Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 3, 2026: Showers and thunderstorms. Drying out on Easter Sunday.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

April 3rd to April 9th

Current risk: LOW

Current confidence level: MEDIUM.

Comments: At this time, the tornado risk appears low today through Saturday evening.  A few storms are anticipated, but likely not severe enough to produce tornadoes.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.   Scattered lightning is possible today through Saturday evening.

2.  Are organized severe thunderstorms. POSSIBLE.   A few storms today into Saturday could be strong.  There is a low risk of a storm triggering a severe thunderstorm warning.  The primary concern would be gusty wind and small hail.

3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.    

5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.   

6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO 

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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

There is a low risk of a few storms becoming severe this afternoon and night.  Overall, the risk is low at any given location.

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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

A few storms could produce strong wind gusts and small hail this afternoon and tonight.  Another chance on Saturday as the cold front moves through the region.

At this time, the risk of severe weather appears limited.

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The severe weather threat is minimal today through Saturday.  The chance of actual severe weather is low.

Here is that outlook from the Storm Prediction Center/NWS.

The yellow zone is a level two out of five risk.  The scale ranges from one to five.  One being the lowest severe threat.

The yellow zone is currently not in our region.

The dark green zone is a level one severe weather risk.  We do have our northern counties in a low level one risk.  Overall, the risk is small.

The light green zone is where storms are possible, but will likely remain below severe levels.

This is for this afternoon and night.

Again, the top of the page has the graphic from the NWS, as well.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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And here is tomorrow’s outlook.

A small portion of our region is in the dark green.  Again, the risk is low.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

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This morning


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This afternoon


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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.


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My daily video
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Forecast discussion

  •  A chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.
  •  Peak chances will likely be today through Saturday night.
  •  Easter Sunday will likely be dry and cool.  Damp ground conditions from Saturday’s rain.
  •  Patchy light frost is possible on Monday morning.  Many areas likely won’t have frost, but a few spots may.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

 Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast into Saturday evening.

The bulk of the rain event will be late tonight and tomorrow.

I have been a bit disappointed by this week’s rain totals, thus far.   Some areas have received over an inch, but most areas have not.

Let’s see how tomorrow goes and then judge the final outcome.  We could still reach the one-inch mark.  Locally higher for some.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  This is the 4 AM readings.

Once again, it is a mild morning across the region. Some areas are already hitting the 70-degree mark.

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Easter Sunday will be cooler.  It will be dry with showers ending before sunrise.  The ground will be damp.  Breezy, at times.  That will make it feel a bit cooler.

Highs will be in the fifities and sixties.

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Droughts are hard to break.  This week is proving that.

Let’s look at the latest drought monitor maps.  Drought is expanding and strengthening.

Double-click each image to enlarge it.

As you can see, most of our region is under some type of drought.  A small part of eastern Missouri into west-central Illinois is not in drought.

Some of our region is now in severe drought, again.

This is a very large portion of the country in drought, and for this time period, it beats April 1st of 2012.

That is concerning.  Let’s hope the pattern breaks.

Long-range forecasting is complicated, at best.  There are signals for a wetter pattern over the coming month.   We have had the signal over the past few weeks, and some rain has fallen. Just not enough.

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On-and-off showers and thunderstorms will be with us into Saturday night.  Ending before sunrise on Sunday.

See the video and the graphics above and below for the rain chances for each 12-hour period.

As mentioned above, the rain has underperformed, thus far.

How much additional rain is anticipated?

Today through late Saturday night will deliver another inch of rain to most of the region.  There is hope that some areas will pick up more than an inch.  Thunderstorms will enhance totals in some areas.  I am hoping many areas receive at least an inch, but as mentioned over the last few days, our eastern counties may struggle to reach that amount.   Let’s see how it goes.

Some of you have already received more than 1.00″.  Meanwhile, others have received no measurable rain.

Peak rain days were forecast to be tonight through Saturday evening.  Rain will end west to east Saturday night.

There is some indication that my eastern counties may receive less than one inch.  That would be Owensboro south to LBL and then eastward from there.

There is an 70% chance of an additional one inch of rain.  The bulk of that is falling late tonight into Saturday evening.

There is a 10% chance that totals will exceed two inches in some locations.  That number has come down since some rain fell over the last few days.

Speaking of rainfall.

Here is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast

Notice the area of lower totals over portions of Kentucky and Tennessee (lower as you travel eastward).

Double-click the graphics to enlarge them.

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Here is the latest EC AI model rainfall totals.  This is a machine learning model.

Double-click the graphics to enlarge them.

The NOAA/WPC forecast is a bit higher than the EC AI model.

Again, notice the lower area over portions of southeast Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.  The bootheel, as well.

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Easter Sunday will be dry (a slight chance of a shower before sunrise).  It will be cooler.  The ground will likely still be damp or wet from Saturday’s showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday’s high temperatures.  They did inch up just a tad (couple of degrees).  The wind will make it feel cooler.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

Western view

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It will be cool on Sunday night.  Patchy light frost is possible.  Many areas will not see frost.

Monday morning lows are shown on the graphics below.

Conditions will be marginal for frost to form.  It does not appear to be a hard freeze or heavy frost.

Double-click images to enlarge them.

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Let’s take a look at the twelve-hour rainfall probabilities.  What is the % chance of showers and thunderstorms?

Keep in mind, this is a series of systems.  Rain coverage will ebb and flow.

Higher during some twelve-hour periods and lower during some twelve-hour periods.

There were some adjustments in these maps over the last 24 hours.

What is the % chance of showers and thunderstorms?

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Friday 7 AM to 7 PM

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Friday night 7 PM to Saturday 7 AM

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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Saturday 7 AM to 7 PM

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Saturday night 7 PM to Sunday 7 AM

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Sunday 7 AM to 7 PM

Sunday should be dry.  Perhaps a shower before sunrise over our far eastern counties.

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Monday through Wednesday of next week should be dry.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC Model

This shows you the Saturday and Sunday time frame.  The next two animations are for today onward.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Hrrr Model

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

NAM 3K Model

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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