April 4, 2019. Non-subscribers update.

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

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Storm tracking tools. Radars, lightning, satellite. (I moved this to the bottom)
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Today: No. A few lightning strikes are possible today.
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Tomorrow: No. Monitor Sunday’s outlook. A few strong storms are possible.

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Today through Saturday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today (Thursday). I am monitoring the risk of lightning Saturday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Sunday through Wednesday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday night into Sunday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. Some strong storms are possible on Sunday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 4, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Increasing coverage west to east through the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 90% Southeast MO 90% IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread showers in the region. Spotty, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Activity will diminish as we move later into Thursday night. Ending west to east.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Precipitation will taper west to east as we move through the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the evening. Rain will end west to east overnight.
Sunset: 7:20 PM
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 6:48 PM

April 6, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy during the morning. A few patches of sunshine may develop as the day wears on. Plan on clouds. High temperatures on Friday will be partly dependent on cloud cover. Keep this in mind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Evening clouds. Some clearing overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Winds becoming northeast and eventually east at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:21 PM
Moonrise: 7:05 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 7:47 PM

April 7, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible during the afternoon over southeast Missouri and the Bootheel. Lesser chances across the rest of the area. Warm.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 72° to 74° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast during the morning at 4 to 8 mph. Winds increasing during the afternoon from the southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None during the morning. Isolated during the afternoon over southeast Missouri and the Bootheel. Lesser chances across the rest of the area.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? For most of the area, none. A few wet roadways possible late in the day over southeast Missouri and the Bootheel. Lesser chances across the rest of the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Thickening clouds. Showers and thunderstorms developing from the southwest. A few storms could be intense.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Increasing coverage overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce high winds and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars during the evening hours.
Sunset: 7:22 PM
Moonrise: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 8:47 PM

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Sunday: Cloudy. A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong. Mild. Highs in the lower to middle 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. South and southwest wind 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

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Monday: Cloudy. A remaining shower is possible. Mild. Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Lows in the lower 50’s. West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph

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Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. Highs in the lower 70’s. Lows in the lower to middle 50’s. North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Lightning is possible today.

Saturday through Tuesday: Thunderstorms are again possible Saturday night and Sunday. Strong storms are possible Saturday night and Sunday. A few storms could produce strong winds and hail. Monitor updates, as always.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

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Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Mild weather into the middle of next week.
Rain chances today and this evening.
Additional rain chances Saturday night into early next week.
A few strong thunderstorms mixed in.
Another system late next week could deliver thunderstorms and cooler air.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I increased wording on Saturday night/Sunday’s thunderstorm chances. A few storms could be strong to severe. Monitor updates.

The spring and summer outlooks have been updated. Scroll towards the bottom of the page to see those.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

No. Lightning is possible today and this evening.

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Forecast discussion.

If you have weekend plans then monitor updates concerning the Saturday night and Sunday time-frame.

There are some concerns that a few storms could be intense on Saturday night and Sunday. Monitor updates.

Today into Saturday.

Rain showers have spread back into the area. Check your local city-view radars. Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

This disturbance will be in and out of here fairly rapidly.

Rain chances will diminish as we move deeper into tonight.

A few rumbles of thunder will be possible today. The good news is that no severe weather is anticipated.

Rainfall totals for this event will range from 0.25″ to 0.50″.

Clouds may linger into Friday morning. There is some concern about an inversion over the region tomorrow.

An inversion is a warm layer of air aloft. This can sometimes trap clouds and slow clearing.

I mentioned this at the top of the page. I also mentioned patchy drizzle where clouds are thicker.

The clouds should thin on Friday afternoon with sky conditions becoming a mix of sun and clouds.

Temperatures on Friday will feel like spring. Widespread upper 60’s to lower 70’s.

Friday night into Saturday should be dry.

Saturday night into early next week.

Another cold front will approach the region Saturday night into Sunday night.

I did include the mention of a few afternoon rain showers across southeast Missouri and the Missouri Bootheel by late Saturday afternoon.

I believe most of us will remain dry through the daylight hours.

If the system speeds up slightly then that would change. For now, I would not cancel or change any Saturday plans. Monitor updates.

Rain chances ramp up Saturday night into Sunday night. The peak rain coverage will likely be on Sunday.

Temperatures will be in the 70’s both Saturday and Sunday.

A few thunderstorms are anticipated with this system, as well. I am closely monitoring the severe weather risk. A few storms could be intense. Monitor updates, as always. It is that time of the year.

Clouds and showers may linger into Monday.

The good news is that this cold front will not usher in another frost or freeze.

Warmer than normal weather will continue into the middle of next week.

I am watching another cool snap as we move towards the middle of the month. That cooler air may be ushered in with strong thunderstorms. For now, I am monitoring next Thursday and Friday. Monitor updates.

I am also monitoring the week of the 24th for a larger system. Long way to go before the details are worked out.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Rain showers will be with us today.

A few thunderstorms are possible with this system, as well. Not anticipating severe weather locally.

Here is the Hrrr model.

Timestamp upper left.

NAM 3K model.

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge.

Here is the future-cast radar for the Saturday night into Monday event. Again, there are some timing differences in the different model suites.

The GFS model (below) lingers rain into early next week. There are some questions about that subject, as well.

Again, for now, I have the greatest chance of rain arriving Saturday night into Sunday night. Beyond Sunday night, I will monitor trends in guidance.

GFS model

The NAM also is showing the weekend system.

Sunday may not be a wash-out. Plan on some showers and locally heavy thunderstorms from time to time.

Looking beyond the weekend system, we see another chance of showers and thunderstorms next Thursday or Friday. If dew points rise then we could have some locally heavy storms.

A bit early to make a call on severe weather.

This is the system that I am monitoring.

Date-stamp upper left.

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You can see on the GFS where above normal temperatures occur ahead of the system and then cooler behind it.

Red is above and blue is below normal temperatures.

Remember, low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. That means that a low passing to our northwest would pull warmer air into our region.

Then, as the system passes, cooler air arrives behind it.

Ahead of it.

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Behind it

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Dates to monitor for precipitation.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

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WeatherBrains Episode 689

Tonight’s WeatherBrains is a special show regarding the NWS’s Hazard Simplification Program or “Haz Simp”. This program has been around for a couple of years and is designed to potentially redesign and reinvigorate the National Weather Service Watch/Warning/Advisory system.

Our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a Social Science Researcher and Project Manager for Haz Simp along with Eli Jacks of the NWS. Her background is in meteorology, but her PhD program is interdisciplinary with a focus on sociology of disasters and risk communication. Danielle Nagele, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Guest Panelist this week is soon-to-be graduating meteorology student from the University of Oklahoma. Jordan Overton, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: