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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Monday night – There is a 70% chance for a freeze in the freeze warning zone. There is a 40% chance for a frost/freeze outside the warning zone over northern parts of southeast Missouri, the rest of southern Illinois, and the rest of western Kentucky.
Tuesday night – Frost is not anticipated
Wednesday night – Not concerned about frost.
Thursday night – Small chance for frost.
Friday night – Decent shot at freezing temperatures in the region. Monitor updates.
Saturday night – Frost is not anticipated.
Monday Night – Mostly clear and cold. Frost and or freeze possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s. Upper 20s possible in the freeze warning zone. See graphic further down.
Winds: Light winds from the north/northeast at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost and/or freeze possible.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. Perhaps a few afternoon clouds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Winds: Light and variable winds at 4-8 mph. Winds becoming mostly east and northeast during the morning and then mostly east/southeast in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday Night – Increasing clouds. Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle to upper 40s.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Becoming south/southeast. Gusts to 16 mph after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated. If the front advances quicker than anticipated then I will have to increase the rain chances a bit.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways if showers do develop.
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A chance for showers and some thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 35 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain possible
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather risk is small.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms early in the night. Then a chance for a shower and partly cloudy after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40s.
Winds: Winds becoming north and northwest at 8-16 mph early and 5-10 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers possible
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways if showers do develop.
Thursday – Mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range. Warmer west vs east in the region. Southeast Missouri should be the warmest.
Winds: West winds becoming northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if anything at all.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Maybe mixed with snow.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Winds becoming northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Nothing significant
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy. Cool. A shower possible. Especially over Illinois and Kentucky.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Friday Night – Clearing. Frost or freeze possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s
Winds: Winds becoming calm to 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze possible.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Cool start to the day. Perhaps partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph during the morning becoming southerly in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze early in the morning will be possible.
Saturday Night – Some clouds. Not as cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44 to 48 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Some clouds. Warmer. Watching another system for rain and storms. Perhaps centered on Monday/Tuesday. Will have to see how quickly it moves into the region.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Freeze warning for Monday night and Tuesday morning
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Freeze warning for parts of the region on Monday night and Tuesday morning. See graphic.
- Tuesday won’t be too bad. Coolish.
- Rain chances increase on Wednesday
- Another sharp cold snap Friday night/Saturday morning with frost/freeze chances returning
The main weather story in the short range will be cold temperatures on Monday night and Tuesday morning. A freeze warning has been issued for portions of the region. Please see the graphic (above). Outside of the freeze warning temperatures could still dip below freezing for a short period of time tonight and Tuesday morning. A light frost can’t be ruled out, as well. Winds may help our cause when it comes to frost. Winds typically help mitigate frost chances.
Here is an animation of expected temperatures for tonight. Temperatures may be a few degrees too cold on this animation for west Kentucky. But, you get the general idea. I suspect the far western seven counties will range from 34-38. Somewhere in there. Isolated cold spots can occur in valleys.
Areas sheltered from the wind would have the better chances for frost. And, there are always cold favored areas in valleys. Most of you know who you are. You are typically several degrees colder than surrounding areas.
Tuesday will deliver dry conditions. A little on the cool side, but not too bad.
Late Tuesday night and Wednesday our next weather maker approaches from the west and northwest. A cold front will push into the area and provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall with this event appears light. Ranging from 0.05″ – 0.40″. Not much.
Gusty winds are possible on Wednesday as the low level jet kicks up. And, our system approaches.
Precipitation comes to an end on Wednesday night.
Let’s look at the future-cast radar for Wednesday. These images are from weatherbell.com
This first image is what radar MIGHT look like around 7 pm Wednesday. You can see a band of showers along the cold front. The precipitation is pushing eastward.
This next image is for 10 am on Wednesday.
This next image is for 1 pm on Wednesday
This next image is for 4 pm on Wednesday
This next image is for 7 pm on Wednesday evening
Again, rainfall totals will probably be light with this event.
Let’s take a look at the CAPE numbers for Wednesday. WRF model does show some CAPE. CAPE is basically energy available for thunderstorms. I can’t rule out some storms on Wednesday. The severe weather risk looks small. Perhaps not zero, but small. I will update again with fresh information on Tuesday afternoon.
Thursday and Friday will deliver some clouds. Perhaps a few light showers on Thursday night and Friday morning. Right now the chances appear low and totals would be very light. A cold front pushes through the area on Friday and Friday night. This will usher in colder air. Seems we can not shake the cold shots.
Colder air returns on Friday night and Saturday. Date indicates 20s and 30s possible. We might have to endure another frost advisory or freeze warning. If you have sensitive vegetation then monitor updates. It could be quite cold on Saturday morning.
Another storm system approaches early next week with additional shower and thunderstorm chances. That system might have a little more instability to work with.
The GFS guidance indicates additional cold shots next week. Maybe spring will settle in eventually.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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No thunderstorms expected through Tuesday. Small chance late Tuesday night for lightning. Better chances on Wednesday.
Level ONE/TWO threat for storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Lightning would be the main concern. Severe weather risk is small. Perhaps not zero, but small.
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Updated wind direction and speed. Updated temperatures. Updated thunderstorm wording for Wednesday.
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Monday night – There is a 60%-70% chance for frost and/or a freeze in the freeze warning zone. Coldest locations will likely be southwest Illinois and northwest Kentucky. 40% chance for frost or freeze elsewhere.
Tuesday night – Frost is not anticipated
Wednesday night – Not concerned about frost.
Thursday night – Frost is possible.
Friday night – Frost and/or freeze will be possible.
Saturday night – Frost is not anticipated
Sunday night – Frost is not anticipated
Another frost or freeze is possible on Tuesday morning.
Coldest night of the upcoming week might be Friday night/Saturday morning. Another chance for frost/freeze during that time frame.
Thunderstorms on Wednesday. Lightning is the main concern. At this time the threat for severe storms appears very small.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Best chance on Wednesday. Some light showers possible Thursday and Friday.
Rainfall totals on Wednesday might range from 0.05″-0.30″. Right now this does not look like a significant rain event.
Here are the current rainfall totals for the upcoming week. Subject to changes. Thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
