorms well ahead of the line.  Data keeps indicating this as a possibility.  That would also cut down on instability for the main line.  Lot of questions remain on how intense the line will be once it arrives in my forecast counties.

Then around 9 pm (below) on Thursday evening – this is the future-cast radar view.  Strong line of thunderstorms, some likely severe.

Then later on Thursday night around 11 pm – 1 am.  The line is moving off to the east.  It should start to weaken as the night wears on.  But, watches are possible fairly far east into Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and even southward.

 

Shear values with this system indicate that tornadoes can’t be ruled out within the squall line.  EHI values of 2 to 4+ are indicated on soundings.

PWAT values will also be high.  That means heavy rain will occur as the storms sweep east.  The good news is that it should move along quickly.

Let’s look at what the satellite might look like as the front goes through.  You can see the thunderstorm tops (red colors – very cold cloud tops)

The satellite view around 7 pm on Thursday night shows the line broken.  The severe weather risk goes up if the line is not solid.  Something to consider and monitor.

Satellite view a few hours later.  The line matures a bit.  Notice how long this line is.  It extends from Michigan all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.

The sounding for southwest Illinois on Thursday evening shows decent EHI values. Lift index of -6

PWAT values in front of the cold front.  They are high.  Sufficient for heavy rain as the line moves through the area.  PWAT values are used to measure moisture in the atmosphere.  When I see high numbers then I become concerned about heavy downpours.

Once the front pushes through the area then temperatures will quickly fall into the 40’s.

Here is how the temperature forecast looks for Thursday night – you can track the front via the falling temperatures.  Images from weatherbell.com

This is the 7 pm temperature forecast map.  Note the warm temperatures in our area.  Colder air behind the front.

This is the temperature map for 10 pm Thursday night.  You can see the colder air pushing eastward.

Then by 12 am to 1 am on Friday morning.

Another large storm system moves into our region on Sunday night into Monday night.  Heavy rain possible.

 

Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

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Thunderstorms.  We may see a few storms today and tonight (Wednesday).  If storms do form then they could produce heavy downpours, lightning, hail, and gusty winds.  The atmosphere will be unstable today.  If storms form then they could become severe with high winds and hail.

If there were to be severe storms today then northwest parts of the area would be of greater risk.  Elsewhere, monitor updates.

I am concerned about severe storms on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.  A squall line will form over Illinois and Missouri and sweep eastward through our region.  All modes of severe weather will be possible with this event.  Closely monitor the latest information.

Heavy rain and storms on Sunday night into Monday/Monday night.  Active pattern unfolding for the coming weeks.

Here is the Wednesday severe weather threat graphic.  This runs through Wednesday night.  I will update this graphic on Wednesday morning (if need be)

And, the image below is the Thursday threat graphic.  I am more concerned about Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.  Severe storms are a good bet over parts of our region.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Rivers are on the rise again.  Additional heavy rain over the coming 2-3 weeks could cause problems.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

 

The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast

Wild card in this forecast – The coverage of thunderstorm activity over the region today and tonight.  Appears the best chances will be over northwest counties of southeast Missouri and into parts of southern Illinois.

I don’t have a lot of confidence in how the forecast unfolds today and tonight.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level is FOUR for today and tonight (Wednesday).  Mostly northern half of the region.  Reynolds County, Missouri towards Franklin County, Illinois (north and west of that line).  South of that line would be a level THREE

The level is THREE for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

 

 

And for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night the level is THREE

 

 

 

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Data isn’t exactly in agreement as to how much rain will fall at any given spots.  These thunderstorms can drop 1-2″ in an hour.  We saw that happen on Tuesday.

Perhaps the best chance for heavy rain totals on Wednesday into early Thursday morning would be the western half of the region.  This would include southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Confidence decreases east of there.

Another round of widespread heavy showers and storms will push into the region during the day on Thursday and then again with the cold front on Thursday evening into Friday morning.  Rainfall totals of 1-2″ will be possible with locally much higher amounts.

If storms train over the same areas then rainfall totals could exceed 2″.  Again, we saw that happen on Tuesday with the west to east storms over eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, Indiana, and northwest Kentucky.

Bottom line – rainfall totals will vary quite a bit.

Another heavy rain event is likely/near certain on Sunday night into at least Monday/Monday night.

This first graphic is the rainfall from now through Friday

This next graphic is the rainfall from now through Monday.  Not good news.

 

 

This section of the blog is speculative forecast information.  Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation.  Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.

The main concern in the long term is stormy weather!  The long range charts show numerous opportunities for heavy rain and thunderstorms.  A bit concerning.  I will become increasing worried about the possibility of flooding along rivers if this pattern continues.  Secondary concern will be severe weather.  We are moving into the peak time of the year for severe storms.

The immediate concern will be Sunday evening into at least Monday night or Tuesday.  Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible.  I can’t rule out severe weather.

Rainfall totals could be measured in the inches from this event.  Monitor updates.  No rest for the weather weary!

The GFS model shows day after day of high PWAT values.  This is a concern.  If we have a trigger for thunderstorms then we could see a lot of rain next week.  IF the GFS model is correct.

This is the Sunday afternoon PWAT chart

Then by Monday night – still high numbers

Then by Wednesday morning.  Numbers are still high.

Then by Thursday morning – still high numbers.

Then by Friday morning…still high.

What does all of that mean?

When a forecaster sees sustained high PWAT values it is a red flag for heavy rain.  I do not like to see days of high numbers.  Historically that means a lot of rain.  If we have a trigger – a storm system near the region to help produce thunderstorms.

Monitor updates.

 

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.  Just need to finish two Spanish classes!

I am a member of the American Meteorological Society.  I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.  And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog

 

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