April 3, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

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Today: No.
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Tomorrow: No.

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Today through Friday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monitoring late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon for lightning.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Saturday through Tuesday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday night into Sunday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Some strong storms are possible either Saturday night or Sunday (most likely Sunday). For now, the severe weather risk appears fairly low. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 3, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warmer.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 during the afternoon. Slightly higher gusts over southeast Missouri will be possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of mainly late night scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The greatest coverage will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Lesser chances as you continue to move east.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 48° to 50° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. The greatest coverage will likely be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Moving west to east overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunset: 7:19 PM
Moonrise: 6:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:51 PM

April 4, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. A thunderstorm is possible, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 63° to 64° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Activity will diminish as we move later into Thursday night. Ending west to east.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Precipitation will taper west to east as we move through the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the evening. Rain will end west to east overnight.
Sunset: 7:20 PM
Moonrise: 6:38 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 6:48 PM

April 5, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. An inversion aloft could trap clouds and make them linger longer. Where this occurs you could also have some patches of drizzle. High temperatures on Friday will be partly dependent on cloud cover. Keep this in mind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 72° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 65° to 68° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:21 PM
Moonrise: 7:05 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 7:47 PM

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Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds during the day. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. I am monitoring Saturday afternoon for a few showers. over southeast Missouri. More likely, the bulk of this system holds off until Saturday night into Sunday night. Mild. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm Saturday night (50%). Highs in the lower 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. South and southeast wind at 10 to 20 mph.
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Sunday: Mild. Cloudy with showers and some thunderstorms likely (70% chance). Showers and storm chances continue into Sunday night (50%). Highs in the middle 70’s. Lows in the upper 50’s. South and southeast at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph

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Monday: Cloudy. A shower is possible. Highs in the lower 70’s. Lows in the middle 50’s. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: No severe weather. Lightning is possible late tonight and on Thursday.

Friday through Monday: Thunderstorms are again possible Saturday night and Sunday. For now, the severe weather risk appears low. Monitor updates, as always.

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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Enjoy today’s temperatures! A quiet day ahead.
Rain chances ramp up again by tonight into Thursday.
Monitoring another chance of rain and storms by late in the weekend.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I bumped temperatures up a tad on Friday.

The spring and summer outlooks have been updated. Scroll towards the bottom of the page to see those.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

No.

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Forecast discussion.

I hope you are able to get out and enjoy Wednesday’s weather. Temperatures will be in the 60’s with quite a bit of sunshine.

We are going to see an increase in clouds as we move through Wednesday. This is the signal for our next weather-maker that arrives tonight into Thursday.

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will develop later Wednesday night across southeast Missouri. The rain will then spread eastward on Thursday.

I am forecasting 0.25″ to 0.50″ of rain.

Lightning will be the main concern with any thunderstorm activity. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern with this event. That is good news.

The rain will come to an end on Thursday evening and night. It will end west to east.

Thankfully, this cold front is not nearly as strong as some of the recent ones. Temperatures Thursday night into the weekend will remain well above freezing. No chance of another frost or freeze through at least Tuesday.

Warmer weather will arrive by Friday and that will take us into the rest of the weekend.

I am monitoring cloud cover on Friday. It is possible that clouds linger a bit longer Friday. There could even be some drizzle over our far eastern counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky).

Thicker clouds on Friday could hold temperatures down by several degrees.

Widespread upper 60’s to middle 70’s are forecast across the region all three days.

Here is what the GFS guidance is showing for high temperatures on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Friday
Friday’s highs will depend on cloud cover. Keep that in mind. If clouds are thicker then temperatures will be slower to rise.

Saturday

Sunday

The bad news is that the warmer temperatures will also bring rain chances.

The greatest chance of rain will be Saturday night into Sunday night.

Some of the guidance brings rain into the region during the day on Saturday. For now, I have pushed the higher rain chances off until Saturday night and especially Sunday/Sunday night.

Monitor updates if you have outdoor plans on Saturday. If the system speeds up a bit then rain chances would increase earlier in the day.

Thunderstorms are likely with the weekend event. For now, the main concern appears to be lightning and locally heavy rain. Rain totals between Saturday and Tuesday could exceed an inch.

Here is the EC model guidance. This map shows rain totals through early next week.

Here is the GFS model guidance. Some differences. GFS is heavier.

The threat of severe weather may not be zero on Sunday/Sunday night. At the same time, it does not appear to be a large threat, either. I will be monitoring trends in guidance.

Unsettled weather may linger into Monday and Tuesday. I mentioned a few showers during this time-frame, as well.

For now, I am not tracking any frost or freeze chances.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

You can expect rain showers to increase by Wednesday night and linger into at least Thursday afternoon. Some showers will likely linger into Thursday night. Ending west to east.

A few thunderstorms are possible with this system, as well. Not anticipating severe weather locally.

Here is the NAM model.

Timestamp upper left.

Here is the GFS future-cast radar.

The GFS is lower resolution than the NAM model. The GFS usually will show a broader coverage

Timestamp upper left. Click to enlarge.

Here is the future-cast radar for the Saturday night into Monday event. Again, there are some timing differences in the different model suites.

The GFS model (below) lingers rain into early next week. There are some questions about that subject, as well.

Again, for now, I have the greatest chance of rain arriving Saturday night into Sunday night. Beyond Sunday night, I will monitor trends in guidance.

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.