This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few remaining showers and storms. Rain ending from west to east. Cooler. Breezy, at times. Flooding will continue in areas that are already flooding. Major rises on rivers are anticipated over the coming days.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Winds becoming southwest and west behind the front at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Flooding will continue.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely. Small risk for severe storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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May 1, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds: West and southwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 2, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer. Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: West winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty storms possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 3, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Monitor flooding concerns.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Monitor flooding situation. More rain will not help the situation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Northeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning possible. Flooding possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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May 4, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 46 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: North winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Monitor flooding situation.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Chilly. Showers ending.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds: North winds 10 to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the flood situation.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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May 5, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: North winds 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small chance for isolated showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night: A cold front will enter the region on Sunday and Sunday night. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Severe weather is possible. Monitor updates.
Monday through Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Tuesday night a warm front nears the region. We could have a few thunderstorms. No severe weather anticipated.
Wednesday and Thursday: Some thunderstorms are possible. Locally heavy rain is the main concern. Most likely lightning will be limited.
Friday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Weather analysis for the next few days:
Life threatening flash flooding is ongoing across portions of Missouri and Illinois. Some areas picked up 6 to 12+ inches of rain since Friday. Significant flooding is occurring.
Flooding will continue for days to come. Major to extreme rises on area rivers are anticipated. Near record levels along portions of the Mississippi. Please see the latest NWS lake and river stage forecasts. Be prepared to evacuate if you live in areas that have flooded in 1993 and 2016.
Extreme crests are forecasts for some of the smaller rivers, as well. Current River will smash their old record river stage. Major flooding ongoing in many areas.
Avoid flooded roadways. Make sure children do not play in flood waters. I know this sounds basic, but it happens.
Calm weather is forecast (after some Sunday evening storms) through Tuesday.
Our next storm system could bring heavy rain by Wednesday and Thursday. Currently, some of the models are forecasting one to three inches of rain. This will cause additional flooding concerns.
The great news is that we should avoid severe thunderstorms. As always, monitor updates moving forward.
The area of low pressure should pass to our south and east. That places us on the cool side of the storm. If this was winter then we would be looking at a significant winter storm. It is May, thus cold rain will be the forecast.
Highs on Thursday may struggle to get out of the 40’s. Yes, you heard that right.
Here are some model forecast numbers for rainfall later this week. Again, these are models and they are never exactly right.
You get the general idea. More rain is coming. Most likely totals will be in the one to two inch range. I can’t rule out higher, but still a few days to iron out the details.
and GEM model
Chilly May weather? Looks that way.
High temperatures on Thursday
Low temperatures on Friday
Low temperatures on Saturday
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
