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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense early in the evening.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the night. Then scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium to high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? The atmosphere will be unstable on Tuesday night. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps a few strong storms with gusty winds and hail. Low tornado risk.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 50%-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. One round in the morning and a second round in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 78 to 82 (cloud cover could keep temps down a bit. More sun and it will be warmer)
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Strong winds near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for backup.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could become severe.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty winds. Strong storms possible. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Mostly Cloudy. A 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. If storms do form then they could be intense.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (especially before 9 pm)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Strong storms.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorm risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Otherwise, none.
Thursday Night – Partly Cloudy. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy fog. Otherwise, none.
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Increasing clouds through the day. Showers and thunderstorms developing over southeast Missouri and spreading eastward late in the day.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
Winds: East and northeast at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southeast towards evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% late in the afternoon. Increasing towards evening. Precipitation arrives first over southeast Missouri. It then spreads eastward.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars late in the afternoon. Precipitation may develop in the afternoon and evening.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Friday Night – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% before 10 pm and then 60% after 10 pm.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Small chance for hail.
Saturday – A good chance for thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense, especially late in the day into the evening hours. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
Winds: South at 8-16 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Lightning, locally heavy rain. Some risk for intense storms.
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some intense storms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms ending early in the day. Becoming partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60% early in the day
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be rain to deal with early in the day. We should be drying out as the day wears on.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy fog.
Monday – Patchy morning fog possible. Mostly sunny, otherwise.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 70s
Winds: North at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy morning fog
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Unsettled weather pattern
- Storm chances on Wednesday
- Another round of storms this weekend
Let me show you a few maps for Wednesday
These are future-cast radar images for Wednesday. What radar MIGHT look like. These are NAM model images from weatherbell. com
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There will be a level three risk for severe weather on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
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Tuesday into Tuesday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates. If thunderstorms form on Tuesday they could be intense. But, there will be a lid on the atmosphere. Coverage is questionable. But, if a storm forms it would be intense.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates. Severe weather will be possible.
Wednesday night: Thunderstorms possible. Severe weather will be possible early in the night.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated thunderstorm risk.
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday night: Severe weather threat is low. Perhaps a few late night storms.
Saturday: Thunderstorms possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates
Saturday night and Sunday: Thunderstorms are possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
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No major changes in this forecast update.
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The main concern will be thunderstorm chances over the upcoming week. And, some of the storms could be strong/severe. Monitor updates each day. There are a lot of moving parts to the forecast. That means adjustments on the timing of thunderstorms could change.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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This is the seven day rainfall total forecast. Keep in mind that thunderstorms can always produce much higher totals. Especially true if training occurs. Training is when storms repeatedly move over the same area. That can cause flash flooding.
We have storm chances Tuesday night, Wednesday, early Wednesday night, Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday. Again, expect some big rain totals before all is said and done.
This is a broad brushed view of totals through Sunday night.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
