Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 4, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Wintry weather ahead of us.

 

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

For $3 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

  1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
  2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
  3.  Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
  4.  AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
  5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
  7.  Long-range weather videos
  8.  Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
  9.  Monthly outlooks.
  10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

 

 

April 4, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Colder.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50      IL ~  44 to 50         KY ~ 48 to 52       TN ~  50 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: North and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:35 AM 

 

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cold.  Frost or freeze likely.  Mostly clear.  Locally colder temperatures than shown.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 26 to 32       IL ~ 26 to 32     KY ~  28 to 32       TN ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and/or freeze possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:19

 

April 5, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:   Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 55     IL ~ 54 to 58         KY ~ 55 to 60       TN ~  56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:34 AM 

 

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of showers.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 42       IL ~ 36 to 42      KY ~  38 to 42       TN ~ 38 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Most likely you will be okay.
Sunset: 7:20 PM

 

April 6, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:   Becoming cloudy.  Showers possible over southeast Missouri (mostly during the afternoon).  Rain will spread north and east through the region as the day wears on.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 59 (warmest Bootheel)      IL ~  55 to 60        KY ~ 56 to 62       TN ~  56 t0 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  50%       KY ~ 50%          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage Friday afternoon.
Winds: Variable at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM

 

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Rain.  Rain changing to freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  Some wintry precipitation accumulation possible.  It is too early to talk amounts.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  MO ~  26 to 32       IL ~ 26 to 32      KY ~  28 to 32       TN ~ 30 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%      IL ~  80%       KY ~  80%          TN ~  80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Winds:  Becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor wintry precipitation forecast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but let’s keep an eye on the track of the low pressure center.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunset: 7:21 PM

 

April 7, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:   Partly sunny.  Cool.  Morning showers or snow showers ending.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 34 to 40      IL ~  34 to 40         KY ~ 36 to 42       TN ~  38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely ending.
Winds: North at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor wintry precipitation forecasts.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
Sunrise: 6:31 AM 

 

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Colder. Hard freeze likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 22 to 26       IL ~ 22 to 26      KY ~  25 to 30     TN ~ 25 to 30
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and freeze conditions
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:22 PM

 

April 8, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny early.  Increasing clouds late.  A chance of an afternoon shower.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50      IL ~  44 to 48         KY ~ 46 to 52       TN ~  46 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to perhaps scattered late in the day.
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps afternoon wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:29 AM

 

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of rain or rain/snow mix.
Temperatures:  MO ~  34 to 38      IL ~ 34 to 38      KY ~ 36 to 40        TN ~ 38 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:23 PM

 

RAIN TOTALS

Let’s take a look at precipitation totals from Friday afternoon through Saturday.

We do not need more rain.

 

 

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Wednesday through Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Thursday night through Friday night:  Severe weather appears unlikely.

Saturday through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

Weather Highlights

  1. The weather will remain active
  2. Frost/freeze possible tonight and Thursday morning
  3. Rain changing to freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible Friday afternoon into Saturday
  4. Another precipitation event possible late Sunday into Monday

It was a wild Tuesday across the region.  We had numerous reports of hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Check out this hail photograph from Velvet Jones-Krueger.  This was west of Poplar Bluff, Missouri.

 

 

The National Weather Service will be surveying storm damage over the next few days.  If you know of any damage then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Be specific on the location of the damage and type of damage.

 

 

The heaviest damage cross portions of Williamson and Saline counties.  Numerous trees and structures were damaged.

Several tornadoes also likely struck southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.

Today will be quiet compared to the last 24 hours.  It will also be colder.

Frost of freeze conditions likely tonight across the area.  The NWS has issued some frost and/or freeze advisories/warnings.  Just because you are not in the advisory or warning does not mean you won’t have freezing temperatures.  They issue those based on vegetation growth.  Thus, northern counties may be excluded from those warning products.

Temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.  Cold for April.

Here is the GFS model guidance temperatures for Thursday morning at 7 AM.

 

 

The weather will remain quiet through Friday morning.

Temperatures Thursday night will likely dip into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.  Not quite as cold.

 

 

The weather goes downhill (how did I know you expected me to say that) Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

As hard as it is to believe we are talking about a possible winter storm.  I know, I know.  You don’t have to tell me!  Almost everyone is tired of the cold weather.

Precipitation should develop Friday afternoon and evening.  This precipitation will begin as rain.

Colder air will filter into the region as we move through Friday night.  The rain should change to freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  Some accumulation is possible.

Models have gone bonkers with this system.  Some of them are showing widespread 2″ to 8″ of snow across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and portions of western Kentucky.  They also show some frozen precipitation in northwest Tennessee.

It is a hard sell for me to jump on the model bandwagon when it comes to totals.  Let me keep an eye on guidance trends.

As we have witnessed over the last few events, air temperatures, road temperatures, and ground temperatures make it difficult for significant snow to accumulate.  Not impossible, but difficult.

Some accumulation of frozen precipitation will be possible.  How much remains a question.

Bottom line is that we need to monitor the Friday night/Saturday morning precipitation event.

Another round of rain or wintry mix (depending on your location in the region) will be possible Sunday afternoon into Monday.

No rest for the weary.

Let’s look at some model guidance.

This is the NAM future-cast radar for Friday/Friday night.  This is what radar may look like.  Again, this is just a model.

It is difficult to know how much snow will fall and exactly where.  Rain is more likely as you travel further south.  Snow is more likely as you travel north.

Blue is snow.  Purple is wintry mix.  Green, yellow, and orange would be rain (heavier rain would be the yellow/orange colors).

 

 

This is the GFS future-cast radar for Friday/Friday night.  This is what radar may look like.  Again, this is just a model.

This animation takes us through the Sunday and Monday event, as well.

Blue is snow.  Purple is a wintry mix.  Green, yellow, and orange would be rain (heavier rain would be the yellow/orange colors).

 

 

Freeze conditions are likely Saturday night.  Here is the GFS temperature forecast for 7 AM Sunday.

Temperatures will likely be colder than this.

 

 

I am not tracking severe weather through Monday.  That is the current good news.  We take what we can get.

 

 

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 637

Tonight, we have the author of the book  The Man Who Caught the Storm: The Life of Legendary Tornado Chaser Tim Samaras about the 2013 deadly El Reno, Oklahoma tornado.  He is a journalist who has written for Wire, Popular Mechanics and Texas Monthly.  Brantley Hargrove, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Possible severe weather on April 3rd across Mid-South and Ohio Valley/Squall line threat
  • E-mail segment from Aubrey
  • Possible snow in the mountains of East TN/NE Georgia this weekend
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

ANNOUNCEMENT!

 

I am working on a few new items for us.

As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.

There was never a plan.

All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.

From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.

We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.

Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.

Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.

Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.

That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.

Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.

Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.

It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.

Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.

Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.

That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.

About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.

The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.

Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.

Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.

Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.

I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.

Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.

Here is what we are going to bring you.

1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.

2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.

3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.

4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.

5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.

Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.

With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?

6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.

Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.

You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.

Subscribers will receive the following:

You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).

Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.

The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.

We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.

 

 

New schedule

 

Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.

Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on.  This one is called WeatherOne.  You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab.  Make sure WeatherOne is on (green).  Green is on.  Red is off.

 

 


We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

Comments are closed.